Try the model
APSU

Austin Peay 7 at Vanderbilt 47

VAN
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · FirstBank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreAPSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.4VAN 97.6%Ralph Webb 9 Yd pass from JohnnyMcCrary (Two-Point Run ConversionFailed)AWAY 7 - HOME 19 · Q2 1:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:07 · Ralph Webb 9 Yd pass from Johnny McCrary (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior+37.7Home team on offense+13.6Score differential+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Garbage-time factor+4.2Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:26: Trey Taylor pass complete to Rashaan Coleman for 14 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield KICK) — APSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:32: Ralph Webb run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:07: Ralph Webb 9 Yd pass from Johnny McCrary (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — VAN win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:10: Ralph Webb run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:45: Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 26 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5APSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 14:55APSU 4th & 6 at APSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:41VAN 4th & 1 at APSU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:54APSU 4th & 9 at APSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:47VAN 4th & 1 at APSU 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00APSU 4th & 2 at VAN 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:26APSU 4th & 7 at APSU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:44VAN 4th & 6 at APSU 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:23APSU 4th & 1 at APSU 34, down 6
    Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:10APSU 4th & 11 at APSU 40, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:46VAN 4th & 3 at APSU 32, up 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:42APSU 4th & 21 at APSU 32, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:11APSU 4th & 7 at APSU 22, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00APSU 4th & 7 at APSU 45, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:15APSU 4th & 7 at VAN 11, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:08VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 12, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:13APSU 4th & 6 at APSU 15, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:30APSU 4th & 11 at APSU 34, down 40
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6APSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:26APSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:32VAN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:07VAN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:10VAN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:45VAN Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:00VAN Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:30VAN Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.1%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the APeay 21Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 5
OWN 21
0
99.1%
Trey Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+7
99.1%
Kendall Morris run for 7 yds to the APeay 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.1%
Kendall Morris run for no gain to the APeay 28Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.1%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Wesley Thomas for 4 yds to the APeay 32Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Trey Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Evan Toby punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2DOWNS
17 plays · 61 yds · 7:2299% → 98%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
98.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 8 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+1
98.9%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 43Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
98.9%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
98.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 8 yds to the APeay 46Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
99.0%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the APeay 45Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
99.0%
Dallas Rivers run for 3 yds to the APeay 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.0%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, broken up by Donovan JacksonSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+17
99.0%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Darrius Sims for 17 yds to the APeay 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
99.0%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Ralph Webb for 6 yds to the APeay 19Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+2
99.0%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the APeay 17Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
99.0%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the APeay 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
99.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the APeay 19Similar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+3
99.0%
Dallas Rivers run for 3 yds to the APeay 16Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+4
99.0%
Dallas Rivers run for 4 yds to the APeay 12Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+7
98.3%
Johnny McCrary run for 7 yds to the APeay 5Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
98.3%
Ladarius Banks run for no gain to the APeay 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
98.1%
Taye Davis run for 4 yds to the APeay 9Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+2
98.1%
Taye Davis run for 2 yds to the APeay 11Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
98.2%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Wesley ThomasSimilar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 4
OWN 11
-5
98.2%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the APeay 6Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 9
OWN 6
0
98.2%
Evan Toby punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APeay 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:4198% → 98%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
98.1%
Johnny McCrary run for 11 yds to the APeay 31 Johnny McCrary fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
98.1%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the APeay 24Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+1
98.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the APeay 23Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
98.0%
Johnny McCrary run for 1 yd to the APeay 22Similar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+40
97.7%
Tommy Openshaw 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:472% → 3%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.7%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Jared Beard for 5 yds to the APeay 30Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
97.6%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Juwan Davis for 6 yds to the APeay 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
97.5%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Jared Beard for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+6
97.5%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Wesley Thomas for 6 yds to the APeay 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
97.4%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Rashaan Coleman for 6 yds to the APeay 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.4%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Wesley ThomasSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
97.4%
Julian Franklin run for 9 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-1
97.4%
Julian Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
97.5%
Trey Taylor punt for 30 yds , Ryan White returns for no gain to the Vandy 17 Ryan White fumbled, recovered by APeay Juwan DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:503% → 4%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
96.8%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Rashaan ColemanSimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
96.8%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Jared Beard for 3 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
95.8%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Rashaan Coleman for 14 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:4696% → 97%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
96.1%
VANDERBILT Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 17Similar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+43
96.1%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to DeAndre Woods for 43 yds to the APeay 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
96.5%
Johnny McCrary run for 6 yds to the APeay 34Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+15
96.6%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Darrius Sims for 15 yds to the APeay 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
96.6%
Darrius Sims run for 1 yd to the APeay 18Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+11
96.6%
Ralph Webb run for 11 yds to the APeay 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
96.6%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the APeay 5Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
96.6%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the APeay 3Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.5%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
96.3%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Juwan DavisSimilar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
96.3%
Kendall Morris run for 2 yds to the APeay 19Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+1
96.4%
Justin Roberson run for 1 yd to the APeay 20Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+8
96.5%
Evan Toby punt for 34 yds , Torren McGaster returns for 8 yds to the APeay 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0296% → 96%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
96.2%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 22 yds to the APeay 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
96.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the APeay 29Similar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+6
96.2%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the APeay 23Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
96.3%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+3
96.1%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Kris Kentera for 3 yds to the APeay 20Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
96.4%
Tommy Openshaw 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:214% → 4%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.2%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Jared Beard for 6 yds to the APeay 31Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-6
96.0%
Trey Taylor run for a loss of 6 yards to the APeay 25 Trey Taylor fumbled, recovered by APeay Julian FranklinSimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.2%
Trey Taylor run for 9 yds to the APeay 34Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
96.1%
Evan Toby punt for 34 yds , Torren McGaster returns for no gain to the Vandy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 1:0796% → 98%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
96.1%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 6 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+9
96.3%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
96.3%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 21 yds to the APeay 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
96.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 16 yds to the APeay 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
96.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Ralph Webb for 7 yds to the APeay 9Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
97.6%
Ralph Webb 9 Yd pass from Johnny McCrary (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 24Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5097% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
97.0%
Darrius Sims run for 26 yds to the APeay 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
97.2%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 4 yds to the APeay 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
97.2%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+42
97.1%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 42 yds to the APeay 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.2%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the APeay 2Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.7%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.1%
Taye Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 23Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+18
98.1%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Wesley Thomas for 18 yds to the APeay 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
97.9%
Trey Taylor sacked by Andrew Williamson for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 40Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
98.0%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Jared BeardSimilar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Rashaan ColemanSimilar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Evan Toby punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:3099% → 99%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
98.7%
Dallas Rivers run for 4 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+25
98.7%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 25 yds to the APeay 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
98.8%
Dallas Rivers run for 5 yds to the APeay 34Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+2
98.7%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 2 yds to the APeay 32Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+50
98.6%
Tommy Openshaw 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 2:042% → 2%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
97.9%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Wesley Thomas for 6 yds to the APeay 38Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
97.8%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Rashaan Coleman for 3 yds to the APeay 41Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
97.8%
Trey Taylor run for 2 yds to the APeay 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
97.9%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Juwan Davis for 3 yds to the APeay 46 AUSTINPEAY Penalty, Offensive holding (Ethan Self) to the APeay 36Similar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 17
OWN 36
+7
98.0%
Kendall Morris run for 7 yds to the APeay 43Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
97.9%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Jared BeardSimilar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-11
98.0%
Trey Taylor sacked by Arnold Tarpley for a loss of 11 yards to the APeay 32Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 21
OWN 32
+17
98.1%
Evan Toby punt for 36 yds , Torren McGaster returns for 17 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:5899% → 100%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
98.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 9 yds to the APeay 42Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
98.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 5 yds to the APeay 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
98.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 6 yds to the APeay 31Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-10
98.9%
[SH], Johnny McCrary rush for 3 yards to the APSU28, out-of-bounds (SCHOLATO,Gunnar), PENALTY VANDY holding (Jake Bernstein) 10 yards to the APSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+6
98.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Dallas Rivers for 6 yds to the APeay 35Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+9
98.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to DeAndre Woods for 9 yds to the APeay 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 26 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:280% → 0%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
99.8%
Julian Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 17Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
99.8%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Jermer BraswellSimilar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 12
OWN 17
0
99.8%
Justin Roberson run for no gain to the APeay 17Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 12
OWN 17
+5
99.8%
TOBY,Evan punt 23 yards to the APSU40, downed, PENALTY VANDY roughing the kicker 5 yards to the APSU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+4
99.8%
Evan Toby punt for 53 yds , Torren McGaster returns for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.8%
Dallas Rivers run for 2 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
99.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 9 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 11 yds to the APeay 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
99.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 15 yds to the APeay 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 7 yds to the APeay 27Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+11
99.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 11 yds to the APeay 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Johnny McCrary run for 16 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Jared Beard for 8 yds to the APeay 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
99.9%
Trey Taylor pass complete to James Coleman for 9 yds to the APeay 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.9%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Jermer Braswell for 4 yds to the APeay 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-4
99.9%
Trey Taylor sacked by Charles Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the APeay 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Jermer Braswell for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
50
-5
99.9%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, false start (Byron Glass) to the APeay 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Evan Toby punt for 44 yds, downed at the Vandy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.9%
Dallas Rivers run for no gain to the Vandy 11Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
99.9%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, broken up by Tyler SchneiderSimilar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+17
99.9%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 17 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
99.9%
Dallas Rivers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Wade Freebeck pass intercepted James Bond return for 1 yd to the Vandy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 29 yds · 3:030% → 0%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Julian Franklin run for 3 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Julian Franklin run for 7 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.9%
Julian Franklin run for 1 yd to the Vandy 29Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Jermer BraswellSimilar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+15
99.9%
[SH], TAYLOR,Trey pass incomplete to BRASWELL,Jermer (LaDarius Wiley), PENALTY VANDY pass interference (LaDarius Wiley) 15 yards to the VANDY14, 1ST DOWN APSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.9%
Julian Franklin run for 1 yd to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
99.9%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Mikal Ballard for 2 yds to the Vandy 11Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Rashaan Coleman, broken up by Taurean FergusonSimilar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 7
OPP 11
0
100.0%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Jared Beard, broken up by Jahmel McIntoshSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
100.0%
Dallas Rivers run for 1 yd to the Vandy 12Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Wade Freebeck pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to Dallas Rivers, broken up by Zach StuartSimilar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 9
OWN 12
+77
100.0%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 66 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VANDERBILT 22 AUSTINPEAY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Hunter Lane) to the APeay 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
100.0%
Taye Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 9Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+2
100.0%
Trey Taylor run for 2 yds to the APeay 11Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+4
100.0%
Taye Davis run for 4 yds to the APeay 15Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+36
100.0%
Evan Toby punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APeay 15 , Ryan White returns for 36 yds to the APeay 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 25TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
100.0%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Chandler Dorrell for 9 yds to the APeay 6Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 1
OPP 6
0
100.0%
Dallas Rivers run for no gain to the APeay 6Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
100.0%
Dallas Rivers run for 2 yds to the APeay 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Dallas Rivers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
100.0%
Taye Davis run for a loss of 6 yards to the APeay 29Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+7
100.0%
Taye Davis run for 7 yds to the APeay 36Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+3
100.0%
Taye Davis run for 3 yds to the APeay 39Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 6
OWN 39
-5
100.0%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the APeay 34Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Trey Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:10
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 1:07
Ralph Webb 9 Yd pass from Johnny McCrary (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+1.4
TD · Q2 7:32
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com