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MISS

Ole Miss 43 at Alabama 37

ALA
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.2ALA 68.3%Adam Griffith 20 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q2 11:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:52 · Adam Griffith 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Home team on offense+1.2Pregame prior+14.7Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:53: Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 66 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +13.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:33: Jake Coker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +18.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:30: Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 8 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +22.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 11:45: Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 73 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MISS win probability +18.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:33: Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +23.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 7MISS made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:22MISS 4th & 8 at ALA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:56ALA 4th & 2 at MISS 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:56MISS 4th & 5 at ALA 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:41ALA 4th & 10 at MISS 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    69.4%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:10MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:52ALA 4th & 3 at MISS 3, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:51MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:30MISS 4th & 1 at ALA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−6.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:00ALA 4th & 9 at MISS 34, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:54MISS 4th & 10 at ALA 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−8.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:50ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:57MISS 4th & 6 at ALA 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−8.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:53MISS 4th & 25 at MISS 10, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−5.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:05ALA 4th & 10 at MISS 49, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:01MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 43, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:31MISS 4th & 1 at ALA 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−1.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:09ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.6%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 7:30MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:43MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:03ALA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:53MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:33ALA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:30ALA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:45MISS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    81.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:02MISS Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:36ALA Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.5%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:33ALA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2929% → 29%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
70.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Jaylen Walton, broken up by Jonathan AllenSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
70.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 2 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
70.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q1 14:22
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
70.8%
Gary Wunderlich 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:1871% → 70%
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.8%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+30
70.7%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to O.J. Howard for 30 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
70.8%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
70.7%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-1
70.6%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+1
70.4%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Robert Foster for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:5330% → 30%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
70.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 22 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
69.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Jaylen WaltonSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
69.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 5 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
69.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Markell Pack, broken up by Reggie RaglandSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
69.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 32 yds, downed at the Alab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
13 plays · 57 yds · 5:0870% → 68%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
69.9%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
69.7%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for no gain to the Alab 11Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+5
69.4%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to O.J. Howard for 5 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+5
69.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Terry Caldwell) to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
69.2%
Kenyan Drake run for 5 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+22
69.2%
Kenyan Drake run for 7 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Denzel Nkemdiche) to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
69.7%
Kenyan Drake run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+18
69.1%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 18 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
69.6%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
69.8%
Cooper Bateman pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-5
69.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Alphonse Taylor) to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+4
68.7%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Derrick Henry for 4 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
68.0%
JK Scott punt for 35 yds, downed at the Miss 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:1531% → 33%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
68.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+10
68.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 10 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
68.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon Treadwell, broken up by Reuben FosterSimilar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
68.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for no gain to the Miss 14Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+15
68.4%
Chad Kelly run for 15 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
67.7%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
67.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
67.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
66.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 35 yds, downed at the Alab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 5:1167% → 68%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
67.0%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+14
66.9%
Derrick Henry run for 14 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
67.8%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
67.1%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 4
50
+16
67.6%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Robert Foster for 16 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
68.4%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+15
68.4%
Bateman, Cooper pass incomplete to Ridley, Calvin, PENALTY OLEMISS personal foul (Bridges, Tony) 15 yards to the OLEMISS16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
68.4%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
68.3%
Cooper Bateman pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+11
67.6%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 11 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
68.2%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 3Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-8
68.1%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 11Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
67.1%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 8 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
68.3%
Adam Griffith 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3134% → 33%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
66.1%
Cody Core run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
66.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Markell PackSimilar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
66.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 9
OWN 34
-3
67.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 47 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4468% → 68%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
67.6%
Kenyan Drake run for 2 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+28
67.5%
Cooper Bateman pass intercepted Trae Elston return for 28 yds to the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:0237% → 47%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
63.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 2 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+18
63.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 18 yds to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
62.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 5 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.4%
Robert Nkemdiche run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:3548% → 56%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
52.0%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Engram, Evan (Fitzpatrick, Minkah), PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Fitzpatrick, Minkah) 14 yards to the ALABAMA4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
51.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Alab 4Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
52.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea Stringfellow, broken up by Dillon LeeSimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.1%
Chad Kelly run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:3345% → 57%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.2%
Kenyan Drake run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
44.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
44.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 11 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
44.8%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
44.0%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+11
44.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 11 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
44.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Robert Foster, broken up by Kendarius WebsterSimilar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
44.4%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
44.0%
Kenyan Drake run for 2 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
43.1%
ArDarius Stewart run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+15
41.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Derrick Henry for 15 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
44.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+15
42.8%
Jake Coker run for 15 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
43.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
56.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 9 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:3551% → 51%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
49.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-5
49.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Liggins) to the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:4851% → 66%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
48.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 8 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+4
47.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
46.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 7 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
33.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 66 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:4335% → 32%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
34.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 23 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
36.6%
Jake Coker run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 8
50
+15
35.6%
Jake Coker run for 15 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
36.0%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
35.3%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
33.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
32.4%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard Mullaney, broken up by Mike HiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:0273% → 77%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
27.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
27.1%
Chad Kelly run for 2 yds to the Miss 36 Chad Kelly fumbled, recovered by Miss Rod TaylorSimilar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+29
26.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 29 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
24.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+18
24.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jeremy Liggins for 18 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
23.5%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Alab 17Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
23.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
23.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
22.9%
Gary Wunderlich 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5424% → 23%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.8%
Jake Coker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
23.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Derrick Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
22.5%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard Mullaney, broken up by Mike HiltonSimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+5
22.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Zedrick Woods) to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
22.5%
JK Scott punt for 49 yds, downed at the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:3380% → 93%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
20.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 21Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+14
20.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for 14 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+34
19.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 34 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
17.3%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Treadwell, Laquon (Jones, Cyrus), PENALTY OLEMISS ineligible downfield on pass (Conyers, Robert) 5 yards to the ALABAMA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
17.6%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+14
17.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 14 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-5
16.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (Chad Kelly) to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
15.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+45
6.9%
Gary Wunderlich 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:109% → 29%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin Ridley, broken up by Kendarius WebsterSimilar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
9.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 9 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+7
9.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+31
9.3%
Derrick Henry run for 31 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
10.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Derrick HenrySimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
9.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 9 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+8
9.7%
Kenyan Drake run for 8 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
11.3%
Kenyan Drake run for 2 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.4%
Jake Coker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 1:3181% → 82%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
18.7%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-4
18.3%
Chad Kelly sacked by Da'Shawn Hand for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-8
18.2%
Chad Kelly sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 10Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
18.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Miss 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:1225% → 48%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
25.2%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+16
24.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Derrick Henry for 16 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
26.6%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+9
26.1%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
25.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 2 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
48.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 8 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:3267% → 85%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
33.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 9 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+73
15.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 73 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3620% → 19%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
19.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
19.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Derrick Henry for 5 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
19.0%
Jake Coker pass intercepted C.J. Johnson return for 4 yds to the Alab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:4887% → 97%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
12.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 7 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+24
3.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 24 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 3:176% → 17%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.9%
Kenyan Drake run for 7 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+19
6.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 19 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
6.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius Stewart, broken up by Tony BridgesSimilar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
6.2%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Kenyan DrakeSimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
5.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Kenyan DrakeSimilar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+11
5.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 11 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
6.2%
Jake Coker run for 5 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
6.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+6
6.4%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
6.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 3 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-4
6.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+24
5.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 24 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
6.0%
Jake Coker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
6.0%
Coker, Jake pass incomplete to Ridley, Calvin, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Nkemdiche, Denzel) 2 yards to the OLEMISS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q4 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.8%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25TD
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:4715% → 38%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
15.0%
Jake Coker sacked by Robert Nkemdiche for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+8
10.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 8 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+14
12.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 14 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
14.7%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+8
14.6%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
14.2%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Miss 2Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:2482% → 86%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
18.3%
Chad Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+22
16.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 22 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
13.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 1 yd to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
12.5%
Chad Kelly run for no gain to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
12.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon Treadwell, broken up by Minkah FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+49
13.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 49 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27INT
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:1821% → 23%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+26
21.3%
Jake Coker run for 26 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
23.4%
Jake Coker pass intercepted Tony Bridges return for no gain to the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:5489% → 96%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+28
10.9%
Chad Kelly run for 13 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Cyrus Jones) to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
8.1%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+5
6.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+5
4.8%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
3.9%
Jeremy Liggins run for no gain to the Alab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1610% → 9%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
10.0%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
9.5%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
9.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
9.1%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard Mullaney, broken up by Kendarius WebsterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:33
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+23.7
TD · Q4 12:30
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 8 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+22.7
TD · Q4 11:45
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 73 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-18.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com