2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadSAV aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreSAV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:16 · Christian Stewart run for 9 yds to the SavSt 10 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:31: Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 9 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6SAV made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 13:33SAV 4th & 7 at SAV 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q1 7:17SAV 4th & 5 at SAV 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q1 3:25SAV 4th & 10 at SAV 49, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q1 2:03BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 35, up 21Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:57SAV 4th & 1 at SAV 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:16BYU 4th & 1 at SAV 19, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%71% to convertField goal99.5%−0.177% to makePunt99.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 12:05SAV 4th & 21 at SAV 14, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call-0.1%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q2 9:59SAV 4th & 8 at SAV 21, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 14:54SAV 4th & 14 at SAV 16, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 12:15SAV 4th & 5 at BYU 30, down 51Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%41% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.156% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:20BYU 4th & 19 at BYU 21, up 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q3 9:27SAV 4th & 8 at BYU 49, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:55BYU 4th & 9 at SAV 13, up 51Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%85% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 12:47BYU 4th & 1 at SAV 14, up 54Close callKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%71% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−0.184% to makePunt99.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 12:38SAV 4th & 18 at SAV 45, down 57Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:08BYU 4th & 5 at SAV 6, up 57Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.133% to convertField goal99.9%91% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 13:40BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:24BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:32BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:31BYU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:05BYU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:03BYU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:12BYU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:08BYU Touchdown, up 63 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBYUDrive 1TD5 plays · 85 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 6 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 3 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+71
99.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 71 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.9%
Leon Prunty pass complete to Dereon London for 11 yds to the SavSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
99.9%
Leon Prunty run for a loss of 1 yard to the SavSt 30 Leon Prunty fumbled, forced by Zac Stout, recovered by SavSt Dereon LondonSimilar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Leon Prunty pass complete to Kris Drummond for 4 yds to the SavSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q1 10:31
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+12
99.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 12 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Adam Hine run for 2 yds to the BYU 38 Adam Hine fumbled, forced by William Broadbent, recovered by BYU Paul LasikeSimilar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+23
99.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 23 yds to the SavSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+8
99.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 8 yds to the SavSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BYUDrive 5TD7 plays · 61 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q1 5:34
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+24
99.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 24 yds to the SavSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+16
99.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 16 yds to the SavSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 15 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.8%
Leon Prunty pass complete to Jeremiah Harris for 3 yds to the SavSt 41Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Leon Prunty pass incomplete to Richard Williams, broken up by Zac StoutSimilar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+11
99.8%
John Barron punt for 36 yds , Jordan Leslie returns for 11 yds to the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
99.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 8 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-1
99.8%
STEWART,Christ pass complete to LASIKE,Paul for 11 yards to the BYU45 (DIXON,Justin), PENALTY BYU holding 1 yards to the BYU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+76
99.8%
Scott Arellano punt for 61 yds, downed at the SAVANNAHST 4 for a 1ST down SAVANNAH ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SavSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 8DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:430% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD8 plays · 28 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
SAVDrive 10INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BYUDrive 11TD1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 12DOWNS7 plays · -24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 12:05
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-1
99.9%
Leon Prunty sacked by Harvey Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the SavSt 14Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 21
OWN 14
-13
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the SavSt 1 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SavSt SAVANNAH ST Penalty, illegal kicking ( Yards) to the SavSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BYUDrive 15TD11 plays · 59 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q2 8:12
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+8
99.9%
McCoy Hill pass complete to Nate Carter for 8 yds to the SavSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
HILL,McCoy pass incomplete to APO,Ross (REYNOLDS,S.), PENALTY SSU pass interference 4 yards to the SSU2, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 16SF6 plays · 0 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Leon Prunty pass complete to Jeremiah Harris for 3 yds to the SavSt 24Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
John Barron punt blocked by for a SAFETY blocked by for a SAFETY for a SAFETY SAVANNAH ST Penalty, illegal kicking ( Yards) to the SavSt 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17END OF HALF6 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
99.9%
Leon Prunty sacked by Tanner Balderree and Kesni Tausinga for a loss of 10 yards to the SavSt 10Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+6
99.9%
Leon Prunty pass complete to Jeremiah Harris for 6 yds to the SavSt 16Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+10
99.9%
John Barron punt for 44 yds , Devon Blackmon returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19FUMBLE3 plays · -15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-32
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 32 yards to the BYU 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SavSt Marcus LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 20DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Leon Prunty pass complete to Jeremiah Harris for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:20
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Scott Arellano punt for 42 yds , Ker-Sean Wilson returns for no gain to the SavSt 37 Ker-Sean Wilson fumbled, recovered by SavSt Ker-Sean WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BYUDrive 23FG12 plays · 72 yds · 5:15100% → 100%
Q3 5:10
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+19
99.9%
McCoy Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 19 yds to the SavSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 24FUMBLE2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
Michael Knox run for a loss of 2 yards to the SavSt 23 Michael Knox fumbled, recovered by BYU Tanner BalderreeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25FG4 plays · 9 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 26PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BYUDrive 27TD13 plays · 76 yds · 7:52100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 28FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
100.0%
Anthony Criswell run for 1 yd to the SavSt 22 Anthony Criswell fumbled, forced by Skye PoVey, recovered by BYU Theodore KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 29END OF GAME3 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:31
Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 9 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
+0.1