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NEV

Nevada 27 at Texas A&M 44

TA&M
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:38 · Alex Boy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Pregame prior+33.9Home team on offense+7.4Score differential+2.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:23: Josh Reynolds 25 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +2.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:45: Josh Reynolds 10 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:58: Brent Zuzo 27 Yd Field Goal — NEV win probability +2.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:02: Jeremy Tabuyo 15 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:33: Don Jackson 9 Yd pass from Tyler Stewart (Brent Zuzo Kick) — NEV win probability +5.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 11:05NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:38TA&M 4th & 20 at TA&M 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:07NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:51TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:28NEV 4th & 1 at TA&M 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:30NEV 4th & 11 at TA&M 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:19NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:38NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:57TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 26, up 11
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:22NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:05TA&M 4th & 3 at NEV 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:59NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:58NEV 4th & 6 at TA&M 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:15TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:04NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:57TA&M 4th & 3 at NEV 3, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−2.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:57NEV 4th & 24 at TA&M 39, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:40TA&M 4th & 6 at NEV 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:41TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:28NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:07TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:23TA&M Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:45TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:02TA&M Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:20NEV Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:33NEV Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:0796% → 96%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
95.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Damion Ratley for 17 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
95.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Damion Ratley for 4 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+20
95.7%
Tra Carson run for 20 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
95.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 20 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
95.7%
Tra Carson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
95.6%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.6%
Kyle Allen 1 Yd Run (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:255% → 5%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.5%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
95.5%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
95.5%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
95.4%
Alex Boy punt for 68 yds, downed at the TexAM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:2195% → 95%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+17
95.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 17 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
95.3%
Kyle Allen run for 22 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
95.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 3 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-13
95.3%
Kyle Allen sacked by TEAM for a loss of 13 yards to the TexAM 38 Kyle Allen fumbled, recovered by TexAM TEXAS A&M Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the TexAM 38Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 20
OWN 38
0
95.2%
Kyle Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 20
OWN 38
0
95.1%
Drew Kaser punt for 48 yds, downed at the Nevad 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:285% → 5%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
95.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+24
95.2%
James Butler run for 24 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
95.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 3 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-4
94.9%
Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+8
94.9%
Tyler Stewart run for 8 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 3
OWN 45
-2
94.8%
Alex Boy punt for 46 yds , Speedy Noil returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 43 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Block (3 Yards) to the TexAM 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1295% → 95%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
94.8%
Kyle Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
94.8%
Brandon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 7Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
94.6%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 7
OWN 7
+12
94.5%
Drew Kaser punt for 45 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 12 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:196% → 7%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
94.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 3 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+1
94.3%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 36Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-5
94.2%
NEVADA Penalty, Delay of Game (Tyler Stewart) to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+10
94.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 10 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+31
92.9%
Don Jackson 31 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:1493% → 94%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
93.2%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
93.1%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Holding (9 Yards) to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
93.2%
Tra Carson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+5
93.3%
Kyle Allen run for 5 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
93.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 27 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
93.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Speedy Noil for 5 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
94.1%
Speedy Noil 10 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 2:306% → 8%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
93.4%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+13
93.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 13 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+26
93.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 26 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
92.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Holding (De'Vante Harris) to the TexAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
92.6%
Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 11Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
92.5%
Tyler Stewart run for no gain to the TexAM 11 Tyler Stewart fumbled, recovered by Nevad Tyler Stewart Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
92.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
92.0%
Brent Zuzo 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 0:5292% → 94%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
92.1%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+48
92.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 48 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
94.3%
Josh Reynolds 25 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:536% → 6%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
93.6%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-1
93.6%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 13Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 11
OWN 13
-5
93.8%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 8Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 16
OWN 8
0
93.8%
Alex Boy punt for 40 yds, downed at the Nevad 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11FUMBLE
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:3894% → 94%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.2%
Ricky Seals-Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
94.1%
Tra Carson run for 15 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
94.1%
Kyle Allen run for 3 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+10
94.0%
Kyle Allen run for 10 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
94.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 8 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
94.3%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the Nevad 12Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+4
94.0%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
94.2%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Avery GennesySimilar
Q2 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
94.2%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 9 Tra Carson fumbled, recovered by Nevad Elijah Moody , return for 4 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:456% → 6%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+25
93.8%
James Butler run for 25 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
93.4%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+5
93.5%
Tyler Stewart run for 5 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+5
93.2%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
93.6%
Alex Boy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3394% → 93%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
93.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 9 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 1
OWN 28
-5
93.8%
Kyle Allen sacked by Lenny Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+3
93.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Brandon Williams for 3 yds to the TexAM 26Similar
Q2 3:57
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
93.4%
Drew Kaser punt for 68 yds, downed at the Nevad 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:276% → 6%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
94.3%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 9
-1
94.3%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 8Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
94.4%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 8
OWN 8
+19
94.5%
Alex Boy punt for 43 yds , Speedy Noil returns for 19 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1294% → 95%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
94.3%
Kyle Allen run for 11 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
94.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Damion Ratley for 4 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
94.3%
Kyle Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+3
94.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Damion Ratley for 3 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+32
94.8%
Taylor Bertolet 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:526% → 6%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
94.3%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-1
94.3%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Tyler Stewart pass intercepted Donovan Wilson return for no gain to the Nevad 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:0495% → 98%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
94.8%
Kyle Allen run for 10 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
94.8%
Tra Carson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+1
94.7%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 10Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
98.0%
Josh Reynolds 10 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:383% → 3%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.5%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
97.4%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
97.5%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
97.5%
Alex Boy punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Speedy Noil at the TexAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:5398% → 98%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
98.1%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-4
98.0%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 12Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 14
OWN 12
+10
98.0%
Kyle Allen pass intercepted Jaden Sawyer return for 10 yds to the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:513% → 5%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
97.3%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the TexAM 8Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 8
-5
97.0%
James Butler run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 13Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+3
97.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 3 yds to the TexAM 10Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
95.1%
Brent Zuzo 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3797% → 96%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.5%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
96.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+10
96.2%
Drew Kaser punt for 49 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 10 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:045% → 4%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
95.5%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
95.6%
Tyler Stewart run for 3 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
95.6%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
95.6%
Alex Boy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Speedy Noil at the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 2:5897% → 99%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
96.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Tra CarsonSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
96.5%
Tra Carson run for 9 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+5
96.6%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.7%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
96.5%
Brice Dolezal run for 11 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
96.9%
Brice Dolezal run for 9 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+11
96.9%
Kyle Allen run for 11 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
97.0%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Randy Uzoma) to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
97.0%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
97.0%
Tra Carson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.4%
Jeremy Tabuyo 15 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:402% → 5%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.0%
James Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 23Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
98.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+12
97.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
98.0%
James Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+33
98.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 33 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
97.8%
Tyler Stewart run for 10 yds to the TexAM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
97.8%
Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 27Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+27
95.5%
Hasaan Henderson 27 Yd pass from Tyler Stewart (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:0997% → 99%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
97.0%
Tra Carson run for 12 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
97.4%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
97.4%
Tra Carson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.6%
Kwame Etwi run for no gain to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+42
97.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Damion Ratley for 42 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
97.8%
Kwame Etwi run for 4 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.0%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q4 13:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
99.3%
Taylor Bertolet 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:181% → 7%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Don JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.0%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (De'Vante Harris) to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.0%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+13
99.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Don Jackson for 13 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 6 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+6
98.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 6 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
98.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
98.8%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the TexAM 14Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+7
98.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Holding (7 Yards) to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
98.9%
Tyler Stewart sacked by A.J. Hilliard for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 9Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.8%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Don JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
93.3%
Don Jackson 9 Yd pass from Tyler Stewart (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:308% → 5%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
92.5%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-9
92.9%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 34Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 19
OPP 34
-5
93.9%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 24
OPP 39
0
94.6%
Alex Boy punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 29FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:1097% → 98%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
96.7%
Tra Carson run for 15 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
96.8%
Kyler Murray run for 11 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
97.2%
Kyler Murray sacked by Bryan Lane Jr for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+7
97.1%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Brice Dolezal for 7 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+25
97.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Christian Kirk for 25 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
97.4%
Brice Dolezal run for 4 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
97.6%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Jeremy TabuyoSimilar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
97.5%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
98.2%
Taylor Bertolet 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 30END OF GAME
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:312% → 2%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
98.0%
James Butler run for 27 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
97.8%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-3
97.6%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 46Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+15
98.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 15 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
97.7%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+12
97.6%
James Butler run for 12 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
97.6%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
97.6%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 8Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
97.7%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the TexAM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:33
Don Jackson 9 Yd pass from Tyler Stewart (Brent Zuzo Kick)
-5.5
TD · Q3 13:45
Josh Reynolds 10 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)
+3.3
TD · Q3 4:02
Jeremy Tabuyo 15 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com