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BALL

Ball State 23 at Texas A&M 56

TA&M
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · Riley Neal pass complete to Dylan Curry for 7 yds to the TexAM 16 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Pregame prior+0.0Home team on offense+36.0Score differential+29.6Blowout margin+18.1Garbage-time factor+10.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:06: Josh Reynolds 3 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +0.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:06: Brice Dolezal 33 Yd Run (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +0.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 3:45: De'Vante Harris 40 Yd Interception Return (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +0.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 13:16: Jordan Davis 3 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 9:13: Jeremy Tabuyo 20 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Daniel LaCamera Kick) — TA&M win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:59BALL 4th & 4 at TA&M 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:20BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:33BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:20TA&M 4th & 9 at TA&M 37, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:36BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 19, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:20BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 44, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:58BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 32, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:39BALL 4th & 14 at TA&M 26, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:00TA&M 4th & 4 at BALL 40, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:56TA&M 4th & 18 at BALL 42, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:42BALL 4th & 3 at TA&M 3, down 36
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:59TA&M 4th & 1 at BALL 19, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:02BALL 4th & 2 at TA&M 23, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 8 of 8BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:24TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:06TA&M Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:06TA&M Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:45TA&M Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:16TA&M Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:13TA&M Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:39TA&M Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:38BALL Touchdown, down 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:28TA&M Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:34BALL Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:3196% → 96%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
96.1%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+14
96.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 14 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
95.9%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-4
95.9%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+14
95.8%
Kyle Allen run for 14 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+30
95.8%
Tra Carson run for 30 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.7%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
Tra Carson 1 Yd Run (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2FG
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:164% → 5%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
95.7%
Darian Green run for 47 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
95.6%
Darian Green run for 27 yds to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.5%
Jack Milas run for no gain to the TexAM 1Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
95.5%
Darian Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 3Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
95.4%
Teddy Williamson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 4Similar
Q1 9:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
95.2%
Morgan Hagee 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:4495% → 95%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
95.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 6 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+13
95.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Damion Ratley for 13 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
95.1%
Kyle Allen sacked by TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 41 Kyle Allen fumbled, recovered by TexAM Kyle Allen , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+16
95.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 16 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
95.0%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+28
95.0%
Tra Carson pass complete to Kyle Allen for 28 yds to the BalSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
94.9%
Tra Carson run for 7 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.3%
Josh Reynolds 3 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:375% → 5%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
95.1%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (Steven Bell) to the BalSt 18Similar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 15
OWN 18
0
95.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+5
95.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
95.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
95.1%
Alex Egan punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:0495% → 96%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
95.2%
Brice Dolezal run for no gain to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
95.2%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Jordan DavisSimilar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+13
95.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 13 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.1%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
96.0%
Brice Dolezal 33 Yd Run (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:104% → 4%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.9%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
95.9%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+40
96.3%
De'Vante Harris 40 Yd Interception Return (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:074% → 4%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.4%
Teddy Williamson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
96.4%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
96.5%
Teddy Williamson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+11
96.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 47 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 11 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0597% → 97%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
96.7%
Kyle Allen sacked by Joshua Posley for a loss of 7 yards to the TexAM 29Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+8
96.7%
Tra Carson run for 8 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
96.7%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
96.5%
Shane Tripucka punt for 46 yds, downed at the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:414% → 4%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
96.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
96.6%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
96.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+56
96.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 51 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 56 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:0897% → 98%
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
96.8%
Kyle Allen run for 4 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
96.4%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
96.1%
Kyle Allen run for 2 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.2%
Jordan Davis 3 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:493% → 3%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.3%
Milas, Jack pass incomplete to Williams, Jordan, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Williams, Brandon) 15 yards to the BALLST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BALLST.Similar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
96.8%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
96.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
96.7%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
97.1%
Alex Egan punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:0298% → 99%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
98.2%
Kwame Etwi run for 4 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+7
98.2%
Kwame Etwi run for 7 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
98.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 20 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
98.3%
Allen, Kyle pass complete to Niederhofer, Boone for 13 yards to the BALLST29, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Gennesy, Avery) 10 yards to the TEXASAM48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+11
98.3%
Kwame Etwi run for 11 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+3
98.3%
Kwame Etwi run for 3 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+18
98.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 18 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
98.8%
Jeremy Tabuyo 20 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Daniel LaCamera Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.1%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
99.1%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 2 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.2%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 49 yds, downed at the TexAM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 5:0699% → 100%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
99.1%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Speedy Noil for 9 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 1
OWN 28
0
99.1%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
99.1%
Brice Dolezal run for 3 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
99.2%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Edward Pope for 9 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+12
99.2%
Brice Dolezal run for 12 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.2%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.2%
Brice Dolezal run for 4 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+8
99.2%
Kyler Murray run for 8 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.3%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
99.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Jamal Jeffery for 1 yd to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+15
99.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Speedy Noil for 15 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
99.4%
Brice Dolezal run for 6 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+3
99.4%
Brice Dolezal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
99.4%
Brice Dolezal run for 1 yd to the BalSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.5%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Brice DolezalSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.6%
Christian Kirk 10 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Daniel LaCamera Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:251% → 0%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Teddy Williamson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 3 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.7%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:170% → 1%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
99.6%
Teddy Williamson run for 9 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+14
99.6%
Riley Neal run for 14 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.6%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+15
99.6%
Neal, Riley pass incomplete to Hogue, Jordan, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Harvey, Nick) 15 yards to the TEXASAM33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BALLST.Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
99.5%
Darian Green run for 6 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (Alonzo Williams) to the TexAM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
99.5%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (Drake Miller) to the TexAM 18Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+12
99.6%
Riley Neal run for 12 yds to the TexAM 6Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
99.5%
Darian Green 6 Yd Run (Morgan Hagee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.7%
Jamal Jeffery run for 4 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+7
99.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 7 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
99.7%
Kwame Etwi run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 24Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+4
99.7%
Kwame Etwi run for 4 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-7
99.7%
Kyler Murray sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 7 yards to the TexAM 22 Kyler Murray fumbled, forced by Anthony Winbush, recovered by BalSt Anthony Winbush , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
99.6%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-6
99.6%
Riley Neal sacked by Qualen Cunningham for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 26Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 14
OPP 26
0
99.8%
Darian Green run for no gain to the TexAM 26Similar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+43
99.7%
Morgan Hagee 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Brice Dolezal run for no gain to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.8%
Brice Dolezal run for 1 yd to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 9
OPP 45
-5
99.8%
Murray, Kyler pass complete to Jeffery, Jamal for 45 yards to the BALLST0, PENALTY TEXASAM ineligible downfield on pass (Gustafson, J.J.) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 14
50
+10
99.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Edward Pope for 10 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+6
99.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Sabian Holmes for 6 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
99.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Jamal Jeffery for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 36Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
99.8%
Brice Dolezal run for no gain to the BalSt 36Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 12
OPP 36
-6
99.8%
Kyler Murray sacked by Kevin Willis for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Shane Tripucka punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20FG
16 plays · 77 yds · 6:080% → 0%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
99.9%
Riley Neal run for 13 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 7 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 6 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+7
99.9%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
99.9%
James Gilbert run for 12 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 6 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+4
99.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 4 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
99.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 15 yds to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the TexAM 2Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
99.9%
Riley Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 3Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
99.8%
Morgan Hagee 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 3 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+42
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 42 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Kyler Murray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 13 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
99.9%
Murray, Kyler pass incomplete to Holmes, Sabian, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Martin, Koda) 10 yards to the BALLST28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+27
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 27 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 0
OWN 1
0
100.0%
Koda Martin 0 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel LaCamera Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
100.0%
Riley Neal run for 14 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
100.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Dylan Curry for 8 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
100.0%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+45
100.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 45 yds to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the TexAM 1Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
James Gilbert 1 Yd Run (Morgan Hagee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 5:16100% → 100%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.9%
Brice Dolezal run for 9 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Brice Dolezal run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Brice Dolezal run for 5 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
100.0%
Brice Dolezal run for 2 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+14
100.0%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Speedy Noil for 14 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
100.0%
Kwame Etwi run for 3 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
100.0%
Brice Dolezal run for 2 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+4
100.0%
Jake Hubenak run for 4 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
100.0%
Brice Dolezal run for no gain to the BalSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 65 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
100.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+32
100.0%
James Gilbert run for 32 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
100.0%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+13
100.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 13 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+8
100.0%
Riley Neal run for 8 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+7
100.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Dylan Curry for 7 yds to the TexAM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
100.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:16
Jordan Davis 3 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)
+2.1
TD · Q1 5:06
Brice Dolezal 33 Yd Run (Taylor Bertolet Kick)
+0.8
TD · Q2 9:13
Jeremy Tabuyo 20 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Daniel LaCamera Kick)
+0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com