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UK

Kentucky 26 at South Carolina 22

SC
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Sean Kelly punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Home team on offense−3.0Pregame prior+11.2Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:49: Mikel Horton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +2.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:48: Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +5.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:17: Patrick Towles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +11.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:18: Elliott Fry 29 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +5.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:09: Jerell Adams 33 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — SC win probability +20.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00SC 4th & 7 at SC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:56UK 4th & 4 at SC 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:44SC 4th & 5 at SC 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00SC 4th & 13 at SC 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:02UK 4th & 1 at SC 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−1.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−6.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:29UK 4th & 12 at SC 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:46SC 4th & 11 at UK 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54UK 4th & 11 at UK 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:13SC 4th & 8 at UK 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−7.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:13UK 4th & 12 at UK 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−3.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:18SC 4th & 8 at UK 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−7.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:18UK 4th & 5 at UK 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:14SC 4th & 3 at UK 3, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−10.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:14UK 4th & 3 at UK 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:58SC 4th & 2 at UK 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−5.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−3.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:09UK 4th & 9 at UK 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−2.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:03SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:49UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:48UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:17UK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.9%
Connor Mitch run for 7 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
64.9%
Brandon Wilds run for 10 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
64.9%
Connor Mitch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
64.9%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 3 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
64.9%
Connor Mitch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
64.9%
Sean Kelly punt for 53 yds, downed at the Kent 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
64.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+1
65.0%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 3Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+14
64.9%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Skai Moore return for 14 yds to the Kent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.1%
Connor Mitch run for 1 yd for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:0734% → 37%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
65.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 9 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+14
65.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 14 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
65.5%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
65.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 10 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
65.4%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the SCaro 44Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
65.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+5
65.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Mikel Horton for 5 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+19
65.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 19 yds to the SCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
65.3%
Mikel Horton run for 12 yds to the SCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
63.3%
Mikel Horton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
64.2%
Brandon Wilds run for 7 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+2
64.3%
Brandon Wilds run for 2 yds to the SCaro 20Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+14
64.0%
Connor Mitch pass intercepted by Denzil Ware at the SC21, Denzil Ware return to the SC21, QB hurry by Josh Forrest, PENALTY UK roughing passer (Josh Forrest) 14 yards to the SC34, 1ST DOWN SC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
64.3%
Brandon Wilds run for 6 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-1
64.8%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 39Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
64.4%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Pharoh Cooper, broken up by Cody QuinnSimilar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
64.0%
Sean Kelly punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:0236% → 43%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
63.8%
Stanley Williams run for 24 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.9%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
63.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 4 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+17
63.0%
Stanley Williams run for 17 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
62.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+18
62.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 18 yds to the SCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
62.4%
Jojo Kemp run for 9 yds to the SCaro 2Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
56.7%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:4859% → 57%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
58.5%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 17 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
59.3%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 37Similar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+6
58.5%
David Williams run for 6 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+4
59.3%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-8
58.5%
Connor Mitch sacked by Chris Westry for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
56.7%
Sean Kelly punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8FG
20 plays · 59 yds · 6:4544% → 51%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
56.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
56.4%
Jojo Kemp run for 7 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
55.7%
Jojo Kemp run for 5 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
55.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 27 yds to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
55.1%
Patrick Towles sacked by Darius English for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 35Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+8
55.4%
Jojo Kemp run for 8 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+13
54.2%
Stanley Williams run for 13 yds to the SCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
53.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 3 yds to the SCaro 11Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-5
53.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 16Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+5
53.8%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the SCaro 11Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+6
54.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 6 yds Stanley Williams fumbled, forced by Jordan Diggs, recovered by KentSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+1
55.0%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the SCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 4
OPP 0
0
53.7%
PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY SC unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
53.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete, broken up by Skai MooreSimilar
Q2 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
53.7%
S. Williams rush for loss of 3 yards to the SC7 (Jonathan Walton), PENALTY UK holding (Jon Toth) 10 yards to the SC14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
53.8%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 12Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
50.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jojo Kemp for 2 yds Jojo Kemp fumbled, forced by Jonathan Walton,Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
49.3%
Austin MacGinnis 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3750% → 47%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
49.9%
Brandon Wilds run for 9 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
50.9%
Brandon Wilds run for 4 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
50.4%
Connor Mitch run for 7 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
51.4%
Brandon Wilds run for 2 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+10
51.1%
Brandon Wilds run for 10 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
52.0%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 24 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
53.4%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+3
53.4%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 4
OPP 17
-6
52.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 24 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SCaro Connor MitchSimilar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+42
46.8%
Elliott Fry 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:2954% → 76%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
46.1%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+20
46.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 20 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+43
44.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 43 yds to the SCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
43.8%
Jojo Kemp run for 6 yds to the SCaro 5Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+4
43.8%
Jojo Kemp run for 4 yds to the SCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
43.8%
Jojo Kemp run for no gain to the SCaro 1Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.2%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 52 yds · 0:1332% → 34%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
32.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 19 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
34.8%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Brandon WildsSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+33
33.7%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 33 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
28.5%
S. Williams rush for 6 yards to the UK33 (Skai Moore;Jordan Diggs), PENALTY UK holding (Jordan Swindle) 10 yards to the UK17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+2
28.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 2 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 18
OWN 19
+4
28.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 4 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+3
29.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 3 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+24
29.7%
Landon Foster punt for 40 yds , Pharoh Cooper returns for 24 yds to the Kent 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:2530% → 32%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
29.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 16 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
30.5%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jerell Adams, QB hurry by Josh Forrest, PENALTY UK pass interference (Chris Westry) 15 yards to the UK11, 1ST DOWN SC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
30.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 2 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
30.5%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Brandon WildsSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
30.0%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Pharoh Cooper, broken up by Josh ForrestSimilar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
31.6%
Elliott Fry 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
28.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 12 yards to the UK37 (Rashad Fenton), PENALTY UK holding (Zach West) 10 yards to the UK15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+4
28.6%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
28.8%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+4
29.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 4 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
29.8%
Landon Foster punt for 35 yds, downed at the SCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:0628% → 32%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+34
28.1%
Brandon Wilds run for 34 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
29.9%
Brandon Wilds run for 4 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+7
29.9%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 7 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
29.9%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 11Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
29.9%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Pharoh Cooper, broken up by Chris WestrySimilar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
26.3%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jerell Adams, broken up by A.J. StampsSimilar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
31.5%
Elliott Fry 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
30.1%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 24 Team fumbled, recovered by Kent Cole MosierSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
30.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
30.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 4 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
31.4%
Landon Foster punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 4:5329% → 29%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
29.0%
Perry Orth pass complete to Carlton Heard for 31 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
32.1%
Shon Carson run for 11 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
32.1%
Shon Carson run for 4 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-4
32.1%
Shon Carson run for 11 yds to the Kent 2 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Alan Knott) to the Kent 17Similar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
32.1%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jacob August for 7 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
32.1%
Brandon Wilds run for 4 yds to the Kent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
32.1%
Brandon Wilds run for 4 yds to the Kent 2Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
32.1%
Brandon Wilds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
27.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for no gain to the Kent 3Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
29.2%
Elliott Fry 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
23.8%
Sihiem King run for 1 yd to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
24.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete, broken up by Marquavius LewisSimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+46
26.0%
Landon Foster punt for 31 yds, downed at the SOCAROLINA 37 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Isaiah Johnson) to the SCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:4924% → 47%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
24.1%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jerell Adams for 6 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+7
24.9%
Shon Carson run for 7 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
24.9%
Shon Carson run for 3 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
26.8%
Perry Orth sacked by Melvin Lewis for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 33Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+16
22.7%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 16 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
28.1%
Brandon Wilds run for 7 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
29.3%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Deebo SamuelSimilar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
28.9%
Brandon Wilds run for 1 yd to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+10
26.7%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 10 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
47.3%
Jerell Adams 33 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
25.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 16 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
22.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 1 yd to the Kent 42Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
23.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jojo KempSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
23.6%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
26.8%
Landon Foster punt for 47 yds , Pharoh Cooper returns for no gain to the SCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21INT
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:0727% → 30%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+22
26.9%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 22 yds to the SCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
28.0%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jerell Adams for 13 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
31.3%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 6
50
+3
32.5%
Brandon Wilds run for 3 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+10
29.1%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Pharoh Cooper, PENALTY UK holding (J.D. Harmon) 10 yards to the UK37, 1ST DOWN SC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
30.2%
Perry Orth pass intercepted Chris Westry return for 3 yds to the Kent 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 46 yds · 2:5083% → 93%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
16.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+8
17.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 8 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+11
17.3%
Patrick Towles run for 11 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
10.9%
Stanley Williams run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 2
50
+3
9.9%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
10.2%
Stanley Williams run for 25 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
6.1%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 25Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 13
OPP 25
-1
6.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 26Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 14
OPP 26
-2
7.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:09
Jerell Adams 33 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+20.6
TD · Q2 0:17
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-11.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com