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LSU

LSU 21 at Mississippi State 19

MSST
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Devon Bell 52 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:58: Leonard Fournette run for 26 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — LSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:48: Leonard Fournette run for 18 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — LSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:45: Dak Prescott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +13.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:00: Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MSST win probability +32.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:47: Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 35 — LSU win probability +15.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 11 of 12LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:52MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:38LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:59MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:36MSST 4th & 25 at MSST 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:46MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:46LSU 4th & 16 at LSU 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:15MSST 4th & 10 at LSU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:19LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 39, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:22MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:45LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:43MSST 4th & 10 at LSU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:54LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:04MSST 4th & 6 at LSU 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−7.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:59MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:03LSU 4th & 6 at midfield, up 15
    Close callPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:20MSST 4th & 1 at LSU 41, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−4.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−3.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:36LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 18, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−2.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:18MSST 4th & 13 at LSU 39, down 8
    Close callPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    19.8%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:32LSU 4th & 7 at MSST 43, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−1.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−1.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:32LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:00MSST 4th & 15 at LSU 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−26.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−32.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:37LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:58LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:48LSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:45MSST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:00MSST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0339% → 40%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
39.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
39.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
39.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
39.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+3
39.8%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
40.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0760% → 59%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
40.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
40.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
40.4%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
40.8%
Jamie Keehn punt for 58 yds, downed at the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3141% → 41%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
40.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+2
41.0%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
40.9%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
40.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:1559% → 63%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
40.6%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+2
40.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+10
41.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
40.8%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andy Dodd) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+5
41.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+4
41.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+23
41.4%
Brandon Harris pass complete to DeSean Smith for 23 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
40.8%
Darrel Williams run for 11 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
40.9%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 2:0139% → 38%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
38.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Jamaal Clayborn) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-9
38.7%
Dak Prescott sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+11
38.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 11 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-12
38.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Davon Godchaux for a loss of 12 yards to the MisSt 10Similar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
37.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:3163% → 68%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
37.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 20 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
32.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 26 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5934% → 34%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
33.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+12
33.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 12 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
34.2%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+9
33.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 9 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
33.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
33.7%
Devon Bell punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5468% → 70%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
31.9%
Brandon Harris run for 16 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
31.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
30.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
50
+4
30.2%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-15
29.8%
LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (William Clapp) to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 21
OWN 39
0
30.1%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 21
OWN 39
+5
30.2%
Brandon Harris run for 5 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
30.2%
Jamie Keehn punt for 37 yds, downed at the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:2531% → 31%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
30.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Dontavian Lee for 4 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+10
30.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 10 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
30.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Ashton ShumpertSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+22
30.2%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jamal Adams) to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
31.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
31.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe MorrowSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
31.3%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
30.5%
Devon Bell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:3871% → 72%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
29.2%
Travin Dural run for 17 yds to the LSU 28 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 18Similar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 3
OWN 18
0
28.2%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 18Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 3
OWN 18
0
28.1%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+12
28.6%
Darrel Williams run for 12 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
27.6%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+2
27.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+9
28.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 9 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
27.7%
Jamie Keehn punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5328% → 28%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
28.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
27.8%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+3
27.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+2
27.9%
Devon Bell punt for 43 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 2 yds to the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3072% → 71%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
28.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
28.2%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Derrius GuiceSimilar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
28.8%
Jamie Keehn punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 1:5428% → 30%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
27.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 12 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
29.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 4 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+8
28.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 8 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
28.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+17
27.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 17 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+6
28.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
28.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Ashton ShumpertSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
28.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
27.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Brandon HollowaySimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
30.3%
Westin Graves 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
27.0%
Brandon Harris sacked by Richie Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5671% → 72%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
28.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
28.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+2
28.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to DeSean Smith for 2 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+21
28.5%
Jamie Keehn punt for 36 yds , Fred Ross returns for 21 yds to the LSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:4130% → 32%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
29.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
29.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+10
29.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 10 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
30.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+20
30.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 20 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
30.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
29.3%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the LSU 6Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
27.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
31.8%
Westin Graves 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0771% → 87%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
28.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 20 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
27.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
26.4%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 5
50
+9
25.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 9 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
25.3%
Brandon Harris run for 18 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
24.6%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+18
13.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 18 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3417% → 17%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
17.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-1
18.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
17.2%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
16.9%
Devon Bell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4986% → 87%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
14.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+15
14.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Chris Jones) to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
13.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 6
50
0
12.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 6
50
0
12.2%
Brandon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 6
50
0
13.2%
Jamie Keehn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 4:1015% → 30%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
15.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
15.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Justin Johnson for 9 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+1
15.0%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
14.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+8
15.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 8 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
15.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+7
16.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
50
+1
16.2%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
16.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Brandon HollowaySimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+8
15.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
15.8%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
16.2%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dwayne Thomas) to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
17.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 18 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
17.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 10 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.1%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5477% → 79%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
22.8%
Travin Dural run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 13
OWN 16
-3
22.3%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 13Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 16
OWN 13
+5
21.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
21.3%
Jamie Keehn punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1122% → 20%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
22.4%
LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
25.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+10
25.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 10 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
25.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Ashton ShumpertSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
25.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 4 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-7
25.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Lewis Neal for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
19.6%
Logan Cooke punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:3882% → 89%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
17.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+17
16.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 17 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
15.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-3
15.3%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+14
14.1%
Brandon Harris run for 14 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
12.3%
Darrel Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 13
OPP 49
+3
10.7%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
9.5%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
9.6%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
10.9%
Jamie Keehn punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 1:2514% → 53%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+33
13.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 33 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
17.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 10 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
18.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 15 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
20.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 10 yds to the LSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
20.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 9 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
53.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:1570% → 81%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
30.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+8
26.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
23.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 3
50
0
17.5%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 3
50
+1
16.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-5
17.3%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
18.6%
Jamie Keehn punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26DOWNS
14 plays · 55 yds · 1:2932% → 15%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
32.0%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Arden Key) to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 5
OWN 16
+17
31.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 17 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
29.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 11 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
32.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
28.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 4
50
+11
25.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 11 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
27.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+10
27.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 10 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
34.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
30.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
22.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Dak Prescott) to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 15
OPP 34
0
18.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+52
14.8%
Devon Bell 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:00
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+32.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:47
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 35
-15.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com