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ASU

Arizona State 17 at Texas A&M 38

TA&M
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:32 · Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to De'Chavon Hayes
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 206Home team on offense+26.9Pregame prior+0.4Score differential+8.9Garbage-time factor+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:56: M. Bercovici pass,to K. Kohl for 4 yds for a TD, (Z. Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +10.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:37: Mike Bercovici run for 19 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — TA&M win probability +11.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 8:32: Kyle Allen run for 12 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK) — TA&M win probability +13.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:16: Zane Gonzalez 23 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +6.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:45: Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 66 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK) — TA&M win probability +6.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 14
  1. Q1 14:06TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:14ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:00TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:09ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:31TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:23ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:51ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:46ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 46, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:46ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 46, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:55TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:55TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:19ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  13. Q2 5:02TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  14. Q2 2:19ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 14:05ASU 4th & 12 at ASU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−2.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:27TA&M 4th & 15 at TA&M 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 9:33ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−2.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:19TA&M 4th & 2 at ASU 2, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−14.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:50TA&M 4th & 1 at ASU 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−4.0
    79% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−16.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:26ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:16ASU 4th & 5 at TA&M 5, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.8%−3.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−5.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:32ASU 4th & 28 at ASU 15, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:12ASU 4th & 10 at TA&M 32, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:20TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:56ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:32TA&M Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:45TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:38TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4961% → 61%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Kyle Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.5%
Kyle Allen run for 4 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
60.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+11
60.5%
Drew Kaser punt for 46 yds , De'Chavon Hayes returns for 11 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4140% → 39%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
60.5%
De'Chavon Hayes run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-2
60.4%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
60.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 6 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
60.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
60.6%
Matt Haack punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0561% → 60%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
60.6%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
60.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 4 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
60.6%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 11:00
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
60.4%
Drew Kaser punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4640% → 40%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
60.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to De'Chavon Hayes for 1 yd to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
60.4%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
60.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 5 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
60.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to De'Chavon Hayes for 3 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
60.2%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+1
59.9%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
60.3%
Matt Haack punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:2460% → 60%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
60.4%
Kyle Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 24Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
60.3%
Tra Carson run for 10 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
60.4%
Tra Carson run for 7 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
60.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 2 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
61.0%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-6
60.5%
Kyle Allen sacked by Viliami Moeakiola for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
59.6%
Drew Kaser punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5740% → 40%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
60.2%
Demario Richard run for 17 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
59.8%
De'Chavon Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+5
60.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 5 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-5
60.2%
Mike Bercovici run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 35 Mike Bercovici fumbled, forced by Myles Garrett, recovered by ArzSt D.J. FosterSimilar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
60.0%
Matt Haack punt for 59 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 2:5560% → 66%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
59.7%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 9Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+36
59.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 36 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
61.3%
James White run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+4
61.7%
James White run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
61.7%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+28
61.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 28 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
62.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 3 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
62.1%
Kyle Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
66.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 9 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1935% → 30%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
64.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 8 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
64.1%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
64.3%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
64.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+5
65.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 5 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+79
70.5%
Matt Haack punt for 39 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 79 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 1:5429% → 27%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
70.8%
De'Chavon Hayes run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
70.6%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
70.7%
De'Chavon Hayes run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
70.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
73.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
73.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 9 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
73.1%
Matt Haack punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
73.1%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3875% → 74%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
74.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
74.5%
Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
74.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 6 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
74.6%
Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+18
74.4%
Kyle Allen sacked by Christian Sam for a loss of 7 yards to the TexAM 17; Kyle Allen fumbled, ArzSt JD Alexander, return for 18 yds to the TexAM 4Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+18
74.4%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.1%
M. Bercovici pass,to K. Kohl for 4 yds for a TD, (Z. Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 1:4867% → 67%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
67.2%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
67.2%
Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+1
67.3%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 17Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+1
67.3%
Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-1
66.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 16Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-1
66.8%
Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+4
66.9%
Drew Kaser punt for 51 yds , De'Chavon Hayes returns for 4 yds to the ArzSt 20 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+4
66.9%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2132% → 30%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
67.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 4 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
67.8%
Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
67.1%
De'Chavon Hayes run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
67.1%
Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-5
67.8%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Daeshon Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 37 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+3
70.1%
Matt Haack punt for 44 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 3 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1369% → 58%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
69.2%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
69.1%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 26Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-5
68.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Avery Gennesy) to the TexAM 21Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
68.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
58.0%
Drew Kaser punt for 54 yds, fair catch by De'Chavon Hayes at the ArzSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:3643% → 43%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to De'Chavon Hayes for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
56.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
57.6%
Bercovici, Mike pass incomplete to Hayes, De'Chavon, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Watts, Armani) 10 yards to the ARIZONAST38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST.Similar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
55.3%
De'Chavon Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+3
56.9%
De'Chavon Hayes run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+9
58.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 9 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
57.1%
Matt Haack punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16END OF HALF
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:1061% → 63%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
61.3%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+1
60.7%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 19Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+7
59.8%
Kyler Murray run for 7 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
61.2%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
61.3%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+10
60.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Christian Kirk for 10 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
62.1%
Kyler Murray run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 33 Kyler Murray fumbled, recovered by TexAM Kyler MurraySimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+17
60.6%
Kyler Murray run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
50
0
63.8%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
50
+15
63.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Speedy Noil for 15 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5044% → 41%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
56.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Evan Goodman) to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+3
56.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to De'Chavon Hayes for 3 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
56.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 12
OWN 14
0
57.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to De'Chavon HayesSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 12
OWN 14
0
58.6%
Matt Haack punt for 56 yds, downed at the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
60.1%
Kyle Allen pass intercepted Kweishi Brown return for 7 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-8
51.5%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Daeshon Hall for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 38 Mike Bercovici fumbled, forced by Daeshon Hall, recovered by TexAM Shaan Washington , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:1361% → 57%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
61.3%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
60.9%
Tra Carson run for 9 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
61.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 1 yd to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-9
62.0%
Kyle Allen sacked by Viliami Latu for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
62.3%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
62.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 15
OWN 43
+6
57.4%
Drew Kaser punt for 50 yds , De'Chavon Hayes returns for 6 yds to the ArzSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:4844% → 43%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
56.3%
Demario Richard run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
55.7%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+9
55.1%
Mike Bercovici run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
53.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
54.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to De'Chavon Hayes for no gain to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
55.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to De'Chavon HayesSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
57.4%
Matt Haack punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22INT
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:5759% → 63%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
59.1%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-1
59.0%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 23Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+21
57.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 21 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
62.1%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 41Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+23
59.9%
Kyler Murray run for 23 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
63.2%
Kyler Murray pass intercepted Jordan Simone return for 2 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:3644% → 42%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
56.0%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-7
56.3%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Hardreck Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 6 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Mike Bercovici) to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 16
OWN 6
+3
57.9%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 4 Demario Richard fumbled, forced by Donovan Wilson, recovered by TexAM Noel EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1164% → 61%
Q3 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.4%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
64.4%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
62.9%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
60.7%
Taylor Bertolet 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3845% → 41%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
55.4%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Dunning) to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
52.1%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+21
51.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 21 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
49.1%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-3
48.6%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+11
50.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 11 yds to the TexAM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
48.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
59.3%
Mike Bercovici run for 19 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:3566% → 71%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
65.6%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
65.9%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+26
65.2%
Kyler Murray run for 26 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
69.8%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
69.4%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
68.4%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 9
OPP 42
+15
65.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Coltin Gerhart) to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
71.0%
Kyler Murray run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+3
71.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 3 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+4
73.0%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-2
71.1%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:1433% → 31%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
67.0%
Demario Richard run for 18 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
65.1%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-1
66.4%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Daeshon Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+3
68.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to De'Chavon Hayes for 3 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
69.3%
Matt Haack punt for 45 yds, downed at the TexAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 28TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 2:4870% → 90%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
70.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 16 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
70.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 5 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
73.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 4 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
73.3%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
73.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Damion Ratley for 10 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
75.2%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
74.8%
Tra Carson run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
76.4%
Kyle Allen run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Armand Perry) to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
90.0%
Kyle Allen run for 12 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 29FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 4:0411% → 19%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
89.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
87.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
87.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 4 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
88.4%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
88.4%
Mike Bercovici run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
88.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Frederick GammageSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
88.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 8 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+4
89.1%
Mike Bercovici run for 4 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+33
89.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 33 yds to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
88.1%
Mike Bercovici run for 3 yds to the TexAM 3Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
88.1%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 5Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
81.3%
Zane Gonzalez 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 30TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2591% → 97%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 9 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+66
97.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 66 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-5
97.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 31DOWNS
9 plays · -3 yds · 0:595% → 3%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
95.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+15
95.1%
Bercovici, Mike pass incomplete to Jefferson, Ellis, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Harris, De'Vante) 15 yards to the ARIZONAST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST.Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
94.8%
Mike Bercovici run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-6
94.9%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Daeshon Hall for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 22 Mike Bercovici fumbled, forced by Daeshon Hall, recovered by ArzSt William McGehee , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 21
OWN 22
-7
97.4%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Donovan Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 28
OWN 15
0
97.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to De'Chavon HayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 32TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:4299% → 100%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
99.0%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
Tra Carson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 33DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 6 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+9
99.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 9 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
99.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 17 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
99.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Evan Goodman) to the TexAM 37Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+13
99.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 13 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
99.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Ellis JeffersonSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 2
OPP 24
-8
99.4%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Donovan Wilson and TEAM for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 32 Mike Bercovici fumbled, forced by Donovan Wilson, recovered by ArzSt Mike Bercovici , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
99.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Ellis JeffersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 34END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:32
Kyle Allen run for 12 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q3 2:37
Mike Bercovici run for 19 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 9:56
M. Bercovici pass,to K. Kohl for 4 yds for a TD, (Z. Gonzalez KICK)
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com