Try the model
MSST

Mississippi State 34 at Southern Miss 16

USM
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:55 · Matthew Moseley punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 179Pregame prior−3.8Home team on offense−35.8Score differential−21.7Garbage-time factor−14.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:20: Nick Mullens pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 19 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +3.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:15: Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +6.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:36: Westin Graves 38 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +3.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:02: Westin Graves 37 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +4.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:55: Dak Prescott run for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +6.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 11 of 13MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 2 at MSST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19USM 4th & 10 at USM 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:39USM 4th & 13 at MSST 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:14USM 4th & 17 at USM 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:39USM 4th & 8 at MSST 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:57USM 4th & 13 at USM 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:18MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:07USM 4th & 2 at MSST 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.0%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:07USM 4th & 1 at MSST 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−7.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:00MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−4.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:36MSST 4th & 4 at USM 21, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:37USM 4th & 5 at MSST 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:02MSST 4th & 5 at USM 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−5.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 2 at MSST 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−5.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:01USM 4th & 3 at MSST 10, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.5%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−6.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:34USM 4th & 10 at USM 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:55USM 4th & 6 at MSST 46, down 18
    Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:26MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:20USM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:57MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:15MSST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:55MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1DOWNS
15 plays · 44 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
17.1%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+2
17.1%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+5
17.1%
MULLENS, Nick pass complete to THOMAS, Michael for 6 yards to the USM32 (Zach Jackson), PENALTY MS offside 5 yards to the USM31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+2
17.1%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
17.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 28
0
17.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+9
17.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 9 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+12
17.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 12 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
17.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
50
+9
17.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 9 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
17.1%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+5
17.1%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
17.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ Thompson, broken up by Ryan BrownSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
17.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 67 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
19.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 2 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
19.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+53
19.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 44 yds to the SOUMISS 19 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (9 Yards) to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
18.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 9 yds Ashton Shumpert fumbled, forced by D'Nerius Antoine, recovered by SoMis Devonta FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
19.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 15Similar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
19.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Chris JonesSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
19.9%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 15Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+5
19.7%
MULLENS, Nick pass complete to THOMAS, Michael for 5 yards to the USM20 (T.Cleveland), PENALTY MS offside 5 yards to the USM20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
19.7%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
19.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 44 yds , Fred Ross returns for no gain to the MisSt 11 Fred Ross fumbled, recovered by SoMis Curtis MikellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3922% → 22%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
21.6%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+1
21.6%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the MisSt 4Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-10
21.4%
Nick Mullens sacked by Ryan Brown and A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+31
22.4%
Stephen Brauchle 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:0621% → 26%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
20.7%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
21.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
21.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 9 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+18
21.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ricky Parks for 18 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
21.8%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
21.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 11 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
21.8%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
25.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 19 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
25.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Curtis Mikell for 1 yd to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
25.2%
Justice Hayes run for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-8
24.6%
Nick Mullens sacked by A.J. Jefferson and Ryan Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
23.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:3174% → 73%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+35
25.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 35 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
24.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-7
24.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
26.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
26.9%
Devon Bell punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
26.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ricky Parks for 14 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
26.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 3 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+17
26.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
50
0
27.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 10
50
+2
27.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 2 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 14:39
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
27.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 14:39
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
26.0%
Tyler Sarrazin punt blocked by Beniquez Brown blocked by Beniquez BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:2874% → 78%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
26.0%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
26.2%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+12
26.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Justin Johnson for 12 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
26.0%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
22.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Justin Johnson for 5 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-8
24.4%
Nick Mullens sacked by A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 18
OWN 11
+6
24.2%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 12
OWN 17
-5
23.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 12Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+4
23.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 4 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
23.3%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 43 yds, downed at the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0477% → 76%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
23.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
23.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+4
23.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
23.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 79 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
24.1%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+18
24.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 18 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
25.8%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-15
26.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+12
24.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 12 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+6
24.5%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+2
25.1%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+44
26.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 44 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
27.2%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
27.2%
Dylan Bradley run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.3%
Dylan Bradley run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.4%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:0175% → 73%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
25.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 5 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+5
25.8%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
25.3%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
25.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 11
OWN 10
-5
26.1%
Dak Prescott sacked by Ja'Boree Poole for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 5Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 16
OWN 5
0
27.2%
Devon Bell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Casey Martin at the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
26.9%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Will Redmond return for 24 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
22.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gus Walley, broken up by D'Nerius AntoineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 2:4573% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
27.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+15
27.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Sherrod Ruff) to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
26.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+49
25.9%
Dak Prescott run for 49 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
24.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
24.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 8 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+2
25.0%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
24.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 2 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
24.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
17.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
18.5%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Richie Brown return for 3 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2283% → 87%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
17.1%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
17.1%
Dak Prescott run for 13 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
16.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Brandon HollowaySimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
17.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 6 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
17.1%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
13.2%
Westin Graves 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:5914% → 18%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+44
14.2%
Ito Smith run for 44 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
16.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Tolando Cleveland) to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
16.3%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
16.3%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+2
15.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 2 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
17.8%
Stephen Brauchle 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 4:3583% → 89%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-9
16.7%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the MisSt 29 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 19Similar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 19
OWN 19
+9
17.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 9 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+14
17.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 14 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
15.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
16.1%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+18
16.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 18 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
15.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
15.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+12
15.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 12 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
15.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
15.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
15.4%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
10.6%
Westin Graves 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 6:0112% → 14%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
11.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-5
12.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Andrew Peterson) to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+8
11.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 8 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+8
12.3%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
12.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jordan Mitchell, broken up by Deontay EvansSimilar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+31
12.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 31 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
14.0%
Jalen Richard run for 8 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-1
14.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 23Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+1
13.8%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+5
12.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 5 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
13.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Brandon BryantSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
13.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 3 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+4
13.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 4 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
16.1%
Stephen Brauchle 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
14.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
12.8%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
13.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+13
13.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Kivon Coman for 13 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
12.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
12.5%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
12.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q4 10:34
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
10.9%
Matthew Moseley punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 18Similar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
11.4%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+17
11.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Justice Hayes for 17 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
11.9%
Justice Hayes run for 3 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+17
12.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 17 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
13.1%
Justice Hayes run for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
12.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
12.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 1:4090% → 98%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
9.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 9 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+7
9.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
9.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 17 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
8.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+42
8.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 42 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.1%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
3.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 2 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
3.1%
Justice Hayes run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+9
3.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
50
0
3.2%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
50
+7
3.2%
Justice Hayes run for 7 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-3
3.5%
Nick Mullens run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 46 Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by SoMis Nick MullensSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
3.2%
Matthew Moseley punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:0098% → 99%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+20
1.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 20 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
1.6%
Malik Dear run for no gain to the MisSt 32 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+21
1.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 21 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
1.5%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
1.5%
Dontavian Lee run for 6 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+15
1.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:15
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q4 5:55
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-6.7
FG · Q3 4:02
Westin Graves 37 yd FG GOOD
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com