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UNC

North Carolina 13 at South Carolina 17

SC
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2015 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:56 · Perry Orth run for no gain to the NCaro 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense+11.4Pregame prior+0.4Garbage-time factor+2.7Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: Connor Mitch pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 9 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +5.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:11: Elliott Fry 25 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +4.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:05: Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 14:05 — SC win probability +8.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 12:45: Shon Carson run for 48 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +25.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:40: Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 03:40 — SC win probability +8.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:37SC 4th & 11 at SC 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:05SC 4th & 9 at SC 21, tied
    Close callWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:32SC 4th & 10 at SC 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:23UNC 4th & 5 at SC 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:11SC 4th & 5 at UNC 7, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:44UNC 4th & 11 at SC 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:50SC 4th & 17 at UNC 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−2.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:31UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−4.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:25SC 4th & 5 at SC 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:57SC 4th & 17 at SC 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−3.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:56UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−2.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:46UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:56SC 4th & 1 at UNC 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−4.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−19.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:29UNC 4th & 8 at SC 8, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−16.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:21UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56SC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:45SC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:2353% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
52.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 20Similar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
52.8%
Brandon Wilds run for 4 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
52.9%
Brandon Wilds run for no gain to the SCaro 24Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
52.9%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Carlton HeardSimilar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+39
52.9%
Sean Kelly punt for 39 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2INT
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:2647% → 47%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
52.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 15 yds to the SOCAROLINA 49 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaiah Johnson) to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
52.8%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the SCaro 34Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
52.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 39Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+15
52.9%
Romar Morris run for 15 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
52.7%
Elijah Hood run for 9 yds to the SCaro 15Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+5
52.7%
Romar Morris run for 5 yds to the SCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
52.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 3 yds to the SCaro 7Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
52.7%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the SCaro 6Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
52.8%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted, touchback. Skai Moore return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:2853% → 54%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
53.3%
Brandon Wilds run for 6 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
53.5%
Brandon Wilds run for 1 yd to the SCaro 27Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-6
53.4%
Pharoh Cooper pass complete to Carlton Heard for a loss of 6 yards to the SCaro 21Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+17
53.1%
Sean Kelly run for 17 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
53.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Hayden Hurst) to the SCaro 33Similar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+6
53.6%
Connor Mitch run for 6 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+9
53.9%
David Williams run for 9 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
54.4%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
54.4%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to David Williams, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
53.8%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
53.5%
Sean Kelly punt for 43 yds, downed at the NCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 0:5946% → 51%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+40
53.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 40 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
52.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 23 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
52.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
52.4%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+5
52.8%
Williams, Marquise pass incomplete to Switzer, Ryan, PENALTY SOCAROLINA substitution infraction 5 yards to the SOCAROLINA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+21
49.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 21 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1650% → 56%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.0%
Pharoh Cooper run for 7 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
50.4%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
50.0%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to David WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
49.9%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Jerell Adams for 16 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
51.0%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+20
50.9%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 20 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
50.9%
Pharoh Cooper run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
50.8%
Brandon Wilds run for 8 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
50.7%
Brandon Wilds run for 1 yd to the NCaro 13Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
50.6%
Connor Mitch run for 4 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
56.1%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 9 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:2747% → 49%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
53.5%
Elijah Hood run for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
52.6%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
53.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 28 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
51.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 40Similar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+3
52.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 3 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+7
52.1%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
51.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
51.3%
Nick Weiler 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:0752% → 56%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.1%
Brandon Wilds run for 5 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+27
52.5%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 27 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
54.4%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 4 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
54.5%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Deebo Samuel, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+15
53.2%
Connor Mitch run for 15 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
54.0%
Connor Mitch run for 9 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+3
54.1%
Connor Mitch run for 3 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
54.0%
Brandon Wilds run for 2 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
53.1%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
51.8%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
55.9%
Elliott Fry 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 5:2048% → 54%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
51.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 16 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
49.9%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
49.5%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+10
49.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 10 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
48.7%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+20
48.7%
T.J. Logan run for 20 yds to the SCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
47.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Caleb Peterson) to the SCaro 25Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+9
47.9%
Marquise Williams run for 9 yds to the SCaro 16Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
47.1%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the SCaro 15Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-6
47.9%
Marquise Williams sacked by Kelsey Griffin and Darius English for a loss of 6 yards to the SCaro 21Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+38
46.1%
Nick Weiler 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 1:3048% → 48%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.7%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to David WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.4%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
46.1%
Connor Mitch run for 9 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
48.7%
Perry Orth pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 15 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
51.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 9 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
47.7%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
46.8%
Connor Mitch run for 1 yd to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
47.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+43
47.5%
Elliott Fry 57 yd FG RETURNED , Ryan Switzer return for 43 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3553% → 53%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
46.7%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
46.7%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 2:1055% → 48%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
55.2%
Brandon Wilds run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
55.1%
Brandon Wilds run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-5
53.2%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Kyle Markway) to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 12
OPP 36
-5
50.5%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 17
OPP 41
0
49.7%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
48.3%
Sean Kelly punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:1052% → 51%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
48.2%
Ty'Son Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
47.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
49.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 7 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
47.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
48.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ty'Son Williams for no gain to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-5
49.0%
Williams, Marquise pass complete to Hollins, Mack for 14 yards to the UNC45, PENALTY UNC illegal formation 5 yards to the UNC26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 15
OWN 26
0
48.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
49.1%
Corbin Daly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5750% → 49%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.7%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Deebo SamuelSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
49.6%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 5 yds Brandon Wilds fumbled, forced by M.J. Stewart, recovered by SCaro Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
51.1%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Marquavius LewisSimilar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
48.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14INT
5 plays · 59 yds · 0:5154% → 58%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
46.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 6 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
45.4%
Elijah Hood run for 9 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+44
45.3%
Elijah Hood run for 44 yds to the SCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
41.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
41.6%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Jordan Diggs return for 2 yds to the SCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 5:2349% → 47%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
48.8%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 21Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
48.5%
Pharoh Cooper pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+17
47.0%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Terry Googer for 17 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
50.6%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
52.7%
Pharoh Cooper run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
50
-1
52.5%
Connor Mitch run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 49Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+22
50.0%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Terry Googer for 22 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
55.1%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
52.9%
Connor Mitch sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
50.5%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
49.3%
Connor Mitch run for no gain to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 12
OPP 46
-5
46.6%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 49Similar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
46.5%
Sean Kelly punt for 48 yds, downed at the NCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5354% → 53%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+21
45.7%
Elijah Hood run for 21 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
44.0%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-5
42.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+6
44.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-5
43.5%
Marquise Williams sacked by Kelsey Griffin for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
46.7%
Corbin Daly punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:5548% → 75%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
48.4%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
51.3%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Jerell Adams for 2 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+9
50.1%
David Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
75.2%
Shon Carson run for 48 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5430% → 28%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.9%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
69.0%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
70.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
72.5%
Corbin Daly punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:4476% → 75%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
75.7%
Shon Carson run for 14 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
77.4%
Shon Carson run for 11 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
77.6%
Shon Carson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
77.7%
Perry Orth run for 7 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 1
OPP 12
0
76.4%
David Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 12Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
74.9%
Perry Orth run for no gain to the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20INT
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:2228% → 19%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
71.6%
Marquise Williams sacked by Phillip Dukes for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+13
72.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 13 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
71.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 16 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
69.2%
T.J. Logan run for 8 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-5
66.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
67.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 6 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+29
67.8%
Elijah Hood run for 29 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
63.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
64.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+14
67.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 14 yds to the SCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
66.2%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the SCaro 9Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
68.6%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the SCaro 3Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
71.6%
Marquise Williams sacked by Dante Sawyer for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 8Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.1%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted, touchback. Skai Moore return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21END OF GAME
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:2288% → 96%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
88.3%
Pharoh Cooper run for 3 yds to the SCaro 23Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
88.2%
Brandon Wilds run for 10 yds to the SCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
89.8%
Brandon Wilds run for 4 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
91.2%
Brandon Wilds run for 5 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
92.2%
Brandon Wilds run for 2 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 43
-1
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:45
Shon Carson run for 48 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
+25.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:40
Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 03:40
+8.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:05
Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 14:05
+8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com