Try the model
ULM

UL Monroe 30 at New Mexico State 17

NMSU
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:42 · Justin Manton punt for 56 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior−11.8Home team on offense−2.0Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:53: Larry Rose III 37 Yd Run (Maxwell Johnson Kick) — NMSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q2 7:30: Maxwell Johnson 32 Yd Field Goal — NMSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:16: Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK) — ULM win probability +6.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:47: Larry Rose III 64 Yd Run (Maxwell Johnson Kick) — NMSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 12:05: Justin Manton 21 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +8.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 13 of 14ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 11:05ULM 4th & 9 at NMSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:03ULM 4th & 6 at NMSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:03NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:27NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 48, down 10
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:38ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:48ULM 4th & 10 at NMSU 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:30NMSU 4th & 15 at ULM 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−5.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:42ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:39NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−1.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:04ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 27, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:35NMSU 4th & 1 at ULM 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%−3.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−13.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:02NMSU 4th & 3 at ULM 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−1.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−9.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:22ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:46NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−3.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:46NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:05ULM 4th & 4 at NMSU 4, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.6%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−10.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:05NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:30ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 47, up 13
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:05NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 21, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.9%−1.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:05NMSU 4th & 10 at ULM 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−0.8
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:16ULM 4th & 3 at midfield, up 13
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−0.8
    average punt
  24. Q4 2:43NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:27ULM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:16ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:47NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:5571% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
29.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 14 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
29.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 15 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
29.5%
Ajalen Holley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+5
29.5%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
29.5%
Pete Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
29.5%
Pete Thomas run for no gain to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
29.5%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+44
31.2%
Justin Manton 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
31.4%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
31.3%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+5
31.1%
Andrew Allen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
31.2%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 56 yds, downed at the LaMon 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3FG
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:0868% → 67%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
32.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 5 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+10
32.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Alec Osborne for 10 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
32.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal participation (5 Yards) to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 5
OWN 32
+8
31.8%
Tyler Cain run for 8 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+45
31.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 45 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
31.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 2 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-3
31.4%
Tyler Cain run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+5
31.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 5 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
32.6%
Justin Manton 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
32.4%
Andrew Allen run for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 13 Andrew Allen fumbled, forced by Ray Stovall,Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
32.3%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+10
31.9%
Andrew Allen run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+51
31.8%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 5 , Rashon Ceaser returns for 51 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3568% → 71%
Q1 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
32.1%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.2%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.5%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
29.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 14 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
30.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
30.2%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
30.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
29.6%
Alex Louthan punt for 45 yds, downed at the LaMon 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
29.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
30.0%
Pete Thomas run for no gain to the LaMon 7Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 7
0
30.3%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 10
OWN 7
0
30.5%
Justin Manton punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 0:4930% → 36%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
30.1%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
30.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 6 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+37
35.9%
Larry Rose III 37 Yd Run (Maxwell Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
33.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 16 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
33.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 7 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
33.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
50
+9
32.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
32.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Alec Osborne, broken up by Stody BradleySimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
32.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 3 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
32.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
32.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
33.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Centarius DonaldSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
34.1%
Justin Manton punt for 24 yds, downed at the NMxSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 4:4835% → 40%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
35.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-2
35.0%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+13
34.3%
Larry Rose III run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.2%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
35.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 11 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
35.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
37.0%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
36.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 3 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-1
37.2%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 8
50
+15
36.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cordero Smith) to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
37.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 27 yds to the LaMon 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
37.9%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 10Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
37.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
37.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel BrownSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
36.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
39.6%
Maxwell Johnson 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1463% → 72%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
36.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 17 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
35.5%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Centarius DonaldSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
35.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
35.2%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
35.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Centarius Donald for 30 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
34.4%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
34.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 6 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2930% → 43%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-3
31.7%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
29.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 5 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
43.3%
Larry Rose III 64 Yd Run (Maxwell Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
39.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 9 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
37.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 4 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
37.7%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
37.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 6 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
37.0%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tyler CainSimilar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
38.9%
Justin Manton punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:4443% → 43%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.9%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
42.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+4
43.2%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
42.6%
Alex Louthan punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:3262% → 68%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
37.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 18 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
35.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 6 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
35.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Alec Osborne for 3 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+12
36.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 12 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
35.1%
Pete Thomas run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+22
31.7%
Justin Manton 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
37.3%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
38.3%
Derek Ibekwe run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
38.0%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
39.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
37.0%
Alex Louthan punt for 40 yds, downed at the LaMon 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
36.0%
Centarius Donald run for 6 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
35.4%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Centarius DonaldSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+3
36.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 3 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+15
37.7%
Justin Manton punt for 62 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for 15 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18FUMBLE
9 plays · 73 yds · 0:0038% → 43%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+47
37.6%
Larry Rose III run for 47 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
42.6%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+3
42.6%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
42.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+2
42.6%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the LaMon 9Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+2
40.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+1
39.4%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the LaMon 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
42.6%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.6%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the LaMon 1 Tyler Rogers fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by LaMon Justin BackusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-4
36.9%
Pete Thomas pass intercepted Winston Rose return for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0044% → 40%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
44.2%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+7
43.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 7 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+1
42.3%
Marquette Washington run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 3
OPP 26
0
40.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam ShapiroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
36.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 9 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-5
35.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Frank Sutton Jr.) to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
35.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+6
37.4%
Pete Thomas run for 6 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
35.5%
Pete Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 35Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+5
36.6%
Tyler Cain run for 5 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
35.0%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
37.8%
Justin Manton punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT TD
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0039% → 18%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
38.7%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
38.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+6
37.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 6 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
39.1%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
38.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Joey GautneySimilar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
36.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Mitch LaneSimilar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+1
18.2%
Alex Louthan punt blocked by Alex Johnson blocked by Alex Johnson Mitch Lane return for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.4%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
21.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
20.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph MatthewsSimilar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
19.3%
Alex Louthan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:2980% → 90%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
20.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+11
21.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 11 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+11
19.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Adaryan Jones) to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
18.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 17 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
17.8%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+21
17.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 21 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
17.6%
UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Chase Regian) to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 23
+11
17.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 11 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+8
17.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 8 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
18.2%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
9.8%
Justin Manton 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
15.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Trey Caldwell) to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
15.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
15.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel BrownSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-8
14.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Michael Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 16
OWN 26
0
14.1%
Alex Louthan punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
7.4%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+1
7.3%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
7.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
8.3%
Justin Manton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gregory Hogan at the NMxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
10.8%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+5
10.4%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+7
10.2%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+3
10.4%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
11.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Dean for 8 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 2
OWN 32
-5
11.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Lorenzo Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+13
10.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 13 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
12.0%
Larry Rose III run for 17 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
13.2%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
12.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
12.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
11.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph MatthewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5495% → 96%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
5.4%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
5.3%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+3
4.3%
Pete Thomas run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 3
50
0
4.4%
Justin Manton punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
4.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 8 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
4.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 5 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
4.8%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Trey Caldwell return for 9 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 30FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
3.1%
Centarius Donald run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
3.1%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 44 Centarius Donald fumbled, forced by Jay Eakins, recovered by NMxStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
4.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam ShapiroSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-2
4.4%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Michael Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
4.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel BrownSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
4.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Cody RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
2.3%
Tyler Cain run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-1
2.3%
Tyler Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-1
2.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:47
Larry Rose III 64 Yd Run (Maxwell Johnson Kick)
+13.4
FG · Q4 12:05
Justin Manton 21 yd FG GOOD
-8.5
TD · Q2 4:16
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com