2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:18: Hunter Henry 7 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick) — ARK win probability +7.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:52: Reginald Davis 72 Yd pass from Jakeem Grant (Michael Barden Kick) — TTU win probability +8.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:03: Drew Morgan 24 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick) — ARK win probability +13.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:31: Patrick Mahomes 2 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick) — TTU win probability +14.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:09: Justin Stockton 22 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick) — TTU win probability +15.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TTU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 13:24ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.2%average punt
- Q3 2:00ARK 4th & 4 at TTU 5, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snapGo for it44.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call43.3%−1.092% to makePunt29.2%−15.1average punt
- Q4 8:09ARK 4th & 17 at TTU 20, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snapGo for it13.9%−2.313% to convertField goalTheir call16.2%75% to makePunt10.2%−6.0average punt
- Q4 1:44TTU 4th & 4 at ARK 4, up 11Close callKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call94.4%−0.293% to makePunt92.4%−2.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 10:45TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.2%97% to makeGo for two25.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:06ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.6%97% to makeGo for two73.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:21TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.2%97% to makeGo for two31.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:18ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.5%97% to makeGo for two68.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:52TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.9%97% to makeGo for two37.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:03ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.3%97% to makeGo for two65.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:31TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.4%97% to makeGo for two48.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:09TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.3%97% to makeGo for two75.0%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARKDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2178% → 77%
Q1 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
77.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 4 yds to the Ark 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD8 plays · 77 yds · 2:3023% → 25%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
77.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 21 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
77.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 14 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+3
76.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.2%
Reginald Davis 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Michael Barden Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3INT7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2776% → 74%
TTUDrive 4INT3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4226% → 26%
ARKDrive 5TD7 plays · 60 yds · 3:5774% → 76%
Q1 5:41
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+34
73.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 34 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4126% → 33%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
74.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 9 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
73.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 3 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
72.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 5 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+47
72.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 38 yds to the ARKANSAS 18 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD15 plays · 81 yds · 6:5769% → 75%
TTUDrive 8TD3 plays · 85 yds · 0:0830% → 38%
ARKDrive 9TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:3563% → 74%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
62.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 16 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
63.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 6 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
64.1%
Rawleigh Williams run for 6 yds to the TexTc 29 ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 14
OPP 39
+5
61.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 5 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10INT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:3133% → 34%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
67.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 11 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
67.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 3 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
66.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted Jared Collins return for no gain to the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 7 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD12 plays · 77 yds · 4:2434% → 54%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
65.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 11 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
65.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Quinton White for 7 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+17
63.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
60.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+2
61.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 2 yds to the Ark 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13FG17 plays · 75 yds · 8:1450% → 50%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
49.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 16 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
49.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 8 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+18
49.5%
Brandon Allen run for 7 yds to the TexTc 22 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+10
48.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams for 10 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14TD11 plays · 83 yds · 3:3656% → 81%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
44.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 16 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
42.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 9 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
38.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 5 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
38.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Quinton White for 5 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
37.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+19
40.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 19 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
34.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 11 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15MISSED FG13 plays · 55 yds · 4:4122% → 16%
Q4 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
20.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 11 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
22.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 12 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-15
19.3%
Allen, Brandon pass complete to Henry, Hunter for 5 yards to the TEXASTECH0, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference 15 yards to the TEXASTECH20, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16MISSED FG16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1187% → 97%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
12.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 16 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+27
10.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 27 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
8.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 11 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FUMBLE2 plays · 21 yds · 0:233% → 3%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:09
Justin Stockton 22 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)
-15.1
TD · Q3 10:31
Patrick Mahomes 2 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)
-14
TD · Q2 1:03
Drew Morgan 24 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)
+13.2