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NAVY

Navy 42 at South Alabama 40

USA
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2014 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:56 · Brandon McKee punt for 43 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Home team on offense−2.9Pregame prior−9.9Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:07: Chris Swain run for 34 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +13.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:04: Noah Copeland run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:46: Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declined — NAVY win probability +11.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:31: Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 48 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +10.3 pts (now 18%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:39: Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Brandon Bridge intercepted ) — USA win probability +23.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:10USA 4th & 2 at NAVY 17, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:10NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:18NAVY 4th & 5 at USA 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:32USA 4th & 1 at USA 48, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:56USA 4th & 5 at NAVY 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at USA 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−4.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:04USA 4th & 3 at USA 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:43NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:43USA 4th & 7 at NAVY 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−6.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:46USA 4th & 15 at USA 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:41USA 4th & 3 at NAVY 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%−2.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:56USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:56NAVY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:35USA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:32NAVY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:07NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:04NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:46NAVY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:33USA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:22NAVY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:31USA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.5 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 4:0432% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
31.6%
Terrance Timmons run for 3 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-2
31.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+28
31.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 13 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
31.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 14 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
31.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 18 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
31.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the Navy 7 Xavier Johnson fumbled, forced by Jordan Drake,Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
31.6%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
35.1%
Terrance Timmons run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
34.7%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
34.7%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+54
34.7%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 54 yds to the Navy 25 DeBrandon Sanders fumbled, recovered by SAlab Maleki HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2337% → 37%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
36.6%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
36.6%
Brandon Bridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+5
36.4%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 5 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
37.3%
Aleem Sunanon 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
36.8%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
36.7%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 6 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
36.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
36.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
39.5%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+46
39.4%
Brandon Bridge pass intercepted for a 1ST down Myer Krah return for 31 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:3662% → 64%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
37.8%
Noah Copeland run for 1 yd to the SAlab 13Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
35.8%
Noah Copeland run for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:2137% → 45%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
36.9%
Kendall Houston run for 5 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+7
37.0%
Kendall Houston run for 7 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
37.3%
Brandon Bridge run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+44
36.9%
Terrance Timmons run for 44 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
38.2%
Kendall Houston run for 4 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
38.2%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+8
37.8%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 8 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
38.2%
Kendall Houston run for 5 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
45.3%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 3 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:1757% → 52%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
43.2%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Theo Rich for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+8
44.5%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 8 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+15
43.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 15 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
43.2%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+6
43.2%
Demond Brown run for 6 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-2
43.1%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+3
47.9%
Jamir Tillman run for 3 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9INT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0048% → 49%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
48.3%
Terrance Timmons run for 2 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+1
48.3%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 1 yd to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+13
47.8%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 13 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
49.3%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 6
50
+7
49.4%
Kendall Houston run for 7 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
49.5%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jake HowtonSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
49.4%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Terrance Timmons for 6 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+13
49.1%
Brandon Bridge pass intercepted George Jamison return for 13 yds to the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 1:1348% → 56%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
52.5%
Noah Copeland run for 5 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
51.8%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+67
44.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 67 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
45.4%
Kendall Houston run for 15 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
46.3%
Kendall Houston run for 2 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
46.7%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+4
46.5%
Terrance Timmons run for 4 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
46.1%
Brandon McKee punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:4954% → 67%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by E.J. MaySimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.5%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+42
47.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Demond Brown for 42 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
33.4%
Chris Swain run for 34 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 2:1138% → 37%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.7%
Kendall Houston run for no gain to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.5%
Kendall Houston run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
38.0%
Brandon Bridge run for 7 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
39.0%
Terrance Timmons run for 9 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+7
40.8%
Terrance Timmons run for 7 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
41.3%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Kendall Houston for 1 yd to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
41.1%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Wes Saxton for 4 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
38.3%
Hunter Vaughn pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
36.5%
Brandon McKee punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
35.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Ryan Williams-Jenkins, broken up by Devon EarlSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
36.2%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:5664% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
35.6%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 6 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
34.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
34.9%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
33.7%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
34.0%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
33.6%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 4 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-1
33.3%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+6
33.7%
Noah Copeland run for 6 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+14
35.1%
Toneo Gulley run for 14 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
32.2%
Demond Brown run for 13 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
32.2%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+10
32.2%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 10 yds to the SAlab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.0%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
23.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
22.3%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
21.7%
Brandon McKee punt for 62 yds, downed at the Navy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
22.2%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 7Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+2
22.3%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 2 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 7
OWN 9
0
22.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 7
OWN 9
0
23.3%
Pablo Beltran punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4124% → 25%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
24.4%
Terrance Timmons run for 9 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+7
25.7%
Terrance Timmons run for 7 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
25.7%
Kendall Houston run for 2 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+1
25.7%
Kendall Houston run for 1 yd to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
24.2%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
25.2%
Aleem Sunanon 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:5778% → 91%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
22.0%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 12 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
20.9%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+11
20.9%
Dishan Romine run for 11 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+42
20.5%
Noah Copeland run for 42 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
13.7%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Terrance Timmons for 3 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
14.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Terrance TimmonsSimilar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-8
13.8%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Will Anthony for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 30Similar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+3
12.8%
Brandon McKee punt for 51 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 3 yds to the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
8.8%
Noah Copeland run for 12 yds to the Navy 37 Noah Copeland fumbled, forced by Jeremy Reaves, recovered by SAlab Caleb ButlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:3415% → 26%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
15.1%
Kendall Houston run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
15.9%
Kendall Houston run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+11
15.5%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 11 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
15.9%
Kendall Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+11
15.4%
Terrance Timmons run for 11 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
15.5%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
15.9%
Terrance Timmons run for 1 yd to the Navy 6Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
26.1%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 6 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:1183% → 95%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
17.2%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
16.8%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
15.6%
Noah Copeland run for 8 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, horse-collar tackle (Terrell Brigham) to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
14.9%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+22
14.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 22 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
14.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 12 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:517% → 18%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
6.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+3
6.6%
Brandon Bridge run for 3 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+14
6.6%
Terrance Timmons run for 14 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
7.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Kendall Houston for 5 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
7.3%
Kendall Houston run for 6 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
17.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 48 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5691% → 92%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
8.8%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-3
8.5%
Noah Copeland run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-3
8.1%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 48 Geoffrey Whiteside fumbled, forced by Montell Garner, recovered by SAlab Theo RichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26TD
15 plays · 48 yds · 3:5117% → 42%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
16.6%
Terrance Timmons run for 6 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+5
17.2%
Terrance Timmons run for 5 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
17.0%
Kendall Houston run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+7
18.4%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 7 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-2
17.6%
Terrance Timmons run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+9
8.7%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 9 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
12.2%
Kendall Houston run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+7
9.7%
Brandon Bridge run for 7 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+8
10.7%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 8 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
12.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
12.2%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Danny Woodson, broken up by Quincy AdamsSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
35.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Brandon Bridge intercepted )Similar
Q4 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
42.6%
Bridge, Brandon pass attempt to Smith, Shavarez good, PENALTY USA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the NAVY8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
41.8%
Bridge, Brandon rush attempt good, PENALTY USA holding (Dearman, Drew) 10 yards to the NAVY18, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
8.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:39
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Brandon Bridge intercepted )
+23
TD · Q2 3:07
Chris Swain run for 34 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q3 9:04
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com