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UNLV

UNLV 14 at Houston 47

HOU
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:40 · Logan Piper punt for 43 yds , Keith Whitely returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior+31.9Home team on offense+2.8Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:11: Keith Whitely run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK) — UNLV win probability +1.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:30: John O'Korn pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +5.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:47: John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +5.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:52: George Naufahu run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK) — UNLV win probability +4.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 13:51: Kyle Bullard 41 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 11
  1. Q1 9:23UNLV 4th & 1 at HOU 32, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:33UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:47UNLV 4th & 6 at HOU 41, down 6
    Close callPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00HOU 4th & 18 at HOU 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:40UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 48, down 6
    Close callPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:40HOU 4th & 16 at HOU 14, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:54UNLV 4th & 2 at midfield, down 6
    Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:39HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 38, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:31UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 43, down 6
    Close callPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:30UNLV 4th & 12 at HOU 39, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%
    36% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:47UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 29, down 20
    Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:08HOU 4th & 12 at UNLV 24, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:52UNLV 4th & 1 at HOU 1, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:51HOU 4th & 16 at UNLV 24, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:51UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 28, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:14UNLV 4th & 6 at HOU 41, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:27HOU 4th & 1 at UNLV 22, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:05HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 16, up 33
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:11UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:33HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:30HOU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:47HOU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:52UNLV Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:34HOU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:14HOU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:499% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
91.3%
Blake Decker run for 4 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
91.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 8 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
91.3%
Blake Decker run for 4 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
91.3%
Matt Lea run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
50
+39
91.3%
Keith Whitely run for 39 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
91.3%
Keith Whitely run for 6 yds to the Houst 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+2
91.3%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the Houst 3Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
89.6%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
89.7%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+28
89.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 28 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
89.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
89.8%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+9
89.7%
John O'Korn pass intercepted Marc Philippi return for 9 yds to the Houst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3MISSED FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4511% → 11%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
89.1%
Blake Decker run for 9 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
89.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
89.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+50
88.9%
Nicolai Bornand 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:5089% → 89%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+33
89.0%
Ryan Jackson run for 33 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
89.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
89.3%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+9
89.2%
John O'Korn run for 9 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
89.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay Greenberry, broken up by Peni VeaSimilar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
89.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+14
89.2%
John O'Korn run for 14 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.3%
John O'Korn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.8%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
88.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
88.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete, broken up by Joey MbuSimilar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
89.0%
Logan Yunker punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5789% → 90%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
88.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Markeith AmblesSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
88.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+18
88.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 18 yds to the HOUSTON 35 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
90.0%
Daniel Spencer run for 35 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.4%
Keith Whitely run for 8 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
89.1%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
89.3%
Keith Whitely run for 6 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
89.2%
DECKER, Blake sideline right pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Anthony, PENALTY HOU illegal participation (WALKER, Turon) 15 yards to the HOU45, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
89.0%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
89.0%
George Naufahu run for 3 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+6
89.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 6 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-5
89.2%
UNLV Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
89.3%
Logan Yunker punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4489% → 88%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
88.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
89.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 2 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
89.0%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-8
88.9%
John O'Korn sacked by Kenny Keys and Josh Shirley for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 23
0
88.2%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Demarcus Ayers, broken up by Blake RichmondSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 23
0
88.0%
Logan Piper punt for 54 yds, downed at the UNLV 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
88.0%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
88.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+18
88.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 18 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
87.6%
Blake Decker sacked by Trevor Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+3
88.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+9
88.1%
Blake Decker run for 9 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
87.9%
Logan Yunker punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the Houst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
87.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 9 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 1
OWN 18
0
88.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
87.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
88.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-7
88.0%
John O'Korn sacked by Siuea Vaesau and Sonny Sanitoa for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 14Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
87.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+43
87.3%
Logan Piper punt for 43 yds , Keith Whitely returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
86.1%
Keith Whitely run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 2
50
0
85.4%
Keith Whitely run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 2
50
0
85.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante Davis, broken up by Derrick MathewsSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 2
50
0
86.2%
Logan Yunker punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the Houst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
87.6%
Daniel Spencer run for 1 yd to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
87.5%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+17
87.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 17 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
87.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+1
87.5%
John O'Korn run for 1 yd to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+82
87.0%
Logan Piper punt for 26 yds, downed at the HOUSTON 36 UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding (Matt Vinal) to the UNLV 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
86.1%
Keith Whitely run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 12Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 11
OWN 12
0
86.2%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+25
86.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 25 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
85.5%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
85.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 5 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-1
84.9%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 43Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
86.1%
Logan Yunker punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
86.3%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 7 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+7
86.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
86.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 21 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
87.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 4 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+12
86.9%
John O'Korn pass intercepted Sidney Hodge return for 12 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:1717% → 14%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
83.0%
Blake Decker run for 15 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
82.3%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
83.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Keith WhitelySimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
84.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 7
OPP 34
-5
85.3%
UNLV Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 12
OPP 39
+10
86.3%
Blake Decker run for 10 yds to the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:3087% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+32
86.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 17 yds to the HOUSTON 41 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Sonny Sanitoa) to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
92.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
90.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 8 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+12
90.5%
Keith Whitely run for 12 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
90.5%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Eric Eiland return for 6 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:4892% → 97%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
92.3%
Daniel Spencer run for 1 yd to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+5
92.3%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 5 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+9
92.1%
John O'Korn run for 9 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
92.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the UNLV 16Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
97.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
96.7%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+5
96.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 5 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
96.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for no gain to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
96.7%
Logan Yunker punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:0698% → 98%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
97.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Tyler McCloskey) to the Houst 17Similar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+11
97.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 11 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
97.7%
John O'Korn run for 5 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
97.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+15
97.5%
O'KORN, John deep pass incomplete to SPENCER, Daniel, PENALTY LV pass interference (KEYS, Kenny) 15 yards to the LV49, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Ryan JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
97.5%
Ryan Jackson run for 11 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
97.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 16 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
97.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-5
97.6%
John O'Korn sacked by Josh Shirley for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
97.5%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Markeith Ambles, broken up by Torry McTyerSimilar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+41
97.5%
Kyle Bullard 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:162% → 7%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
97.6%
DECKER, Blake deep pass incomplete to BOYD, Devonte, PENALTY HOU pass interference (McDONALD, Adrian) 15 yards to the LV44, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.6%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to George NaufahuSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
97.6%
DECKER, Blake deep pass incomplete to KEYS, Kendal, PENALTY HOU pass interference (WALKER, Turon) 15 yards to the HOU41, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
97.5%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Maika Mataele, broken up by Derrick MathewsSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 0
0
97.2%
DECKER, Blake rush quarterback keeper for 15 yards to the HOU26 (STEWART, Trevon), PENALTY LV holding off-setting, PENALTY HOU face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-4
97.5%
Blake Decker run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 45 Blake Decker fumbled, recovered by UNLV Blake DeckerSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+5
97.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 5 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+15
97.6%
DECKER, Blake deep pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Anthony, PENALTY HOU pass interference (STEWART, Trevon) 15 yards to the HOU25, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
97.2%
George Naufahu run for 2 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+22
97.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 22 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.2%
George Naufahu run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.2%
George Naufahu run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.4%
Blake Decker run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.2%
George Naufahu run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 4:0195% → 98%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
95.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 1 yd to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+8
95.2%
John O'Korn run for 8 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+12
95.2%
Ryan Jackson run for 12 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
95.5%
Ryan Jackson run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
50
+22
95.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 22 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
95.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Rowdy Harper) to the UNLV 33Similar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+15
95.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 15 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
96.0%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
96.0%
Ryan Jackson run for 9 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-15
95.9%
JACKSON, Ryan rush up middle for no gain to the LV9 (VINAL, Matt;SANITOA, Sonny), PENALTY HOU face mask 15 yards to the LV24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 24
0
95.8%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 16
OPP 24
+41
98.0%
Kyle Bullard 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
96.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 7 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-3
96.5%
Keith Whitely run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+1
96.8%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
96.8%
Logan Yunker punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the Houst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:1598% → 100%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
98.4%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+58
98.4%
Ryan Jackson run for 55 yds to the HOUSTON 6 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Torry McTyer) to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
98.5%
UNLV Penalty, substitution infraction (2 Yards) to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Keith Whitely run for no gain to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+29
99.8%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Adrian McDonald return for 29 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
99.7%
WEBB, Javin rush left for no gain to the LV23 (LEA, Matt;KOKI, Asten), PENALTY LV face mask (LEA, Matt) 12 yards to the LV11, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Nick Sherry pass incomplete to Andrew Price, broken up by Lee HightowerSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Nick Sherry pass complete to Kendal Keys for 6 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+14
99.9%
Nick Sherry pass complete to Andrew Price for 14 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.9%
Nick Sherry pass complete to Kendal Keys for 4 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Nick Sherry pass incomplete to Andrew Price, broken up by Steven TaylorSimilar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Nick Sherry pass incomplete to Andrew PriceSimilar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Nick Sherry pass incomplete to Andrew PriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 1
50
+19
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 19 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+5
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 5 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the UNLV 22Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Javin Webb run for no gain to the UNLV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 30INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
George Naufahu run for 3 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Nick Sherry pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
George Naufahu run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Nick Sherry pass complete to George Naufahu for 9 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Nick Sherry pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
George Naufahu run for 15 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Nick Sherry pass intercepted Howard Wilson return for no gain to the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 31DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Javin Webb run for no gain to the Houst 10Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 4 yds to the Houst 14Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+2
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 2 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
100.0%
Billy Cosh pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:30
John O'Korn pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q3 11:47
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q3 2:52
George Naufahu run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)
-4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com