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ULM

UL Monroe 16 at Georgia Southern 22

GASO
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Kevin Ellison punt for 33 yds, downed at the LaMon 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior+17.5Home team on offense−1.9Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score differential−1.0Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:13: Kevin Ellison 10 Yd Run (Alex Hanks PAT failed) — GASO win probability +11.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:40: Ajalen Holley 36 Yd pass from Pete Thomas (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ULM win probability +22.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:52: Matt Breida 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo PAT failed) — GASO win probability +20.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:28: Alfred Ramsby 7 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick) — GASO win probability +20.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:04: Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the LaMon 43 — GASO win probability +14.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:27ULM 4th & 10 at GASO 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:27GASO 4th & 1 at ULM 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.9%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:38GASO 4th & 8 at ULM 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:22ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:26GASO 4th & 2 at ULM 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:38GASO 4th & 2 at ULM 11, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%−1.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−6.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:38ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:19GASO 4th & 2 at ULM 30, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.6%−0.8
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00GASO 4th & 7 at ULM 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    66.0%−1.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:27ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 18, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:40GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 34, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:11GASO 4th & 5 at ULM 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−3.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:52ULM 4th & 29 at ULM 6, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−5.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:04ULM 4th & 16 at GASO 30, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:48GASO 4th & 2 at ULM 37, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−1.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−1.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:37ULM 4th & 2 at GASO 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−8.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−10.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 6:22ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:13GASO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:40ULM Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    50.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:52GASO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:28GASO Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 2:3317% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
82.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 3 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+10
82.6%
Thomas, Pete deep right pass incomplete, PENALTY GS holding (Wright, Nick) 10 yards to the ULM37, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
82.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 14 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
82.6%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+8
82.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 8 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
82.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 6 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
82.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+5
82.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 5 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
82.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
82.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
82.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
81.8%
Justin Manton 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2FG
17 plays · 62 yds · 8:4982% → 80%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
81.9%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
81.9%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+12
81.8%
Matt Breida run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
82.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+19
82.0%
Zach Walker run for 19 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
82.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
82.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+3
82.1%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+3
82.0%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
82.1%
Zach Walker run for 6 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
82.1%
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+4
82.1%
Alfred Ramsby run for 4 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
80.6%
Ellison, Kevin rush quarterback keeper for 12 yards to the ULM0, clock 06:00, PENALTY GS holding 10 yards to the ULM22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+4
80.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 4 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 16
OPP 18
-5
80.5%
Montay Crockett run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 23Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 21
OPP 23
+13
80.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 13 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
80.1%
Alex Hanks 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3FUMBLE
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
80.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 3 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
79.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+17
80.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 17 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
79.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 6 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+7
79.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 7 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
79.3%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
79.3%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+14
79.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 14 yds Kenzee Jackson fumbled, forced by Caleb Williams, recovered by GeoSo Caleb WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:2079% → 78%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
79.2%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
78.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
79.1%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
78.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
79.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Devin Scott for no gain to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
78.4%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
78.5%
Kaylon Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 17Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+6
78.7%
Brayle Brown run for 6 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+7
78.9%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 7 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
78.4%
Brayle Brown pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by Nick WrightSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
78.5%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Alec Osborne for 8 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
77.7%
Brayle Brown run for 1 yd to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
78.4%
Justin Manton punt for 39 yds , Derek Keaton returns for no gain to the GeoSo 22 Derek Keaton fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Derek KeatonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 55 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
77.4%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+46
77.5%
Favian Upshaw run for 46 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
79.2%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-1
79.2%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+2
78.7%
Favian Upshaw run for 2 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 2
OPP 21
-2
77.9%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:4423% → 31%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
76.9%
Centarius Donald run for 14 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
68.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 63 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:3570% → 69%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
70.0%
Alfred Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
71.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
71.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Alfred Ramsby for 38 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
72.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 5 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+2
72.9%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+1
71.9%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the LaMon 11Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+29
68.5%
Alex Hanks 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
65.7%
Tyler Cain run for 2 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
65.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tyler CainSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
66.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tyler CainSimilar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+5
67.8%
Justin Manton punt for 41 yds , Derek Keaton returns for 5 yds to the GeoSo 27 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (Nick Wright) to the GeoSo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10DOWNS
14 plays · 38 yds · 1:1967% → 67%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
66.8%
Alfred Ramsby run for no gain to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
66.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Zach Walker for 9 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+6
68.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
68.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Zach WalkerSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
68.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Zach Walker for 15 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
69.9%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Zach WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
69.8%
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+6
69.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 2
OPP 30
0
67.1%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
63.9%
TEAM takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
65.3%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
65.8%
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
64.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
65.8%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-7
65.6%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Gerrand Johnson and Michael Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 25
+19
64.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 19 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
67.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 11 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
68.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
68.6%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Kentrellis ShowersSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
68.1%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Alfred RamsbySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
66.3%
Kevin Ellison punt for 33 yds, downed at the LaMon 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
60.5%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-5
60.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Frank Sutton Jr.) to the LaMon 8Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+8
60.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 8 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+2
61.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 2 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
62.3%
Justin Manton punt for 56 yds, downed at the GeoSo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:2658% → 76%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
57.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
58.1%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+24
56.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 24 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+36
62.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Kentrellis Showers for 36 yds to the LaMon 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
75.5%
Kevin Ellison 10 Yd Run (Alex Hanks PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:3334% → 56%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
50
-5
66.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Frank Sutton Jr.) to the LaMon 45Similar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+9
68.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 9 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
66.2%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+6
66.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 6 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
66.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 4 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
44.1%
Ajalen Holley 36 Yd pass from Pete Thomas (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.6%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
53.8%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
52.5%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
50.2%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3954% → 52%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
45.9%
Centarius Donald run for 6 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+1
43.3%
Pete Thomas run for 1 yd to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-5
44.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
48.2%
Justin Manton punt, downed at the LaMon 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD
13 plays · 40 yds · 4:3553% → 75%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.2%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Kentrellis ShowersSimilar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-10
52.8%
Ellison, Kevin deep middle pass complete to Breida, Matt for 40 yards to the ULM0, clock 13:11, PENALTY GS holding 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 20
50
0
49.2%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Derek Keaton, broken up by Justin BackusSimilar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 20
50
+15
47.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Zach Walker for 15 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+18
49.2%
Ezayi Youyoute run for 18 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
55.0%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 14
OPP 21
0
54.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Kentrellis ShowersSimilar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 14
OPP 21
0
49.6%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+9
46.1%
Ellison, Kevin medium middle pass intercepted by Lane, Mitch at the ULM5, Lane, Mitch return to the ULM5, PENALTY ULM holding 9 yards to the ULM12, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
55.0%
Ezayi Youyoute run for 4 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+7
55.0%
Ezayi Youyoute run for 7 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.1%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the LaMon 1Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.2%
Matt Breida 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -19 yds · 0:0033% → 29%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.1%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-14
66.5%
Thomas, Pete short left pass complete to Cain, Tyler for 8 yards to the ULM36, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Jackson, Kenzee) 14 yards to the ULM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
67.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-8
69.5%
Pete Thomas sacked by Jamal Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 6Similar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 29
OWN 6
0
71.4%
Justin Manton punt for 53 yds , Tray Butler returns for no gain to the GeoSo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:1672% → 93%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
71.8%
Alfred Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+48
72.4%
Ezayi Youyoute run for 48 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.7%
Alfred Ramsby 7 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21FG
13 plays · 34 yds · 3:1210% → 18%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
90.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 3 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+16
89.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 16 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
89.4%
Pete Thomas run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
89.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Alec Osborne for 6 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+1
89.1%
Pete Thomas run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
88.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 9 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 1
OPP 26
-4
88.0%
Pete Thomas sacked by N/A for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+6
89.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 6 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
88.0%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tyler CainSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-6
88.5%
Pete Thomas sacked by Bernard Dawson for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 16
OPP 30
0
90.5%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+47
82.1%
Justin Manton 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:1694% → 95%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
94.1%
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
95.6%
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+4
95.4%
Ezayi Youyoute run for 4 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
94.9%
Ezayi Youyoute punt for 18 yds, downed at the LaMon 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23END OF GAME
11 plays · 62 yds · 1:349% → 15%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
90.6%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+40
90.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 40 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
87.1%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
87.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyrone Carter for 5 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+3
87.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 3 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+9
88.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 9 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
81.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 5 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
79.5%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by Matt DobsonSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
85.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:40
Ajalen Holley 36 Yd pass from Pete Thomas (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-22
TD · Q4 5:28
Alfred Ramsby 7 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)
+20.3
TD · Q4 8:52
Matt Breida 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo PAT failed)
+20.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com