What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:20 · Joshua Appleby punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
FUMBLE · Q2 6:54: TEAM run for no gain TEAM fumbled, recovered by Aub Justin Garrett , return for 82 yds, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +5.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
TD · Q3 11:21: Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 33 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +5.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
TD · Q3 1:21: Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +9.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
TD · Q4 6:21: Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +7.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
TD · Q4 2:59: Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +10.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
Q1 7:18LOU4th & 19 at AUB 19, down 7
Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
Go for it
22.6%−0.3
10% to convert
Field goalTheir call
23.0%
77% to make
Punt
22.2%−0.8
average punt
Q1 5:38AUB4th & 1 at AUB 29, up 7
Close callPunted · 76.6% before the snap
Go for it
77.0%
71% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
76.5%−0.5
average punt
Q1 3:20LOU4th & 18 at LOU 24, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
Go for it
22.0%−0.7
12% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
22.7%
average punt
Q2 13:00LOU4th & 1 at AUB 44, down 7
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.9% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
23.9%
70% to convert
Field goal
22.2%−1.7
27% to make
Punt
22.7%−1.2
average punt
Q2 11:00LOU4th & 20 at AUB 49, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
Go for it
21.7%−1.4
10% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
23.1%
average punt
Q2 4:42LOU4th & 7 at LOU 39, down 14
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
Go for it
15.9%−0.3
37% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
16.2%
average punt
Q2 0:34AUB4th & 16 at LOU 39, up 14
Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
Go for it
85.1%−0.8
16% to convert
Field goalTheir call
85.8%
36% to make
Punt
85.1%−0.7
average punt
Q3 7:07LOU4th & 5 at AUB 25, down 24
Close callKicked a field goal · 3.7% before the snap
Go for it
3.7%
41% to convert
Field goalTheir call
3.7%−<0.1
66% to make
Punt
1.5%−2.2
average punt
Q4 7:12LOU4th & 4 at AUB 14, down 21
Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
1.0%−0.4
46% to convert
Field goal
1.4%
84% to make
Punt
0.1%−1.3
average punt
Q4 5:16AUB4th & 13 at AUB 26, up 14
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
Go for it
95.2%−1.0
19% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
96.2%
average punt
Q4 3:30LOU4th & 7 at AUB 19, down 14
Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
3.8%−0.6
35% to convert
Field goal
4.4%
77% to make
Punt
2.4%−2.0
average punt
Q4 0:00AUB4th & 18 at AUB 46, up 7
Numbers favored punt by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
88.7%−2.0
13% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
Punt
90.7%
average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
Q1 12:49AUBTouchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
76.6%
97% to make
Go for two
76.6%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q3 11:21AUBTouchdown, up 23 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
95.8%
97% to make
Go for two
95.8%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q3 1:21LOUTouchdown, down 15 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
6.9%
97% to make
Go for two
6.8%−0.1
45% to convert
Q4 10:04AUBTouchdown, up 20 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
99.1%
97% to make
Go for two
99.1%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q4 6:21LOUTouchdown, down 15 before the try
Close callKicked · made
KickTheir call
3.7%−<0.1
97% to make
Go for two
3.7%
45% to convert
Q4 2:59LOUTouchdown, down 8 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
6.5%
97% to make
Go for two
6.0%−0.5
45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Jeremy Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
76.4%
Jeremy Johnson pass intercepted Josh Harvey-Clemons return for no gain to the Lvile 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FUMBLE TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:2824% → 20%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
76.3%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
76.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 12 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
75.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 6 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+22
75.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Micky Crum for 7 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar