Try the model
MIZ

Missouri 13 at Kentucky 21

UK
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Kroger Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:33 · Corey Fatony punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ryan Timmons at the Kent 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Home team on offense−3.1Pregame prior+2.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:51: Patrick Towles 14 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick) — UK win probability +5.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:42: Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson — UK win probability +7.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:58: Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +18.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:55: Mikel Horton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 30 — UK win probability +5.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:20: Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +13.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:08MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:55UK 4th & 9 at UK 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:10MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:55UK 4th & 6 at MIZ 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−1.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:15MIZ 4th & 25 at UK 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:25UK 4th & 18 at UK 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−4.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:33MIZ 4th & 2 at UK 49, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:04MIZ 4th & 6 at UK 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−10.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:09MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:44UK 4th & 1 at UK 37, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:43MIZ 4th & 9 at UK 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−2.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:00MIZ 4th & 6 at UK 6, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.2%−2.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:49MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:51UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:58UK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:20UK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:3143% → 43%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
56.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 8 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
56.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+5
56.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
56.6%
Maty Mauk run for no gain to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
56.7%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+4
56.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 4 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
56.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ryan Timmons at the Kent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0057% → 57%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
56.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 7 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+4
57.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 4 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
57.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Patrick Towles for 1 yd to the Kent 30Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
57.0%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 30Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
56.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+1
56.6%
Landon Foster punt for 51 yds , Aarion Penton returns for 1 yd to the Misso 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:0143% → 49%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
56.9%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+17
56.9%
Maty Mauk run for 2 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
56.4%
Maty Mauk sacked by Denzil Ware for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+11
56.9%
Ish Witter run for 11 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+7
56.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
56.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
56.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 8 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+2
56.0%
Tyler Hunt run for 2 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
56.0%
Maty Mauk run for 11 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
55.6%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+2
55.5%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+7
55.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 7 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
55.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 17 Russell Hansbrough fumbled, recovered by Misso Russell HansbroughSimilar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+17
51.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:4353% → 59%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
52.9%
KENTUCKY penalty Holding (-4 yards), KENTUCKY penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards)Similar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 29
OWN 10
+11
52.5%
Stanley Williams run for 11 yds to the Kent 21 Stanley Williams fumbled, recovered by KentSimilar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 18
OWN 21
+28
51.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 28 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
53.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 24 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
53.9%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
53.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 2 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
53.1%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
53.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds to the Misso 10Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-4
53.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 14Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
58.9%
Patrick Towles 14 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:2744% → 44%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
56.4%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
56.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Ish WitterSimilar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+13
57.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ray Wingo for 13 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
56.0%
Tyler Hunt run for 4 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
55.6%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
55.3%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 41Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
56.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 55 yds, downed at the Kent 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 56 yds · 5:0657% → 58%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
57.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 4 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+4
57.3%
Ryan Timmons run for 4 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+28
56.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 28 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
59.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 5 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
59.8%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+9
59.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 9 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
60.3%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
60.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for no gain to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+2
59.5%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
58.4%
Landon Foster punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Aarion Penton at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:3145% → 45%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
55.0%
Drew Lock run for 11 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+28
54.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 28 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
52.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Keyon Dilosa for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+20
53.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 20 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
51.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-15
51.6%
Drew Lock sacked by Cory Johnson and TEAM for a loss of 15 yards to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 25
OPP 47
0
55.1%
Corey Fatony punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Timmons at the Kent 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8END OF HALF
8 plays · 27 yds · 4:0957% → 57%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
56.8%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the Kent 4Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+4
56.5%
Mikel Horton run for 4 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+6
55.0%
Patrick Towles run for 6 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
57.0%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+7
56.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 7 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+6
56.2%
Mikel Horton run for 6 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
57.5%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Kent 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
56.9%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Kent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1761% → 56%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
60.1%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 9
50
-9
58.9%
Patrick Towles sacked by Donavin Newsom for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 41Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
55.9%
Landon Foster punt for 38 yds, downed at the Misso 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:4546% → 47%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
54.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 21Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
54.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jason Reese for 11 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
53.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
53.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+9
55.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 9 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
51.7%
Chase Abbington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-10
52.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 21
OWN 32
+14
54.6%
Maty Mauk run for 14 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+5
52.3%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
52.9%
Corey Fatony punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ryan Timmons at the Kent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:3557% → 56%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
57.3%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 12Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 13
OWN 12
0
57.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 13
OWN 12
0
55.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:2749% → 54%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
51.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
50.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+28
51.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 28 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
48.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Kent 24Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
48.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+3
50.7%
Maty Mauk run for 3 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
46.1%
Andrew Baggett 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5749% → 73%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.6%
Patrick Towles run for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
50.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 10 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
51.3%
Patrick Towles sacked by Walter Brady for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+3
48.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 3 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+15
47.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
52.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
52.2%
Jojo Kemp run for 10 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
54.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 7 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+17
54.7%
Jojo Kemp run for 17 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
54.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Misso 24Similar
Q3 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 24
+24
73.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:3534% → 29%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
66.5%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+7
66.0%
Maty Mauk run for 7 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
66.2%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Marcus McWilson) to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
63.7%
Maty Mauk run for no gain to the Misso 41Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
68.3%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
69.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Ray WingoSimilar
Q3 0:09
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+9
71.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 40 yds , Ryan Timmons returns for 9 yds to the Kent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1672% → 72%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
72.2%
Jojo Kemp run for 7 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
73.6%
Jojo Kemp run for no gain to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
72.2%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+5
71.6%
Landon Foster punt for 50 yds , Aarion Penton returns for 5 yds to the Misso 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:5030% → 29%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
70.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Keyon Dilosa for 9 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+7
68.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 7 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
69.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+15
67.1%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
66.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Ray WingoSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
66.5%
Maty Mauk run for 1 yd to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
68.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Keyon DilosaSimilar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
71.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 37 yds, downed at the Kent 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 4:1472% → 94%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
72.2%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 6Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+35
71.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 35 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
75.4%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+6
74.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 6 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+25
75.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 25 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
81.4%
Mikel Horton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+1
83.1%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+24
80.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 24 yds to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 3:107% → 12%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
92.6%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
92.9%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+21
93.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jason Reese for 21 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
91.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Keyon Dilosa for 16 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
91.0%
Maty Mauk run for 13 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
89.7%
Ish Witter run for 10 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
90.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jason Reese for 8 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+3
90.8%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Kent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
90.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 8Similar
Q4 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.2%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.3%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Chase AbbingtonSimilar
Q4 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
91.8%
Maty Mauk run for 2 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
87.6%
Andrew Baggett 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19END OF GAME
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:5095% → 97%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
94.6%
Jojo Kemp run for 3 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+8
94.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 8 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
96.4%
Jojo Kemp run for 3 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
97.0%
Jojo Kemp run for 6 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
97.1%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 37Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
96.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the Kent 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:58
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+18.4
TD · Q4 6:20
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+13.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:42
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com