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MSST

Mississippi State 17 at Auburn 9

AUB
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGEnd of GameFG+3.5AUB 30.3%Daniel Carlson 30 Yd Field GoalAWAY 14 - HOME 3 · Q3 9:41
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:41 · Daniel Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Home team on offense−11.0Score differential−5.7Garbage-time factor−4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Pregame prior+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:18: Gabe Myles 32 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +3.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:02: De'Runnya Wilson 17 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +7.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:26: Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24 — MSST win probability +4.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:41: Daniel Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal — AUB win probability +3.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:07: Daniel Carlson 51 Yd Field Goal — AUB win probability +4.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 3:01AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:31MSST 4th & 8 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:38AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:45AUB 4th & 9 at MSST 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−4.8
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:40MSST 4th & 3 at AUB 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−2.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:41AUB 4th & 7 at MSST 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:17MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−3.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:06AUB 4th & 7 at MSST 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−8.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:11MSST 4th & 2 at AUB 27, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%−1.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:26AUB 4th & 15 at MSST 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:18MSST 4th & 2 at AUB 44, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−3.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:39AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:40MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:15AUB 4th & 29 at AUB 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:24MSST 4th & 5 at AUB 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:07AUB 4th & 3 at MSST 34, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%−1.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:18MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:02MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1INT
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:1153% → 55%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.2%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
53.3%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
53.3%
Sean White pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 7 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
53.5%
Sean White sacked by Richie Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+18
53.5%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 18 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
53.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+4
54.1%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
54.1%
Sean White pass complete to Melvin Ray for 11 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
54.4%
Stanton Truitt run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+22
54.2%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 22 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
54.7%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+6
54.9%
Sean White run for 6 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+19
54.5%
Sean White pass intercepted Will Redmond return for 19 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:0246% → 51%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
53.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 12 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
53.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 8 yds to the MisSt 41 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 12
OWN 31
+2
53.8%
Gabe Myles run for 2 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
53.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 11 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
53.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 8 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+9
52.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 9 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
53.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
52.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 5 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
52.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+32
49.3%
Gabe Myles 32 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4350% → 49%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
50.2%
Marcus Davis fumbled, run for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 17 Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+11
50.0%
Peyton Barber run for 11 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
49.5%
Sean White pass complete to Jason Smith for 6 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+29
48.9%
Kevin Phillips punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the AUBURN 32 AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2452% → 53%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
48.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
47.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
46.9%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 8
50
+5
46.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 5 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 3
OPP 45
-5
47.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 8
50
0
47.3%
Logan Cooke punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:2248% → 46%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
47.7%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
47.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
47.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
47.5%
AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (-15 Yards) to the Aub 15Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+5
47.0%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+4
46.6%
Sean White pass complete to Melvin Ray for 4 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+10
45.7%
Sean White pass complete to Chandler Cox for 10 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+4
45.8%
Kevin Phillips punt for 49 yds , Fred Ross returns for 4 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:2054% → 65%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
46.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 6 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
45.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+4
45.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 4 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
45.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
45.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 5 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-10
44.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+19
46.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 19 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
43.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 18 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
42.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 21 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
42.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gus WalleySimilar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-1
42.2%
Gabe Myles run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 17Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+17
34.7%
De'Runnya Wilson 17 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7MISSED FG
19 plays · 67 yds · 7:0535% → 33%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
35.0%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 4 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-5
34.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+11
34.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 11 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
34.1%
Peyton Barber run for 6 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+6
34.6%
Peyton Barber run for 6 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
34.6%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+10
34.6%
Stanton Truitt run for 10 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
34.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+10
34.0%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 10 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
34.2%
Roc Thomas run for 12 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
33.7%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
33.0%
Peyton Barber run for 7 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.9%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.8%
Peyton Barber run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-8
31.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 9 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Aub Peyton BarberSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
32.9%
Daniel Carlson 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
28.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9FUMBLE
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:0572% → 74%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
27.8%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
27.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+17
27.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 17 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
25.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
25.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+9
25.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 9 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 3
OPP 40
-4
25.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for a loss of 4 yards Gus Walley fumbled, recovered by Aub Jonathan JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:5929% → 30%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
28.9%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+14
27.4%
Peyton Barber run for 14 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+31
29.2%
Sean White run for 31 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
29.8%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
29.1%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
27.9%
Sean White run for 1 yd to the MisSt 8Similar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 2
OPP 8
-5
26.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
30.3%
Daniel Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:1371% → 70%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.2%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
28.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for no gain to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
28.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
29.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 23Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+4
29.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 4 yds to the Aub 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 4:4930% → 30%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
29.8%
Roc Thomas run for 9 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+1
31.0%
Sean White run for 1 yd to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
30.6%
Peyton Barber run for 9 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
31.2%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
30.9%
Peyton Barber run for 18 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
32.3%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+1
31.3%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+13
29.9%
Sean White run for 13 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+3
28.8%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
30.1%
Peyton Barber run for no gain to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
29.9%
Sean White run for 3 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
27.8%
Sean White pass incomplete to Stanton TruittSimilar
Q3 3:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
30.0%
Daniel Carlson 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:4473% → 77%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
27.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 18 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
25.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
24.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 2 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+9
24.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
22.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Ashton ShumpertSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
22.8%
Dak Prescott run for 8 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
23.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
23.3%
Westin Graves 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:3123% → 19%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
22.8%
Sean White run for 11 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
22.7%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+9
22.4%
Sean White pass complete to Melvin Ray for 9 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
23.6%
Sean White pass complete to Roc Thomas for 13 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
24.3%
Roc Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 13
OPP 47
-2
22.8%
Sean White pass complete to Roc Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 15
OPP 49
0
20.7%
Sean White pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
19.0%
Kevin Phillips punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:5881% → 86%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
19.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 7 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+6
18.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 6 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
18.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+14
18.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 14 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
15.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
15.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+5
14.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 5 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
14.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:2615% → 13%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
14.8%
Sean White pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 17 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
15.6%
Sean White pass incomplete to Peyton BarberSimilar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
14.8%
Sean White pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
13.9%
Sean White pass incomplete to Jason SmithSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
13.1%
Kevin Phillips punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5486% → 87%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
13.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
13.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
13.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
13.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:1014% → 9%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
14.4%
Sean White pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 6 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+8
14.6%
Peyton Barber run for 8 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-11
14.2%
Sean White sacked by A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 11 yards to the Aub 19 Sean White fumbled, recovered by AubSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 21
OWN 19
+1
12.5%
Sean White pass complete to Roc Thomas for 1 yd to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 20
OWN 20
-9
10.0%
Sean White sacked by Beniquez Brown and Brandon Bryant for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 29
OWN 11
0
9.3%
Kevin Phillips punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3591% → 94%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
9.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 5 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+6
8.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
8.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 5 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
7.9%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
6.7%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
6.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 1:596% → 8%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
5.7%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 8 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+6
5.9%
Peyton Barber run for 6 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
5.6%
Sean White pass complete to Peyton Barber for 1 yd to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+18
5.5%
Sean White pass complete to Peyton Barber for 18 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
5.4%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 6 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
5.6%
Sean White pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+10
5.3%
Peyton Barber run for 10 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
5.7%
Sean White pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-12
5.5%
Sean White sacked by Richie Brown for a loss of 12 yards to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 22
OWN 47
+19
3.6%
Sean White pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 19 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+51
8.3%
Daniel Carlson 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:0597% → 97%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-1
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 46
-3
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:02
De'Runnya Wilson 17 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick)
-7.5
FG · Q4 1:07
Daniel Carlson 51 Yd Field Goal
+4.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:26
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com