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VAN

Vanderbilt 16 at Ole Miss 27

MISS
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:38 · Tommy Openshaw punt for 39 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 1 yd to the Miss 32 OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Miss 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Pregame prior+35.3Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 13:10: Tommy Openshaw 41 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +2.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:39: Johnny McCrary pass complete to Ralph Webb for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +11.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:25: Robert Nkemdiche run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +11.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:12: Tommy Openshaw 34 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +6.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:47: Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +7.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8VAN made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 12:09VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:42MISS 4th & 20 at MISS 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:25VAN 4th & 6 at MISS 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:09VAN 4th & 12 at MISS 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:26MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:03VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:26MISS 4th & 22 at MISS 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:38VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:20MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:19MISS 4th & 1 at VAN 1, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.6%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:47VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:52MISS 4th & 13 at VAN 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:56VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:10VAN 4th & 3 at MISS 23, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:45MISS 4th & 11 at VAN 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−3.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:16MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:44VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:12VAN 4th & 9 at MISS 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−8.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:28VAN 4th & 5 at MISS 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−10.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:04VAN 4th & 2 at MISS 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:13MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:39VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:25MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:47MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:3895% → 95%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
95.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+13
95.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 13 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
95.0%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+2
95.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 2 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+15
94.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
50
+1
94.9%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Oren Burks return for 1 yd to the Vandy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:015% → 5%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
94.8%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
94.6%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
94.6%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven Scheu, broken up by Mike HiltonSimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
94.6%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 54 yds , Carlos Davis returns for no gain to the Miss 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 1:1895% → 94%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
94.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 7 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+17
94.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 17 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
94.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 13 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
94.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
94.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Jaylen WaltonSimilar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+5
94.4%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Core, Cody, PENALTY VANDERBILT offside (Weatherly, Stephen) 5 yards to the VANDERBILT44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
94.4%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 5
OPP 44
-15
94.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 20
OWN 41
0
94.2%
Will Gleeson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4FG
19 plays · 73 yds · 7:106% → 8%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
94.2%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-1
94.1%
Johnny McCrary run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+11
94.1%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 11 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
93.8%
Dallas Rivers run for 2 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
93.7%
Johnny McCrary run for 3 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+7
93.7%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 7 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
93.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 8 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
93.3%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+7
93.2%
Dallas Rivers run for 7 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
93.1%
Dallas Rivers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+1
93.0%
Johnny McCrary run for 1 yd to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+16
92.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 16 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
92.6%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 2 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+6
92.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 6 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+6
92.4%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
92.2%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Miss 14Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
92.1%
Josh Crawford run for 3 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+1
92.1%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 1 yd to the Miss 10Similar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
91.8%
Tommy Openshaw 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:0292% → 93%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
91.7%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+23
91.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 23 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+26
91.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 26 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
92.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 20 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:518% → 8%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
91.9%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
91.6%
Johnny McCrary run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
91.7%
Johnny McCrary run for no gain to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
91.9%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3592% → 91%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
91.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 6 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+1
91.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
91.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Markell PackSimilar
Q2 14:26
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
91.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:199% → 9%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.4%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
91.5%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
91.5%
Johnny McCrary run for no gain to the Vandy 33Similar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
91.4%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 41 yds, downed at the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2991% → 90%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
91.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 11 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
91.1%
Chad Kelly run for no gain to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
91.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-12
90.6%
Chad Kelly sacked by Stephen Weatherly for a loss of 12 yards to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 22
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 51 yds , Ryan White returns for no gain to the Vandy 24 VANDERBILT Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Vandy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:429% → 10%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
90.6%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 7 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+6
90.3%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 6 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
90.3%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Kris Kentera, broken up by Tee ShepardSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
90.2%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
90.2%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Nathan MarcusSimilar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+1
90.3%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 39 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 1 yd to the Miss 32 OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Miss 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11FG
17 plays · 78 yds · 4:1190% → 92%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
90.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 11 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
90.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 3 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
89.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 5 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
90.0%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+3
89.5%
Will Gleeson run for 3 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.3%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
90.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 6 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+19
90.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 19 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+30
90.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 30 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
90.9%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 5Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
91.2%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Adeboyejo, Quincy, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (Ferguson, Taurean) 3 yards to the VANDERBILT2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
90.7%
Jeremy Liggins run for no gain to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (1 Yards) to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
90.7%
Akeem Judd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 3Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
90.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
90.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Vandy 1Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
91.6%
Gary Wunderlich 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:289% → 9%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
91.0%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
90.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+28
91.2%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the OLEMISS 26 VANDERBILT Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Jacob Schultz) to the Miss 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 1:4392% → 92%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
91.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+18
91.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 18 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+32
91.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 32 yds to the Vandy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
91.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 7 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
91.9%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Vandy 12Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 3
OPP 12
-10
91.6%
Walton, Jaylen rush for 9 yards to the VANDERBILT3, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Liggins, Jeremy) 10 yards to the VANDERBILT22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 13
OPP 22
0
91.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+39
91.9%
Gary Wunderlich 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:398% → 8%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.3%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 9 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
91.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Ralph Webb for 4 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
92.0%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
92.0%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
92.3%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
92.5%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4992% → 92%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
92.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy Adeboyejo, broken up by Arnold TarpleySimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-7
92.0%
Chad Kelly sacked by Adam Butler for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 17
OWN 20
+6
91.6%
Akeem Judd run for 6 yds to the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 1:309% → 11%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+32
90.7%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 17 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
89.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+9
89.7%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 9 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
89.2%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 8 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
89.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-1
90.2%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
88.8%
Tommy Openshaw 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 2:1590% → 90%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
89.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody Core, broken up by Torren McGasterSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+26
89.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 26 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
90.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+13
90.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 13 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
90.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+24
90.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 24 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
91.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-5
91.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Fahn Cooper) to the Vandy 13Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
91.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
90.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+29
89.6%
Gary Wunderlich 29 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nifae LealaoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:5111% → 26%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+43
88.9%
Ralph Webb run for 43 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
87.3%
Josh Crawford run for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+15
86.1%
McCrary, Johnny pass incomplete to Scott, Caleb, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Moore, Kailo) 15 yards to the OLEMISS19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VANDERBILT.Similar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
86.0%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 9 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+3
86.0%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
85.8%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Miss 6Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
85.5%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 7Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
74.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Ralph Webb for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0480% → 78%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
79.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
80.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-2
81.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
79.4%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
78.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2124% → 25%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
76.0%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
75.5%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
74.4%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
73.5%
Josh Crawford run for 1 yd to the Vandy 33Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
73.7%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Josh Crawford for 3 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
73.4%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Josh Crawford, broken up by C.J. HamptonSimilar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
74.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Cale Luke blocked by Cale LukeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:1581% → 92%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
81.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+1
81.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 1 yd to the Vandy 17Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+9
79.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 9 yds to the Vandy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
80.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Vandy 1 VANDERBILT Penalty, 12 Men on the Field ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.5%
Jeremy Liggins run for no gain to the Vandy 1 Jeremy Liggins fumbled, recovered by Miss OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.1%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Vandy 1Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
81.3%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Treadwell, Laquon, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (Herndon, Tre) 0 yards to the VANDERBILT1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q3 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Robert Nkemdiche run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 3:5812% → 21%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
87.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+17
87.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Darrius Sims for 17 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
86.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
87.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+11
87.7%
McCrary, Johnny pass incomplete to Scheu, Steven, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Hilton, Mike) 11 yards to the VANDERBILT45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VANDERBILT.Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
85.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
86.2%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 5
50
+14
86.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 14 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
86.0%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 7 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+13
84.5%
McCrary, Johnny pass incomplete to Marcus, Nathan, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference 13 yards to the OLEMISS16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VANDERBILT.Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
84.5%
Trent Sherfield run for 1 yd to the Miss 15Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
84.3%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Caleb Scott, broken up by Mike HiltonSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
85.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+34
79.4%
Tommy Openshaw 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23INT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:4482% → 81%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
82.1%
Chad Kelly sacked by Zach Cunningham for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-10
81.5%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete, PENALTY OLEMISS holding 10 yards to the OLEMISS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+18
81.2%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Jahmel McIntosh return for 18 yds to the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3226% → 23%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
74.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 9 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 1
OPP 10
0
74.3%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Miss 10Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 1
OPP 10
-4
75.7%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
77.3%
Tommy Openshaw 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:1880% → 95%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
80.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
80.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 15 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
81.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 9 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-5
83.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-1
84.2%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+9
82.5%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Treadwell, Laquon, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (McGaster, Torren) 9 yards to the OLEMISS49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
84.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 24 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
87.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+14
87.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 14 yds to the Vandy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
87.5%
Chad Kelly run for 11 yds to the Vandy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:416% → 5%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
94.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 9 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 1
OWN 27
0
93.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+4
94.3%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
94.6%
Josh Crawford run for 2 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+10
94.7%
Johnny McCrary run for 10 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
93.7%
Josh Crawford run for 11 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
93.3%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Josh Crawford for 8 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
93.3%
Josh Crawford run for no gain to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
93.7%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
95.5%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, broken up by Tony BridgesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27END OF GAME
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:5997% → 97%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
96.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
96.7%
Jaylen Walton run for 8 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
97.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 6 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+5
97.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-2
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:39
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Ralph Webb for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q3 1:25
Robert Nkemdiche run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+11
TD · Q4 6:47
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com