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TTU

Texas Tech 35 at Arkansas 24

ARK
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:09 · Cole Hedlund 37 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Pregame prior+4.0Home team on offense−23.7Score differential−9.4Garbage-time factor−9.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:18: Hunter Henry 7 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick) — ARK win probability +7.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:52: Reginald Davis 72 Yd pass from Jakeem Grant (Michael Barden Kick) — TTU win probability +8.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:03: Drew Morgan 24 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick) — ARK win probability +13.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:31: Patrick Mahomes 2 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick) — TTU win probability +14.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:09: Justin Stockton 22 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick) — TTU win probability +15.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TTU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 13:24ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  2. Q3 2:00ARK 4th & 4 at TTU 5, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%−1.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−15.1
    average punt
  3. Q4 8:09ARK 4th & 17 at TTU 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−6.0
    average punt
  4. Q4 1:44TTU 4th & 4 at ARK 4, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:45TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:06ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:21TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:18ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:52TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:03ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:31TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:09TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2178% → 77%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.8%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
77.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 4 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
77.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
77.4%
Toby Baker punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:3023% → 25%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
77.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 21 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
77.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 14 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
77.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+3
76.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+19
76.7%
Justin Stockton run for 19 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
76.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 8 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+3
76.4%
Patrick Mahomes run for 3 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.2%
Reginald Davis 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Michael Barden Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2776% → 74%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
75.5%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+13
75.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to JoJo Robinson for 13 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
75.1%
Alex Collins run for 12 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
75.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
74.8%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
74.3%
Brandon Allen pass intercepted Tevin Madison return for no gain to the TexTc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4226% → 26%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
73.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-1
73.6%
Patrick Mahomes run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
73.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted D.J. Dean return for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:5774% → 76%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
73.8%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
73.9%
Brandon Allen run for 3 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+34
73.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 34 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
73.4%
Alex Collins run for 13 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
73.3%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the TexTc 3Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
72.8%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the TexTc 1Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.5%
Alex Collins 1 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4126% → 33%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
74.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 9 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
73.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 3 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
72.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 5 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+47
72.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 38 yds to the ARKANSAS 18 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
72.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for 2 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
71.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.4%
Patrick Mahomes 1 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 6:5769% → 75%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
68.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 5
OWN 24
+4
68.9%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+6
69.3%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
68.2%
Rawleigh Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+10
68.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams for 10 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
68.5%
Rawleigh Williams run for no gain to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
67.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 11 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
68.1%
Alex Collins run for 22 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
68.5%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+6
67.7%
Brandon Allen run for 6 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
67.4%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
68.0%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the TexTc 7Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.4%
Hunter Henry 7 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:0830% → 38%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
70.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 13 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
62.2%
Reginald Davis 72 Yd pass from Jakeem Grant (Michael Barden Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:3563% → 74%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
62.8%
Rawleigh Williams run for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
63.8%
Rawleigh Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
62.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 16 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
63.9%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-4
63.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the TexTc 45Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
63.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 6 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
62.9%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
64.1%
Rawleigh Williams run for 6 yds to the TexTc 29 ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 14
OPP 39
+5
61.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 5 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+8
63.0%
Rawleigh Williams run for 8 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
60.9%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
74.2%
Drew Morgan 24 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:3133% → 34%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
67.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 11 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
67.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 3 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
66.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted Jared Collins return for no gain to the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
69.9%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:2434% → 54%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
65.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 11 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
65.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Quinton White for 7 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
63.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Quinton WhiteSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+17
63.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
62.2%
Patrick Mahomes run for 21 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
60.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+2
61.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 2 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+16
62.2%
Patrick Mahomes run for 16 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
60.1%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
59.8%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 2Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.8%
Patrick Mahomes 2 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13FG
17 plays · 75 yds · 8:1450% → 50%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
50.0%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
50.1%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
49.0%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
49.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 16 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
51.5%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 7
50
+3
51.7%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
49.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 8 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
49.9%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+6
51.0%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
49.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+18
49.5%
Brandon Allen run for 7 yds to the TexTc 22 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
49.6%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 14Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+10
48.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams for 10 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-1
46.0%
Rawleigh Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 5Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
50.3%
Cole Hedlund 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:3656% → 81%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
44.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 16 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
42.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 9 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
39.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
38.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 5 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
38.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Quinton White for 5 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
37.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+19
40.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 19 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+4
35.9%
Patrick Mahomes run for 4 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
34.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 11 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
19.4%
Justin Stockton 22 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15MISSED FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:4122% → 16%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.1%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
22.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
20.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 11 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
21.9%
Alex Collins run for 11 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
22.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 12 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
19.9%
Alex Collins run for 26 yds to the TexTc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
21.5%
Rawleigh Williams run for 3 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
20.7%
Damon Mitchell run for 5 yds to the TexTc 5Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-15
19.3%
Allen, Brandon pass complete to Henry, Hunter for 5 yards to the TEXASTECH0, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference 15 yards to the TEXASTECH20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 17
OPP 20
0
17.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 17
OPP 20
+37
15.5%
Cole Hedlund 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16MISSED FG
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1187% → 97%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
12.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 16 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
11.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+27
10.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 27 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
8.9%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
8.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 11 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
5.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
5.2%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the Ark 18Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+9
4.2%
Patrick Mahomes run for 9 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
3.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 5 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
2.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 9Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
2.4%
Patrick Mahomes run for 1 yd to the Ark 8Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
2.5%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
2.6%
Michael Barden 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:233% → 3%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
2.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 9 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+12
3.0%
Alex Collins run for 12 yds to the Ark 41 Alex Collins fumbled, forced by Jah'Shawn Johnson, recovered by TexTcSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18END OF GAME
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:3098% → 98%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 44
-4
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:09
Justin Stockton 22 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)
-15.1
TD · Q3 10:31
Patrick Mahomes 2 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)
-14
TD · Q2 1:03
Drew Morgan 24 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com