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UTM

UT Martin 28 at Arkansas 63

ARK
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:37 · Jackson Redditt punt for 37 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 33 yds to the TnMar 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+39.7Home team on offense+16.5Score differential+10.4Blowout margin+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Garbage-time factor+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:23: Jaimiee Bowe run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jackson Redditt KICK) — UTM win probability +1.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:15: Brandon Allen pass complete to Damon Mitchell for 49 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:28: Najee Ray run for 21 yds for a TD, (Jackson Redditt KICK) — UTM win probability +1.0 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:11: Trent Garland run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jackson Redditt KICK) — UTM win probability +2.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:10: Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 71 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UTM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 4:33ARK 4th & 9 at UTM 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:48UTM 4th & 6 at UTM 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:07ARK 4th & 12 at UTM 30, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:37UTM 4th & 3 at UTM 8, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:10UTM 4th & 10 at UTM 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:11UTM 4th & 5 at ARK 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:29UTM 4th & 7 at ARK 44, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:57ARK 4th & 4 at midfield, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:17ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 39, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 9 of 9UTM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:20ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:18ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:05ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:23UTM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:15ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:48ARK Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:28UTM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:11UTM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:10ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 6:01ARK Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 0:18ARK Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 14:08ARK Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:42UTM Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2699% → 99%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+32
99.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 32 yds to the TnMar 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
99.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 10 yds to the TnMar 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
99.0%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the TnMar 21Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+4
98.9%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the TnMar 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.9%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+10
98.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 10 yds to the TnMar 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
98.8%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the TnMar 2Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.8%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 2INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:471% → 1%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
98.8%
Trent Garland run for 1 yd to the TnMar 19Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+15
98.7%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 15 yds to the TnMar 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
98.7%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Rod Wright for 6 yds to the TnMar 40Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
98.6%
Trent Garland run for 3 yds to the TnMar 43Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
98.6%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Najee Ray for 2 yds to the TnMar 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
98.6%
William Tanner pass intercepted Rohan Gaines return for 14 yds to the Ark 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:4099% → 98%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
98.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 7 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
98.6%
Kody Walker run for 4 yds to the TnMar 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
98.5%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the TnMar 42Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
98.5%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the TnMar 42Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 4
OPP 42
-5
98.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Henre' Toliver) to the TnMar 47Similar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
98.4%
Toby Baker punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 4INT
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:182% → 2%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
98.3%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 20 yds to the TnMar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.3%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Rod WrightSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
98.2%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 14 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
98.1%
Jaimiee Bowe run for a loss of 3 yards to the TnMar 48Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+27
98.1%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Najee Ray for 27 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
97.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to William Tanner for 3 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+28
97.8%
Jarod Neal pass intercepted Brooks Ellis return for 28 yds to the Ark 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:3598% → 98%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+37
98.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 37 yds to the TnMar 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
98.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 11 yds to the TnMar 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
98.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Damon Mitchell for 13 yds to the TnMar 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.4%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:142% → 2%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
98.3%
Trent Garland run for 1 yd to the TnMar 11Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
98.3%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Rod WrightSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+3
98.3%
Trent Garland run for 3 yds to the TnMar 14Similar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+14
98.2%
Jackson Redditt punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 33 TENN MARTIN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TnMar 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:3598% → 99%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
98.4%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the TnMar 23Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
98.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-7
98.3%
Brandon Allen sacked by Caleb Counce for a loss of 7 yards to the TnMar 30Similar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+18
98.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 18 yds to the TnMar 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
98.2%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the TnMar 5Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
99.0%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 8TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 2:331% → 3%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
98.9%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Rod WrightSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
98.9%
Trent Garland run for 3 yds to the TnMar 17Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+21
98.9%
Jarod Neal run for 21 yds to the TnMar 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
98.8%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Kyle Kerrick for 5 yds to the TnMar 43Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+31
98.7%
Jarod Neal pass complete to CJ McElrath for 31 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
97.4%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jackson Redditt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0498% → 99%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
97.7%
Kody Walker run for 21 yds to the TnMar 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
99.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Damon Mitchell for 49 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
98.9%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Kyle Kerrick, broken up by Brooks EllisSimilar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+3
98.9%
Trent Garland run for 3 yds to the TnMar 4Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+4
98.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Kyle Kerrick for 4 yds to the TnMar 8Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 3
OWN 8
+33
98.9%
Jackson Redditt punt for 37 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 33 yds to the TnMar 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3999% → 100%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
99.2%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the TnMar 3Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
99.6%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 12TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:070% → 1%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
99.8%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Rod Wright for 25 yds to the TnMar 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.7%
Najee Ray run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 7
50
0
99.7%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Ben AxlineSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 7
50
+20
99.7%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Rod Wright for 20 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
99.7%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Najee Ray for 9 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+21
98.6%
Najee Ray run for 21 yds for a TD, (Jackson Redditt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 19Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+5
99.2%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 14TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:381% → 4%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
98.8%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 10 yds to the TnMar 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
98.8%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 24 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
98.6%
Trent Garland run for 9 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+20
98.6%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Rod Wright for 20 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
98.5%
Trent Garland run for 19 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.9%
Trent Garland run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jackson Redditt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4697% → 99%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+71
99.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 71 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:521% → 1%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Najee Ray run for no gain to the TnMar 25Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Rod WrightSimilar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Rod WrightSimilar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Jackson Redditt punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:5699% → 100%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
99.0%
Alex Collins run for 16 yds to the TnMar 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
99.1%
Alex Collins run for 24 yds to the TnMar 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Damon Mitchell for 4 yds to the TnMar 19Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+2
99.2%
Kody Walker run for 12 yds to the TnMar 7 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Anthony Antwine) to the TnMar 17Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+16
99.2%
Kody Walker run for 16 yds to the TnMar 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.2%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the TnMar 1Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
99.2%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the TnMar 3Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Brandon Allen run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:150% → 0%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
99.8%
Neal, Jarod pass complete to Weathers, Caylon for 7 yards to the TENNMARTIN15, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding (Toliver, Henre') 10 yards to the TENNMARTIN18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNMARTIN.Similar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Najee Ray run for 1 yd to the TnMar 19Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+11
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to James Ratliff for 11 yds to the TnMar 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 7 yds to the TnMar 37Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Rod WrightSimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+28
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 28 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Najee Ray for 7 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-5
99.9%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to William TannerSimilar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Kyle KerrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+63
99.9%
Alex Collins run for 63 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Najee Ray for 14 yds to the TnMar 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
99.9%
Najee Ray run for a loss of 2 yards to the TnMar 32Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Najee Ray run for 3 yds to the TnMar 35 Najee Ray fumbled, forced by Dre Greenlaw, recovered by Ark Hjalte FroholdtSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 35 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Rodarius Houston for 8 yds to the TnMar 43Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to William Tanner for 1 yd to the TnMar 44Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Trent Garland run for 9 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
100.0%
Trent Garland run for 3 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Kyle KerrickSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Rodarius HoustonSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Jackson Redditt punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ark 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 47 yds · 4:23100% → 100%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
100.0%
Denzell Evans run for 7 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+3
99.9%
Denzell Evans run for 3 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+31
100.0%
Denzell Evans run for 31 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
100.0%
Denzell Evans run for 1 yd to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-1
100.0%
Juan Day run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+6
100.0%
Juan Day run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 4
50
0
100.0%
Toby Baker punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 24TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:040% → 0%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to William Tanner for 15 yds to the TnMar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Rod Wright for 8 yds to the TnMar 43Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Rod Wright for 5 yds to the TnMar 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Najee Ray for no gain to the TnMar 48Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
100.0%
Najee Ray run for 4 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+9
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Brett Thompson for 9 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Kyle Kerrick for 19 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to William Tanner for 8 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Ben Axline for 12 yds for a TD, (Jackson Redditt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
100.0%
Denzell Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+7
100.0%
Denzell Evans run for 7 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+3
100.0%
Juan Day run for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+9
100.0%
Juan Day run for 9 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:10
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 71 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q3 12:11
Trent Garland run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jackson Redditt KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q2 6:15
Brandon Allen pass complete to Damon Mitchell for 49 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com