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CONN

UConn 6 at Missouri 9

MIZ
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:37 · Michael Tarbutt 49 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior+26.4Home team on offense−5.6Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score differential−2.6Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:03: Maty Mauk 2 Yd Run (Andrew Baggett Kick) — MIZ win probability +11.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:25: Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 8 yds to the UConn 41 — CONN win probability +9.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30: Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the Misso 25 — MIZ win probability +3.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:53: Timeout CONNECTICUT, clock 00:53 — MIZ win probability +7.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:29: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 23 — MIZ win probability +17.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 10CONN made the numbers' call on 4 of 11
  1. Q1 13:10MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:03CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:09MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:44CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−<0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:52MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:58MIZ 4th & 3 at CONN 23, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:38CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 25, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:16CONN 4th & 13 at CONN 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:26CONN 4th & 8 at MIZ 23, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    19.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:26MIZ 4th & 5 at CONN 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:56CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:28MIZ 4th & 12 at CONN 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:37CONN 4th & 4 at MIZ 32, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%−1.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:03MIZ 4th & 2 at CONN 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−13.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:56CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:22MIZ 4th & 1 at CONN 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−4.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−14.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:35CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 9, down 3
    Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:34MIZ 4th & 12 at CONN 35, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−1.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    77.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−1.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:04CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:33MIZ 4th & 6 at CONN 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−4.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:39CONN 4th & 4 at MIZ 25, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 11.1 ptsWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%−11.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−23.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:14CONN Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:03MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:4195% → 95%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
95.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Nate Brown for 14 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
95.0%
Ish Witter run for 13 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.9%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
94.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 6 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
94.8%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
94.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 29 yds, downed at the UConn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:555% → 6%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
94.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-1
94.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+1
94.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 1 yd to the UConn 30Similar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
94.4%
Justin Wain punt for 40 yds , Aarion Penton returns for no gain to the Misso 30 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Misso 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3694% → 94%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
94.3%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+5
94.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 5 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+4
94.0%
Maty Mauk run for 4 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
93.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 51 yds, downed at the UConn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4SF
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:156% → 6%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
93.8%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UConn 4Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+4
93.7%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the UConn 8Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 4
OWN 8
0
93.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Alec BloomSimilar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
93.8%
Justin Wain punt blocked by Clarence Green for a SAFETY Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3094% → 94%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
93.6%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+17
93.6%
Maty Mauk pass intercepted Jhavon Williams return for 17 yds to the Misso 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:077% → 9%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
93.0%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 39Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+4
93.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 4 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+29
92.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 29 yds to the Misso 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
92.6%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the Misso 6Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.5%
Ron Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:0892% → 90%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
91.8%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+1
91.6%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+6
91.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 6 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
91.3%
Morgan Steward run for 4 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-4
91.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Nate Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+5
90.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ish Witter for 5 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
90.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5110% → 12%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
90.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+6
89.9%
Arkeel Newsome run for 6 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
89.6%
Ron Johnson run for 8 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
89.4%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
89.1%
Newsome, Arkeel rush for loss of 4 yards to the 50 yardline (Bailey, Sam), PENALTY UCONN holding 10 yards to the UCONN44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+10
89.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 10 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-2
88.3%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 48 Ron Johnson fumbled, forced by Kentrell Brothers, recovered by Misso Anthony SherrilsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:4390% → 88%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
89.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 11 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
89.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 7 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
89.7%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the UConn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
89.5%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+6
89.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 6 yds to the UConn 22Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-1
88.8%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 23Similar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
87.8%
Andrew Baggett 40 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10FUMBLE
10 plays · 13 yds · 4:3413% → 15%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
87.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 20 Bryant Shirreffs fumbled, recovered by UConn Bryant ShirreffsSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+9
87.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 9 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-4
86.7%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 25Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+13
87.4%
Justin Wain run for 13 yds to the UConn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
84.8%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Sam Bailey for a loss of 9 yards to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 19
OWN 29
0
85.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Max DeLorenzo for no gain to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+6
85.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 13
OWN 35
-5
85.0%
Justin Wain punt for 35 yds , Tavon Ross returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 25 Tavon Ross fumbled, recovered by UConn Brice McAllisterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4418% → 17%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
82.4%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
81.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
82.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Arkeel NewsomeSimilar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 8
OPP 23
0
83.0%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Alec BloomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:5484% → 82%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
84.0%
Maty Mauk run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 21 Maty Mauk fumbled, recovered by Misso Maty MaukSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+6
83.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 6 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+11
83.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 11 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
83.7%
Chase Abbington run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
50
+3
84.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 3 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
84.1%
Tyler Hunt run for 2 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
83.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
82.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2119% → 20%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
80.6%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Walter Brady for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 9Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+6
80.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 6 yds to the UConn 15Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
79.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Thomas LucasSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
80.4%
Justin Wain punt for 32 yds, downed at the UConn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:2280% → 77%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
80.3%
Maty Mauk run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 49Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
78.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
78.3%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
76.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
78.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:1422% → 25%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
78.1%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 21 Ron Johnson fumbled, recovered by UConn Ron JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+14
77.9%
Ron Johnson run for 14 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
76.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 8 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
75.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Thomas Lucas for 4 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
74.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 15 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
73.8%
Josh Marriner run for 3 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+3
72.4%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
72.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
74.7%
Michael Tarbutt 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
16 plays · 68 yds · 6:2776% → 83%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
76.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ray Wingo for 13 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
77.4%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
76.2%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
76.4%
Ish Witter run for 10 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
77.5%
Ish Witter run for 12 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
78.4%
Chase Abbington run for 2 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
78.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 4 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+5
76.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 5 yds to the UConn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-15
77.5%
Witter, Ish rush for 4 yards to the UCONN14, PENALTY MISSOURI illegal block 15 yards to the UCONN33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 25
OPP 33
+20
75.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ish Witter for 20 yds to the UConn 13Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
75.5%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the UConn 13Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+9
73.4%
Maty Mauk run for 9 yds to the UConn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
74.8%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the UConn 1Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
74.1%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 2Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
71.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Ish WitterSimilar
Q3 5:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.5%
Maty Mauk 2 Yd Run (Andrew Baggett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:0120% → 19%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 7 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
78.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 9 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
78.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tyraiq BealsSimilar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
78.4%
Johnson, Ron rush for 6 yards to the UCONN47, PENALTY UCONN holding 10 yards to the UCONN31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 20
OWN 31
-1
80.4%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 30Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 21
OWN 30
+13
81.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 13 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
81.1%
Justin Wain punt for 13 yds, downed at the Misso 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:1783% → 82%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+51
82.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 51 yds to the UConn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
84.0%
Maty Mauk run for 1 yd to the UConn 4Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
83.7%
Maty Mauk run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 5Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
82.3%
Maty Mauk run for 4 yds to the UConn 1Similar
Q4 14:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
81.8%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3820% → 19%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
79.7%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 1Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
79.8%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, False Start (Andreas Knappe) to the UConn 1Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+8
79.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 8 yds to the UConn 9Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
80.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Thomas Lucas CONNECTICUT Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Samra) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 3
OWN 9
+24
81.0%
Justin Wain punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Aarion Penton at the UConn 48 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the UConn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3884% → 78%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
83.6%
Morgan Steward run for 2 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-2
83.5%
Morgan Steward run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 33Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-2
81.5%
Maty Mauk sacked by Folorunso Fatukasi and Cole Ormsby for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 35Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 12
OPP 35
0
78.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1823% → 25%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
76.6%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 19Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
77.0%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 5 yds to the UConn 24Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
77.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Thomas Lucas for 9 yds to the UConn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
74.0%
Ron Johnson run for 3 yds to the UConn 36Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
73.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tommy MyersSimilar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+2
74.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
75.3%
Justin Wain punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Aarion Penton at the Misso 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:2478% → 81%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
78.1%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+6
77.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 6 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+15
77.7%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Brown, Nate, PENALTY UCONN pass interference (Melifonwu, Obi) 15 yards to the UCONN49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
81.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 6 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
81.2%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
80.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Eric Laurent for 4 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
81.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
80.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24INT
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:4629% → 23%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
71.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 8 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+17
67.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Brian Lemelle for 17 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
65.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Thomas Lucas for 11 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
64.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for no gain to the Misso 31Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
67.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marcell Frazier) to the Misso 26Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-5
65.5%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, False Start (Richard Levy) to the Misso 31Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
65.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tyraiq BealsSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+6
69.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+9
77.3%
Tim Boyle pass intercepted Anthony Sherrils return for 50 yds to the UConn 0 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Illegal Block (Alec Bloom) to the UConn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:2495% → 96%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
95.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 23Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-1
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:29
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 23
+17.8
TD · Q3 5:03
Maty Mauk 2 Yd Run (Andrew Baggett Kick)
+11.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:25
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 8 yds to the UConn 41
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com