Try the model
TROY

Troy 13 at South Alabama 27

USA
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 24, 2014 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:35 · Ryan Kay punt for 47 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Pregame prior+22.6Home team on offense+4.3Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:09: Shavarez Smith 45 Yd pass from Brandon Bridge (Aleem Sunanon Kick) — USA win probability +2.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:27: Ryan Kay 38 Yd Field Goal — TROY win probability +4.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:28: Xavier Johnson 14 Yd Run (Aleem Sunanon Kick) — USA win probability +7.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:09: Kendall Houston 41 Yd Run (Aleem Sunanon Kick) — USA win probability +7.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:00: B.J. Chitty 8 Yd pass from Dontreal Pruitt (Ryan Kay Kick) — TROY win probability +5.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 13:03TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17USA 4th & 3 at TROY 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    77.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:14TROY 4th & 10 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:57TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:07USA 4th & 10 at USA 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:35TROY 4th & 23 at USA 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:11USA 4th & 3 at USA 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:48TROY 4th & 8 at USA 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:41USA 4th & 4 at USA 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:09TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.1%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:50USA 4th & 26 at USA 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−3.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:27TROY 4th & 8 at USA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−7.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:57TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:53TROY 4th & 16 at USA 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:32USA 4th & 4 at TROY 35, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:17TROY 4th & 18 at TROY 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:34USA 4th & 7 at TROY 16, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 4:09USA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:28USA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:09USA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:00TROY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3419% → 19%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
81.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 13Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+6
81.2%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-1
81.0%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
80.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 45 yds, fair catch by T.J. Glover at the SAlab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:2881% → 81%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
80.8%
Kendall Houston run for 2 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+12
80.8%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 12 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
80.8%
Kendall Houston run for 1 yd to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+20
80.7%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 20 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
80.8%
Brandon Bridge run for 1 yd to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+6
80.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
80.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
80.5%
Aleem Sunanon 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:0320% → 20%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
80.4%
TROY Penalty, Illegal Formation (NA) to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 16
OWN 14
-1
80.3%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 13Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+5
80.3%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+32
80.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
50
-10
79.5%
TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+2
79.8%
Khary Franklin run for 2 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+8
79.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jalen Harris for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 10
50
0
79.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 10
50
0
79.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 28 yds, downed at the SAlab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 1:5479% → 82%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
79.4%
Kendall Houston run for 7 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+9
79.5%
Kendall Houston run for 9 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
79.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
79.3%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
50
+5
79.7%
Terrance Timmons run for 5 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
79.8%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+45
81.8%
Shavarez Smith 45 Yd pass from Brandon Bridge (Aleem Sunanon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0219% → 19%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
80.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+5
81.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 5 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
81.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tommy BlevinsSimilar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+9
81.5%
Ryan Kay punt for 47 yds , Jereme Jones returns for 9 yds to the SAlab 43 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (NA) to the SAlab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:2481% → 81%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
81.3%
Kendall Houston run for 2 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+7
81.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Kendall Houston for 7 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+8
81.0%
Kendall Houston run for 8 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
81.3%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Terrance Timmons for 6 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
81.5%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Cameron Broadnax for 4 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
81.9%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Wes SaxtonSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
81.7%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
81.2%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
80.6%
Brandon McKee punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:2619% → 18%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
81.3%
Jarvis Bentley run for 19 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
81.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 14 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
80.5%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the SAlab 44Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
80.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 10 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
79.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Nyck YoungSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-13
79.9%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the SAlab 32 TROY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (NA) to the SAlab 47Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 23
OPP 47
0
81.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Nyck YoungSimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 23
OPP 47
0
81.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1781% → 81%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
81.2%
Kendall Houston run for 2 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
81.4%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ethan Davis) to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
81.6%
Kendall Houston run for 8 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+1
82.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-2
81.6%
Brandon Bridge run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
80.9%
Brandon McKee punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:1718% → 21%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+23
81.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 8 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Terrell Brigham) to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
81.2%
Khary Franklin run for 2 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
81.0%
Khary Franklin run for 7 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
80.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
80.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 10 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
80.6%
Brandon Burks run for 14 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
79.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+6
80.0%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
80.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
79.2%
Ryan Kay 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0781% → 80%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
80.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Wes Saxton) to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+9
80.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 9 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
81.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 2 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
81.0%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
80.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 51 yds, downed at the Troy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11END OF HALF
17 plays · 71 yds · 4:3620% → 22%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
80.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 12 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
79.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 13 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
79.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
78.8%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
78.6%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
79.1%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
78.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
77.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+12
79.6%
Chandler Worthy run for 12 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
78.0%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-2
78.6%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+15
80.4%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Davin Hawkins) to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
77.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
78.3%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the SAlab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 1:5381% → 79%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
81.3%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Xavier Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
80.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-10
80.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Melvin Meggs) to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 17
OWN 29
-9
79.4%
Brandon Bridge run for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 20Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 26
OWN 20
0
78.5%
Brandon McKee punt blocked by Drew Thompson Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0124% → 27%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
75.9%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
75.8%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the SAlab 21Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
77.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jordan ChunnSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
72.9%
Ryan Kay 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:4575% → 87%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
74.5%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ethan Davis) to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
78.3%
Kendall Houston run for 14 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
79.1%
Kendall Houston run for 13 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
79.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+10
79.7%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Holding (Femi Odaibo) to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
86.9%
Xavier Johnson 14 Yd Run (Aleem Sunanon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1515% → 14%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
84.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
84.6%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
85.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Kinderick DentSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
86.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 44 yds , Jereme Jones returns for no gain to the SAlab 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:3786% → 95%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
86.2%
Kendall Houston run for 4 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+15
86.3%
Kendall Houston run for 15 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
87.3%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Braedon BowmanSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
86.9%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+15
86.2%
Terrance Timmons run for 15 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
87.5%
Terrance Timmons run for 2 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+41
95.4%
Kendall Houston 41 Yd Run (Aleem Sunanon Kick)Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-15
95.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Danny Woodson) to the SAlab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 3:586% → 5%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for no gain to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
94.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Devon Earl) to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
94.1%
Khary Franklin run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 6
50
+10
94.2%
Khary Franklin run for 10 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
94.2%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-3
94.4%
Teddy Ruben run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+3
95.0%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 11
OPP 41
-5
95.1%
TROY Penalty, Delay of Game (NA) to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
95.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds, downed at the SAlab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:1296% → 97%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
95.5%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the SAlab 11Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+14
96.4%
Kendall Houston run for 14 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Braedon BowmanSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
96.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 13 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
97.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 9 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+12
97.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 12 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
97.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
97.5%
Terrance Timmons run for no gain to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
97.5%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:074% → 3%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
96.1%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 20 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.0%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
96.0%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-8
96.1%
Dontreal Pruitt sacked by Theo Rich for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
96.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 42 yds, downed at the SAlab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 6:3297% → 100%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
97.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+8
97.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 11 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.6%
Kendall Houston run for 4 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+27
97.7%
Kendall Houston run for 27 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
97.9%
Brandon Bridge run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+1
98.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+15
98.2%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ethan Davis) to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
98.3%
Terrance Timmons run for 5 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
98.4%
Terrance Timmons run for no gain to the Troy 14Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-2
98.5%
Terrance Timmons run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
99.5%
Aleem Sunanon 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:131% → 6%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.4%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
99.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Antonio Carter) to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.3%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 4 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
99.4%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 5 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+16
99.4%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 16 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+39
99.4%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 39 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.2%
B.J. Chitty 8 Yd pass from Dontreal Pruitt (Ryan Kay Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4598% → 98%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
98.3%
Kendall Houston run for 4 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-2
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:09
Kendall Houston 41 Yd Run (Aleem Sunanon Kick)
+7.8
TD · Q3 9:28
Xavier Johnson 14 Yd Run (Aleem Sunanon Kick)
+7.3
TD · Q4 1:00
B.J. Chitty 8 Yd pass from Dontreal Pruitt (Ryan Kay Kick)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com