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FRES

Fresno State 21 at Ole Miss 73

MISS
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:55 · Garrett Swanson punt for 44 yds , Carlos Davis returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 17 Carlos Davis fumbled, recovered by FrsSt
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Pregame prior+26.2Home team on offense+19.4Score differential+13.2Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:23: Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 50 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +1.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:43: Ryan Buchanan pass intercepted for a TD Shannon Edwards return for 56 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +1.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:15: Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 44 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:00: Chason Virgil pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 9 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +3.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:30: Robert Nkemdiche run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 10:23FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:19FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:56FRES 4th & 27 at FRES 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:04FRES 4th & 7 at MISS 29, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:51MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 35, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:31FRES 4th & 4 at MISS 42, down 28
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:25MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:55FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:44FRES 4th & 8 at MISS 32, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:11MISS 4th & 13 at FRES 20, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:00FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 38, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:50FRES 4th & 2 at MISS 12, down 52
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 10 of 10FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:56MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:26MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:30MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:23MISS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:43FRES Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:15MISS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:00FRES Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:30MISS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:39MISS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:50MISS Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:00FRES Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:40MISS Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 6:24MISS Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 2:4994% → 94%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
94.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 18 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
94.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the Miss 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Miss Chad Kelly Chad Kelly run for 4 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
94.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+2
94.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 12 yds to the Miss 49 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+4
93.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 4 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
93.9%
Chad Kelly run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
93.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+19
93.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
93.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
93.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 14 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:226% → 6%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
93.7%
Zack Greenlee run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-3
93.6%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 4
OWN 26
-5
93.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
93.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:4894% → 94%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
93.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 28 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
93.7%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
93.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 5 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
93.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+10
93.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 10 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.2%
Chad Kelly run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:596% → 6%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.8%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
93.8%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
93.8%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
93.7%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-2
93.8%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
93.8%
Garrett Swanson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 1:4394% → 95%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
94.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Markell PackSimilar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
94.0%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+10
93.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 10 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
94.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+23
94.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 23 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+33
94.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 33 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 16 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:265% → 5%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
95.0%
Marteze Waller run for 18 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
95.1%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-3
95.2%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-15
95.4%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Mike Hilton for a loss of 15 yards to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 27
OWN 26
0
95.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:2195% → 97%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
95.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
50
+50
97.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 50 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:073% → 2%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
97.4%
Zack Greenlee run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 42 Zack Greenlee fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Zack Greenlee for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
97.4%
Zack Greenlee run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
97.4%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+5
97.4%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
97.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Carlos Davis) to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
97.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+1
97.6%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 14
OPP 36
-2
97.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Marteze Waller for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+9
97.8%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 9 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+6
97.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 6 yds to the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:5498% → 98%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
97.9%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 4 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+8
98.0%
DeVante Kincade run for 8 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.0%
DeVante Kincade pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
98.0%
DeVante Kincade pass incomplete to Jaylen WaltonSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
98.1%
DeVante Kincade pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
98.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Da'Mari Scott at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:142% → 2%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
97.8%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
97.9%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+17
97.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 17 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
97.9%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+3
97.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+2
97.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 2 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
98.0%
Garrett Swanson punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11INT TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:4298% → 97%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
98.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jamal Ellis) to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
98.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+3
98.5%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Markell Pack for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+15
98.5%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Dillon Barrett for 15 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
98.6%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Markell Pack for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Ryan Buchanan pass incomplete to Derrick JonesSimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+56
96.9%
Ryan Buchanan pass intercepted for a TD Shannon Edwards return for 56 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2397% → 99%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
97.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 7 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
97.0%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
96.8%
Jeremy Liggins run for 1 yd to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
97.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 7 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+14
97.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 14 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
98.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 44 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13END OF HALF
14 plays · 82 yds · 4:001% → 4%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
99.2%
Marteze Waller run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
98.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+10
98.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 10 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
98.9%
Chason Virgil run for 9 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
98.8%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
98.9%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+37
98.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 37 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
98.6%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 0
OPP 4
-5
98.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Miss 9Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 9 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:583% → 3%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.9%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
97.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
97.1%
Chason Virgil run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-8
97.1%
Garrett Swanson punt for 44 yds , Carlos Davis returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 17 Carlos Davis fumbled, recovered by FrsStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:354% → 3%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
96.5%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+70
96.6%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted C.J. Johnson return for 70 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3898% → 100%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
97.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
97.8%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
97.9%
Chad Kelly run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
97.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Robert Nkemdiche run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17INT TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:451% → 0%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Malique Micenheimer run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+38
99.6%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted for a TD Trae Elston return for 38 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.6%
Malique Micenheimer run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
99.7%
Malique Micenheimer run for no gain to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+13
99.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 13 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
99.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Tee Shepard) to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.7%
Dustin Garrison run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+17
99.7%
Dustin Garrison run for 2 yds to the OLEMISS 49 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 4 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
99.7%
Dustin Garrison run for 2 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-4
99.7%
Dustin Garrison run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
99.7%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
99.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 23 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
99.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 18 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.8%
Akeem Judd run for 27 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Marteze Waller run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+21
99.8%
Marteze Waller run for 21 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.8%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+35
99.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Marteze Waller for 35 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.8%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the Miss 7Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 0
OPP 7
+3
99.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (3 Yards) to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
99.8%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 7Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Marteze Waller for 7 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 6 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+7
99.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 7 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.8%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Derrick Jones for 4 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
99.8%
DeVante Kincade pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+43
99.8%
DeVante Kincade run for 43 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-8
99.9%
DeVante Kincade sacked by Claudell Louis for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 18
OPP 25
+5
99.9%
DeVante Kincade run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
99.9%
Gary Wunderlich 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Malique Micenheimer run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Chason Virgil run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31 Chason Virgil fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Ryan Buchanan run for no gain to the FrsSt 22 Ryan Buchanan fumbled, recovered by Miss Ryan Buchanan run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+13
99.9%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Trey Bledsoe for 13 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24INT TD
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Dustin Garrison run for no gain to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+22
100.0%
Ford Childress pass intercepted for a TD Chief Brown return for 22 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
100.0%
Dustin Garrison run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+6
100.0%
Dustin Garrison run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
100.0%
Dustin Garrison run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
100.0%
Dustin Garrison run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Ford Childress pass incomplete to Kyle RidderingSimilar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Garrett Swanson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 4 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+4
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 4 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 2
OWN 19
0
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for no gain to the Miss 19 Eugene Brazley fumbled, recovered by FrsStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
100.0%
Malique Micenheimer run for 3 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
100.0%
Malique Micenheimer run for 3 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+1
100.0%
Malique Micenheimer run for 1 yd to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+1
100.0%
Malique Micenheimer run for 1 yd to the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
100.0%
D.K. Buford run for 1 yd to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+7
100.0%
D.K. Buford run for 7 yds to the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Chason Virgil pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 9 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
-3
TD · Q1 1:23
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 50 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q2 4:15
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 44 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com