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WIS

Wisconsin 17 at Alabama 35

ALA
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:12 · JK Scott punt for 38 yds , Alex Erickson returns for 12 yds to the Wisc 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Home team on offense+31.2Pregame prior+0.6Score differential+15.9Garbage-time factor+16.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:06: Alex Erickson 6 Yd pass from Joel Stave (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +5.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:39: Robert Foster 17 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +6.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:42: Derrick Henry 56 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +7.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:17: Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +5.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:05: Rafael Gaglianone 43 Yd Field Goal — WIS win probability +3.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:11ALA 4th & 18 at ALA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:55WIS 4th & 6 at ALA 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:54ALA 4th & 1 at WIS 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:31WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:30ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:15WIS 4th & 3 at ALA 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:09ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−1.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:59WIS 4th & 18 at WIS 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−3.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:47WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:51ALA 4th & 16 at WIS 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:27WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:05WIS 4th & 11 at ALA 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:10ALA 4th & 7 at WIS 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:02WIS 4th & 19 at WIS 13, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:12ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:54ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:06WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:39ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:42ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:17ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:02ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:42WIS Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:3477% → 76%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
76.6%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
76.5%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
76.4%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
76.3%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+1
76.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Robert Foster for 1 yd to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-10
76.0%
Jake Coker sacked by Joe Schobert for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 24Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 18
OWN 24
+3
75.6%
JK Scott punt for 43 yds , Alex Erickson returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0724% → 25%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
75.6%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
75.2%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+8
75.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 8 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
74.8%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
74.5%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
74.4%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
74.8%
Drew Meyer punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 1:4675% → 77%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+22
74.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Robert Foster for 22 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+22
74.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 22 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
75.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Derrick Henry for 1 yd to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-2
75.3%
Kenyan Drake run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 47 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dakota Ball) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+10
74.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Robert Foster for 10 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+37
77.2%
Derrick Henry 37 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5923% → 23%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
77.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 15 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
76.8%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
76.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Corey Clement for 6 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
76.4%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+1
77.0%
Drew Meyer punt for 45 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 1 yd to the Alab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:5577% → 76%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
77.2%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+7
77.2%
Kenyan Drake run for 7 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
77.1%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-14
77.1%
Jake Coker sacked by Joe Schobert for a loss of 14 yards to the Alab 14Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 23
OWN 14
+15
76.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (Conor Sheehy) to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
77.1%
Kenyan Drake run for 3 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
77.2%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
76.8%
Jake Coker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+31
76.3%
JK Scott punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALABAMA 22 ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cole Mazza) to the Wisc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:5524% → 31%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
76.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 3 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
76.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Corey Clement for 13 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
75.5%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
75.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+12
75.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 12 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
74.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 20 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
74.5%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Alab 6Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
74.4%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
69.2%
Alex Erickson 6 Yd pass from Joel Stave (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:2572% → 80%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
71.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Sojourn Shelton) to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 5
OWN 17
-1
71.7%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+8
71.6%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
71.6%
Derrick Henry run for 14 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
72.3%
Coker, Jake pass complete to Stewart, ArDarius for 20 yards to the WISCONSIN42, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Stewart, ArDarius) 15 yards to the ALABAMA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+3
71.3%
Kenyan Drake run for 3 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 22
OWN 26
+33
70.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 33 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
73.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 13 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
73.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 11 yds to the Wisc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
79.6%
Robert Foster 17 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 5:1523% → 22%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
77.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 6 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
76.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+3
77.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 3 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
77.2%
Joel Stave sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 17
OWN 22
+22
77.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 22 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
76.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Wisc 46 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 18
OWN 36
+5
77.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+6
77.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 6 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+4
76.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 4 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
77.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5879% → 78%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
78.8%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
78.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 4 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+2
78.2%
Kenyan Drake run for 2 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
77.6%
JK Scott punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10DOWNS
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:0523% → 25%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
76.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 23 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+34
75.1%
Rafael Gaglianone 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:4623% → 21%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
77.5%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 17Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
77.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Dare OgunbowaleSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+15
78.7%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to McEvoy, Tanner (Humphrey, Marlon), PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Humphrey, Marlon) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
77.0%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-8
77.0%
Joel Stave sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 16
OWN 26
-2
78.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 24Similar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 18
OWN 24
0
79.2%
Drew Meyer punt for 32 yds, downed at the Alab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:0980% → 88%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
80.2%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius Stewart, broken up by D'Cota DixonSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
88.1%
Derrick Henry 56 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4313% → 13%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 4 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
86.4%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex Erickson, broken up by Dalvin TomlinsonSimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
86.8%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+18
87.5%
Drew Meyer punt for 37 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 18 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:5089% → 88%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
88.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 16 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Vince Biegel) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
88.7%
Jake Coker run for 11 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
89.2%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-5
89.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Dakota Ball) to the Wisc 23Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-5
89.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Cam Robinson) to the Wisc 28Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 17
OPP 28
0
89.2%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 17
OPP 28
-10
88.8%
Drake, Kenyan rush for 6 yards to the WISCONSIN22, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Pierschbacher, Ross) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 27
OPP 38
+11
89.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Derrick Henry for 11 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 16
OPP 27
+44
88.4%
Adam Griffith 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1912% → 12%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
87.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Tanner McEvoy, broken up by Dalvin TomlinsonSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
88.0%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Corey ClementSimilar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
88.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex Erickson, broken up by Minkah FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+39
88.5%
Drew Meyer punt for 39 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:4890% → 97%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
90.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 15 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
90.7%
Drake, Kenyan rush for no gain to the ALABAMA48, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Robinson, Cam) 10 yards to the ALABAMA38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+21
90.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 21 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
90.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 16 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
91.0%
Kenyan Drake run for 12 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
91.0%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius Stewart, broken up by T.J. EdwardsSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
91.1%
Derrick Henry run for 11 yds to the Wisc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.0%
Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 3:563% → 5%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
96.6%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Watt, Derek, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Hamilton, Shaun) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Taiwan Deal run for no gain to the Wisc 48Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
96.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 8 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
96.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 5 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
96.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 1 yd to the Alab 38Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+14
97.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 14 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
97.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 4 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
97.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy Fumagalli, broken up by Eddie JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
97.4%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Tanner McEvoy, broken up by Cyrus JonesSimilar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 6
OPP 20
-5
97.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Logan Schmidt) to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
94.6%
Rafael Gaglianone 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18MISSED FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 4:4096% → 97%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.8%
Cooper Bateman run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
96.0%
Kenyan Drake run for 7 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
96.5%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
96.8%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to O.J. Howard for 5 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+7
97.0%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
97.1%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 11 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
97.2%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 13 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
97.3%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 2 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
97.3%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Wisc 22Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
97.2%
Cooper Bateman pass incomplete to Kenyan DrakeSimilar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
97.0%
Adam Griffith 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:024% → 4%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
96.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Robert WheelwrightSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-9
96.3%
Joel Stave sacked by Minkah Fitzpatrick for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 13Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 19
OWN 13
0
96.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 19
OWN 13
+7
96.5%
Drew Meyer punt for 36 yds for a 1ST down , Cyrus Jones returns for 7 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (D'Cota Dixon) to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:4498% → 100%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
97.5%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Damien Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 14
OPP 31
-10
97.5%
Harris, Damien rush for 1 yard to the WISCONSIN30, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Bozeman, Bradley) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 24
OPP 41
-2
97.5%
Cooper Bateman sacked by Alec James for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 26
OPP 43
+43
99.6%
Kenyan Drake 43 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:081% → 3%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.2%
Alex Erickson run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 3 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
99.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 4 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+12
99.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 12 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Taiwan Deal for 4 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+14
99.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 14 yds to the Alab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
99.1%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Wheelwright, Robert, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Fitzpatrick, Minkah) 10 yards to the ALABAMA3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q4 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.0%
Robert Wheelwright 3 Yd pass from Joel Stave (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:2398% → 99%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
97.7%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 5
OWN 12
-2
98.6%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 10Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+8
98.9%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
99.0%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Ty Flournoy-Smith for 17 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
99.1%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+2
99.1%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+4
99.2%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+12
99.2%
JK Scott punt for 38 yds , Alex Erickson returns for 12 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23INT
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:121% → 1%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
99.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 12 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+51
99.4%
Joel Stave pass intercepted Eddie Jackson return for 41 yds to the WISCONSIN 25 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Maurice Smith) to the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:4599% → 99%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
99.3%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+10
99.3%
Damien Harris run for 10 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:42
Derrick Henry 56 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)
+7.9
TD · Q2 6:39
Robert Foster 17 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick)
+6.2
TD · Q3 5:17
Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com