Try the model
UL

Louisiana 33 at Kentucky 40

UK
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Kroger Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+3.9UK 96.7%Austin MacGinnis 24 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 27 · Q3 9:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:54 · Austin MacGinnis 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+18.7Home team on offense+23.1Score differential+17.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:43: Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 37 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +3.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:33: Brooks Haack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +3.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:16: Austin MacGinnis 44 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +2.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:54: Austin MacGinnis 24 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +3.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:47: Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis PAT MISSED) — UK win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:32UL 4th & 7 at UL 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:41UK 4th & 16 at UK 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:08UL 4th & 15 at UK 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:22UL 4th & 2 at UK 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−0.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:43UL 4th & 5 at UK 24, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:33UK 4th & 3 at UK 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:53UL 4th & 23 at UL 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:16UK 4th & 1 at UL 26, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%−0.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UL 4th & 2 at UL 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:32UK 4th & 7 at UK 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:54UK 4th & 7 at UL 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:04UL 4th & 14 at UK 14, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:09UK 4th & 11 at UL 29, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:35UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:58UL 4th & 5 at UL 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:37UK 4th & 1 at UL 49, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.2%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:32UL 4th & 4 at UL 28, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:14UL 4th & 2 at UL 42, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:44UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:17UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:43UK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:33UL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:47UK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
88.6%
Stanley Williams run for 75 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.6%
Brooks Haack pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
88.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
88.6%
Brooks Haack pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+16
88.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 51 yds , Ryan Timmons returns for 16 yds to the Kent 45 KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Kent 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
88.5%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-8
88.5%
Patrick Towles sacked by Zachary DeGrange for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 20Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 16
OWN 20
0
88.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
88.4%
Landon Foster punt for 52 yds, downed at the LaLaf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
88.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+13
88.2%
Brooks Haack run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
88.1%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 8 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+3
88.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
88.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
88.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
88.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
88.1%
Brooks Haack pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
88.1%
[SHOT], PENALTY UL false start 5 yards to the UK37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 15
OPP 37
0
88.2%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 15
OPP 37
0
88.2%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Al Riles, broken up by A.J. StampsSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 15
OPP 37
0
88.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 36 yds, downed at the Kent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5TD
8 plays · 99 yds · 2:3488% → 90%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+10
87.8%
Mikel Horton run for 10 yds to the Kent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
87.8%
[SHOT], Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, PENALTY UL pass interference (McCollum, Troy) 15 yards to the UK26, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
87.9%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
87.8%
Mikel Horton run for 3 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+36
87.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 36 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.1%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
88.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+35
89.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 35 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6FUMBLE
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:5011% → 11%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+12
88.8%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 12 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
88.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
88.8%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 8 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
88.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
88.8%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gary Haynes for 7 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
88.6%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+4
89.0%
Jalen Nixon run for 4 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
88.9%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 12 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
88.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-3
88.5%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+18
88.9%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 18 yds Jamal Robinson fumbled, forced by J.D. Harmon, recovered by Kent Cody QuinnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 1:1989% → 93%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+29
89.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 29 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+28
89.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 28 yds to the KENTUCKY 38 for a 1ST down UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
89.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 1 yd to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
90.0%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+37
93.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 37 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:107% → 11%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
92.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
92.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
92.7%
Torrey Pierce run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
92.7%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 6 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+15
92.6%
[SHOT], Haack, Brooks pass incomplete to Scott, Devin, PENALTY UK pass interference 15 yards to the UK40, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
92.4%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gary Haynes for 11 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
92.1%
Torrey Pierce run for 1 yd to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+4
92.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 4 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
92.4%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+13
92.6%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gary Haynes for 13 yds to the Kent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
92.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the Kent 7Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
92.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the Kent 4Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
88.7%
Brooks Haack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
89.8%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 22Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+10
89.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 10 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
89.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
89.4%
Landon Foster punt for 43 yds, downed at the LaLaf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0610% → 10%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
89.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
89.4%
Brooks Haack sacked by Josh Forrest for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-12
90.0%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gary Haynes for a loss of 12 yards to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 23
OWN 23
0
90.2%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Torrey PierceSimilar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 23
OWN 23
0
90.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 50 yds, downed at the Kent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:4891% → 94%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
90.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 11 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
90.9%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
90.8%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+26
90.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 26 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
91.0%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
91.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+6
90.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jojo Kemp for 6 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+44
94.4%
Austin MacGinnis 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.5%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 9 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
92.8%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 4 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
94.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 8 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
90.5%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
92.8%
Brooks Haack pass intercepted J.D. Harmon return for no gain to the Kent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
94.9%
Patrick Towles sacked by Dominique Tovell for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 16Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+4
95.0%
Mikel Horton run for 4 yds to the Kent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.0%
Torrey Pierce run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
92.1%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Jamal Robinson, broken up by Josh ForrestSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
92.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gary Haynes for 7 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
92.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan Timmons at the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.2%
Stanley Williams run for 11 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
92.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 3 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
92.5%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
92.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff Badet, broken up by Tre'maine LightfootSimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
91.6%
Landon Foster punt for 38 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for no gain to the LaLaf 21 Elijah McGuire fumbled, recovered by Kent Kelly MasonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:2794% → 97%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
93.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+15
92.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 15 yds to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
93.0%
Mikel Horton run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, broken up by Troy McCollumSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake Bone, broken up by Troy McCollumSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
96.7%
Austin MacGinnis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:504% → 6%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.4%
[SHOT], Haack, Brooks pass incomplete to Robinson, Jamal, PENALTY UK pass interference (Chris Westry) 14 yards to the UL39, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
96.1%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 5 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+5
95.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+43
96.0%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 43 yds to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
95.4%
Torrey Pierce run for 1 yd to the Kent 7Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
95.4%
Brooks Haack run for 6 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
95.6%
[SHOT], PENALTY UL false start 5 yards to the UK6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
95.7%
Brooks Haack sacked by Khalid Henderson for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 14Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
93.6%
Stevie Artigue 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:0995% → 99%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
95.2%
Patrick Towles sacked by Dominique Tovell for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+32
94.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 32 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
95.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jojo Kemp for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+38
95.4%
Stanley Williams run for 38 yds to the LaLaf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:142% → 2%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
97.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
97.7%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 6 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+4
97.7%
Jalen Nixon run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
97.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+56
98.2%
Torrey Pierce run for 56 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20MISSED FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete, broken up by Blain WinstonSimilar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-3
99.3%
Patrick Towles run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+2
99.2%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 29 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:09
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
99.2%
Austin MacGinnis 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:302% → 1%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
98.5%
Torrey Pierce run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
98.5%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
98.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
98.5%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 8 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+2
98.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+19
98.5%
Jalen Nixon run for 4 yds to the KENTUCKY 46 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
98.3%
Torrey Pierce run for 5 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+26
98.6%
Torrey Pierce run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jalen Nixon pass to Elijah McGuire for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
99.5%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted for a 1ST down Tracy Walker return for 1 yd to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST down UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:431% → 1%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
98.8%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gary Haynes for 2 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+23
98.8%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 23 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
98.8%
Jalen Nixon run for 2 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
98.8%
Torrey Pierce run for 7 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
98.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
98.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
98.6%
Torrey Pierce run for 2 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+23
99.0%
Jalen Nixon run for 23 yds for a TD, (E. McGuire Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by Zachary DeGrangeSimilar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Landon Foster punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-3
99.3%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.3%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gary Haynes for 5 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+33
99.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Timmons at the KENTUCKY 37 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, IS (-5 Yards) to the Kent 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
99.7%
Ryan Timmons run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan Timmons, broken up by T.J. WorthySimilar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+12
99.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charles Walker for 12 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the LaLaf 47 Patrick Towles fumbled, recovered by Kent Patrick Towles for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.7%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+20
99.7%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST down UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the LaLaf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.7%
Jojo Kemp run for no gain to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+10
99.7%
[SHOT], Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, PENALTY UL holding 10 yards to the UL14, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Mikel Horton run for 12 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27INT
11 plays · 20 yds · 0:361% → 0%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.5%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gary Haynes for 5 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gary Haynes, broken up by Josh ForrestSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+1
99.5%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 1 yd to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+6
99.7%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 6 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
99.6%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 8 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Nick Byrne, broken up by Josh ForrestSimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gary Haynes, broken up by Farrington HugueninSimilar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Brooks Haack pass intercepted Josh Forrest return for no gain to the Kent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 9:54
Austin MacGinnis 24 yd FG GOOD
+3.9
TD · Q2 8:33
Brooks Haack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
-3.4
TD · Q2 14:43
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 37 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com