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UTM

UT Martin 3 at Ole Miss 76

MISS
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:21 · Jackson Redditt punt for 43 yds, downed at the Miss 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense+22.4Score differential+15.7Pregame prior+18.3Blowout margin+7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6Garbage-time factor+3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:06: Jaylen Walton 60 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — MISS win probability +0.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 6:42: Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +3.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 5:28: Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 56 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +4.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q1 1:06: Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 15 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +3.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:15: Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 57 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTM made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 13:28MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15UTM 4th & 10 at UTM 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:33UTM 4th & 3 at UTM 35, down 6
    Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:36UTM 4th & 13 at UTM 22, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:11UTM 4th & 7 at UTM 27, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:07MISS 4th & 5 at UTM 33, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:15UTM 4th & 8 at UTM 27, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:21UTM 4th & 6 at UTM 40, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:25MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 23, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:52UTM 4th & 2 at MISS 6, down 34
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:32UTM 4th & 1 at MISS 43, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:39UTM 4th & 11 at MISS 43, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:52UTM 4th & 10 at UTM 25, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:26UTM 4th & 6 at MISS 12, down 55
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:27MISS 4th & 3 at UTM 12, up 52
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:14UTM 4th & 5 at UTM 25, down 59
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:52UTM 4th & 19 at UTM 33, down 66
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 11:06MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:42MISS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:28MISS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:06MISS Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:35MISS Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:15MISS Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:09MISS Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:56MISS Touchdown, up 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:27MISS Touchdown, up 58 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:34MISS Touchdown, up 65 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:44MISS Touchdown, up 72 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1977% → 77%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+27
77.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 27 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-21
77.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 31
OWN 21
+23
76.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 23 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
76.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
76.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:0523% → 23%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
76.8%
Trent Garland run for 3 yds to the TnMar 11Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+5
76.5%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Ben Axline for 5 yds to the TnMar 16Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-8
76.5%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-8 Yards) to the TnMar 8Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
76.6%
Jarod Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 10
OWN 8
+51
76.6%
Jackson Redditt punt for 51 yds , Carlos Davis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
1 play · 60 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
77.5%
Jaylen Walton 60 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1523% → 23%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
77.2%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Trent Garland for 9 yds to the TnMar 25Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+3
77.0%
Trent Garland run for 3 yds to the TnMar 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
77.2%
Trent Garland run for a loss of 1 yard to the TnMar 27Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+6
77.3%
Jarod Neal run for 6 yds to the TnMar 33Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+2
77.3%
Jarod Neal run for 2 yds to the TnMar 35Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+58
77.3%
Jackson Redditt punt for 49 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 58 yds to the TnMar 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:4578% → 81%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
77.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
77.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 10 yds to the TnMar 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
77.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+12
77.8%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 12 yds to the TnMar 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5920% → 20%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Rod WrightSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
79.7%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Jaimiee Bowe for a loss of 3 yards to the TnMar 22Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
79.9%
Jarod Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
80.0%
Jackson Redditt punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
1 play · 56 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
84.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 56 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0016% → 15%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
84.0%
Trent Garland run for 10 yds to the TnMar 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
84.1%
Preston Baker run for 5 yds to the TnMar 29Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
84.3%
Preston Baker run for 3 yds to the TnMar 32Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
84.8%
Trent Garland run for no gain to the TnMar 32Similar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 2
OWN 32
-5
85.2%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TnMar 27Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+11
85.5%
Jackson Redditt punt for 37 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 11 yds to the Miss 47. TENN MARTIN Penalty, Personal Foul (Julian Thompson-Clay) to the TnMar 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:5586% → 90%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
85.9%
Akeem Judd run for a loss of 2 yards to the TnMar 40Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+7
86.3%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Markell Pack for 7 yds to the TnMar 33Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
86.6%
Ryan Buchanan pass incomplete to Taz ZettergrenSimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+5
86.3%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Taz Zettergren for 5 yds to the TnMar 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
86.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 12 yds to the TnMar 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
87.0%
Ryan Buchanan pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
87.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the TnMar 15Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
90.4%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 15 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:438% → 7%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.1%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 2 yds to the TnMar 27Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
92.3%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Taylor HiggasonSimilar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
92.5%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Jaimiee BoweSimilar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+1
93.1%
Jackson Redditt punt for 41 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 1 yd to the Miss 28 OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:3292% → 93%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
91.8%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 12 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.9%
DeVante Kincade pass incomplete to Jaylen WaltonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
91.9%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 9 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
91.8%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
92.6%
DeVante Kincade run for 4 yds to the TnMar 47Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+8
92.8%
Akeem Judd run for 8 yds to the TnMar 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
92.9%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the TnMar 38Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+7
93.2%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 7 yds to the TnMar 31Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+31
93.3%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Robert Nkemdiche for 31 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:524% → 3%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.1%
Najee Ray run for 3 yds to the TnMar 28Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
96.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, Encroachment (5 Yards) to the TnMar 33Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
95.7%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TnMar 28Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
96.4%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Ladevin Fair for 8 yds to the TnMar 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
96.3%
Ladevin Fair run for 2 yds to the TnMar 38Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
96.7%
Najee Ray run for 2 yds to the TnMar 40Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Rod WrightSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
97.0%
Jackson Redditt punt for 43 yds, downed at the Miss 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4593% → 91%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
92.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 5 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+1
92.7%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
92.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Hunter ThurleySimilar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+8
91.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 44 yds , William Tanner returns for 8 yds to the Miss 31 OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:233% → 3%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
97.2%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 4 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
97.0%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
96.7%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 3 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.1%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Ben AxlineSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+18
97.2%
Trent Garland run for 18 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
96.1%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+1
96.3%
Trent Garland run for 1 yd to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 14
OPP 18
+2
98.3%
Trent Garland run for 2 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+10
98.5%
Jarod Neal run for 10 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
96.7%
Jackson Redditt 23 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Robert NkemdicheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3598% → 99%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
97.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 14 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
97.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 9 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+57
98.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 57 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 16END OF HALF
12 plays · 53 yds · 2:571% → 1%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.8%
Preston Baker run for 4 yds to the TnMar 29Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
98.8%
Preston Baker run for 5 yds to the TnMar 34Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+18
98.7%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 18 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
98.9%
Preston Baker run for 5 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+5
98.8%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Rod Wright for 5 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
98.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Ben Axline for 6 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+9
98.5%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Ben Axline for 9 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
98.8%
Jarod Neal sacked by A.J. Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 13
OPP 26
0
98.9%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to William TannerSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+4
99.1%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Kyle Kerrick for 4 yds to the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:051% → 1%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
98.7%
Taylor Higgason run for 23 yds to the TnMar 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
98.7%
Jaimiee Bowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the TnMar 47Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+9
98.8%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 9 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
98.9%
Ladevin Fair run for 1 yd to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+1
98.9%
Jarod Neal run for 1 yd to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
99.1%
Ladevin Fair run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+1
99.5%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Ladevin Fair for 1 yd to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Jaimiee BoweSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Jackson Redditt punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:0299% → 100%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+3
99.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 3 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
99.5%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Jordan Landry return for no gain to the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 19INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+93
99.6%
Trae Elston 93 Yd Interception Return (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.7%
William Tanner run for a loss of 8 yards to the TnMar 17Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+4
99.7%
Najee Ray run for 4 yds to the TnMar 21 Najee Ray fumbled, recovered by TnMar Najee RaySimilar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+4
99.7%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Brett Thompson for 4 yds to the TnMar 25Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.8%
Jackson Redditt punt for 40 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 12 yds to the Miss 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
99.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 15 yds to the TnMar 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 15 yds to the TnMar 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the TnMar 20Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
99.7%
Chad Kelly run for 20 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 22FG
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+64
99.8%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Najee Ray for 64 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Jarod Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
99.8%
Najee Ray run for 3 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+1
99.8%
Jarod Neal run for 1 yd to the Miss 12Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
99.8%
Jackson Redditt 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:10100% → 100%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.8%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
99.8%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.8%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for 9 yds to the TnMar 46Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+11
99.9%
DeVante Kincade run for 11 yds to the TnMar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for 9 yds to the TnMar 26Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+7
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for 7 yds to the TnMar 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the TnMar 18Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+3
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 3 yds to the TnMar 15Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+3
99.9%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Collins Moore for 3 yds to the TnMar 12Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 12 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
100.0%
Troy Cook pass complete to William Tanner for 5 yds to the TnMar 25Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Brett ThompsonSimilar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to William TannerSimilar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Jackson Redditt punt for 57 yds, downed at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 7 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 5 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 70 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:260% → 0%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
100.0%
Troy Cook pass complete to Rod Wright for 17 yds to the TnMar 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
100.0%
Preston Baker run for 6 yds to the TnMar 48Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
100.0%
Preston Baker run for 3 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-18
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the TnMar 33Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 19
OWN 33
+46
100.0%
Jackson Redditt punt for 46 yds , Carlos Davis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+38
100.0%
D.K. Buford run for 38 yds to the TnMar 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
D.K. Buford run for 2 yds to the TnMar 40Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+8
100.0%
D.K. Buford run for 8 yds to the TnMar 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
100.0%
Martin Johnson run for 3 yds to the TnMar 29Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+9
100.0%
DeVante Kincade run for 9 yds to the TnMar 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
100.0%
D.K. Buford run for 20 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
100.0%
Troy Cook pass complete to Tyler Eddings for 13 yds to the TnMar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
100.0%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 1 yd to the TnMar 38Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
100.0%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 3 yds to the TnMar 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
100.0%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 5 yds to the TnMar 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 5:28
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 56 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q1 6:42
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q1 1:06
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 15 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com