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TXST

Texas State 20 at South Alabama 24

USA
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-10.9USA 68.5%Will Johnson 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 24 · Q4 4:21
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:21 · Will Johnson 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+17.5+8.80−8.8−17.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Home team on offense+4.9Pregame prior+0.7Garbage-time factor+2.8Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Time remaining+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:07: Jake Howton pass complete to Hunter Vaughn for 28 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +9.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 4:17: Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 46 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +10.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:00: Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Danny Woodson for 8 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +14.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:18: Terrance Timmons run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +24.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:21: Will Johnson 31 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +10.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:18USA 4th & 5 at USA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:14TXST 4th & 9 at USA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    38.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:14TXST 4th & 1 at USA 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%−0.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:31TXST 4th & 3 at USA 21, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:31USA 4th & 3 at USA 49, down 10
    Close callPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 23, up 10
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:34USA 4th & 3 at TXST 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:07TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:17USA 4th & 2 at USA 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:16USA 4th & 9 at TXST 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:00TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:28USA 4th & 8 at USA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−2.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:44TXST 4th & 9 at USA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:18TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 16, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−3.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:21TXST 4th & 9 at USA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−9.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:35USA 4th & 7 at USA 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:26TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.9%−4.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:39TXST 4th & 2 at USA 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−5.8
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−15.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:22TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:07USA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:17TXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:00USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:18USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.4%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
59.4%
C.J. Best run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
59.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for no gain to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
59.4%
Will Johnson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by T.J. Glover at the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
59.5%
Terrance Timmons run for 4 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
59.5%
Terrance Timmons run for 7 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
59.6%
Hunter Vaughn run for no gain to the SAlab 41Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
59.5%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Kendall Houston for 5 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
59.5%
Hunter Vaughn pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
59.4%
Brandon McKee punt for 44 yds , Craig Mager returns for no gain to the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
59.4%
C.J. Best run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+7
59.4%
C.J. Best run for 7 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
59.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 25 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
59.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 10 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
59.0%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+5
59.0%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 2
OPP 0
-12
59.0%
Tim Gay run for 3 yds to the TexSt 34 TEXAS STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Terrence Franks) to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 29
OWN 36
+20
59.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 20 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
59.4%
Will Johnson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by T.J. Glover at the SAlab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
59.4%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 12 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
59.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+8
59.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 44 Xavier Johnson fumbled, forced by David Mayo, recovered by TexSt Dila RosemondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:3842% → 46%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
58.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon Smith, broken up by E.J. MaySimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
58.4%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 46Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+16
58.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 16 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
58.1%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+7
58.1%
Terrence Franks run for 7 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
58.1%
Terrence Franks run for 15 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.1%
Jones,Tyler rush for loss of 1 yard to the USA2 (Garner, Montell;Kelley, Jesse), PENALTY USA offside defense (Lewis, Akeem) 0 yards to the USA1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.9%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.3%
Hunter Vaughn run for 8 yds to the SAlab 32 Hunter Vaughn fumbled, forced by Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon, recovered by TexSt David MayoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5846% → 46%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
53.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 3 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
53.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+6
54.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 6 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+41
53.6%
Will Johnson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3647% → 48%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
52.9%
Terrence Franks run for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+8
52.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 8 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-2
53.2%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 21Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
52.4%
Will Johnson 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
51.8%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Jereme Jones for 6 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, horse-collar tackle (15 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
52.5%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Jereme Jones for 5 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
52.9%
Kendall Houston run for 2 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
52.6%
Hunter Vaughn pass incomplete to Terrance TimmonsSimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
52.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 48 yds, downed at the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
52.2%
Robert Lowe run for 11 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
52.0%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+4
51.9%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
52.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley MillerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
52.7%
Will Johnson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:2751% → 60%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
50.7%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Terrance Timmons for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 4
50
-11
51.2%
Terrance Timmons run for 4 yds to the SOUTHALA 46 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Joseph Scelfo) to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
50.4%
Terrance Timmons run for 19 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
51.3%
Hunter Vaughn run for 1 yd to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+6
51.3%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 6 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
51.2%
Hunter Vaughn pass incomplete to Shavarez Smith, broken up by Craig MagerSimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+7
50.2%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Jereme Jones for 7 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
59.6%
Jake Howton pass complete to Hunter Vaughn for 28 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
55.3%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
55.7%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+8
55.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 8 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
54.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 5 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-5
54.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Ryan Melton) to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
54.7%
Terrence Franks run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
55.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon Smith, broken up by Montell GarnerSimilar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
56.6%
Will Johnson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by T.J. Glover at the SAlab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
54.3%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Terrance Timmons for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 12Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+5
54.2%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Jereme Jones for 5 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+6
53.2%
Hunter Vaughn run for 6 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
52.9%
Brandon McKee punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:1948% → 58%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
51.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
52.2%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+7
52.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 7 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
41.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 46 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:0143% → 45%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
43.2%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Danny Woodson for 5 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
43.7%
Terrance Timmons run for 4 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+31
43.9%
Kendall Houston run for 31 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
46.5%
Hunter Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-1
46.5%
Hunter Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
45.1%
Hunter Vaughn pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
45.6%
Aleem Sunanon 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
44.7%
Sunanon, Aleem kickoff 65 yards to the TXST0, touchback, PENALTY USA offside (Hendricks, Rush) 5 yards to the USA30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17MISSED FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 1:1657% → 62%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
43.1%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+14
42.2%
Robert Lowe run for 14 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
40.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 12 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
39.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+19
39.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 19 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
38.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+14
38.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 14 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
37.8%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+42
38.1%
Will Johnson 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0044% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.8%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Danny Woodson for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
45.8%
Hunter Vaughn run for 2 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
44.3%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 14 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
46.7%
Hunter Vaughn sacked by Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon and Michael Odiari for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+5
44.4%
Kendall Houston run for 5 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+45
43.3%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 45 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
48.8%
Hunter Vaughn run for 1 yd to the TexSt 8Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
63.3%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Danny Woodson for 8 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
55.5%
Terrence Franks run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
55.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley Miller, broken up by Jimmie GipsonSimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+4
56.7%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
57.6%
Will Johnson punt for 53 yds, downed at the SAlab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
58.6%
Hunter Vaughn run for 6 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
59.1%
Terrance Timmons run for 5 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
59.2%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 7 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+1
61.7%
Kendall Houston run for 1 yd to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-1
60.6%
Terrance Timmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 38Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 3
OWN 38
-5
57.9%
McKee, Brandon punt 62 yards to the TXST0, touchback, PENALTY USA illegal motion (Garrett, Claude) 5 yards to the USA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
56.5%
Brandon McKee punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 41 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
55.2%
Tyler Jones sacked by Jesse Kelley for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 16
OWN 17
+21
55.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 21 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
53.3%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
51.9%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
52.0%
Tim Gay run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
51.4%
Tyler Jones sacked by Jimmie Gipson for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 17
OWN 42
0
54.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+21
55.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 21 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
51.2%
Jones,Tyler pass complete to Lowe,Robert for 15 yards to the USA22, out-of-bounds (Brigham, Trrell), PENALTY TXST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the USA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+6
52.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 6 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
51.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
51.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. Best, broken up by Tre AlfordSimilar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
54.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:2860% → 87%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
59.6%
Terrance Timmons run for 11 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.1%
Hunter Vaughn pass incomplete to Braedon BowmanSimilar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
61.3%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 8 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+10
62.3%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 10 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
64.2%
Hunter Vaughn pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
64.2%
Kendall Houston run for 15 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
64.3%
Kendall Houston run for 6 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+2
64.3%
Kendall Houston run for 2 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
62.5%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
86.7%
Terrance Timmons run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
80.6%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+9
80.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 9 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 1
OWN 16
0
81.2%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
82.1%
Will Johnson punt for 52 yds, downed at the SAlab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24INT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0085% → 87%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
85.4%
Hunter Vaughn pass incomplete to Braedon BowmanSimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
85.2%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Cameron Broadnax for 5 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+9
85.4%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Danny Woodson for 9 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
87.1%
Terrance Timmons run for 8 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-10
87.5%
Houston, Kndall rush for 8 yards to the TXST38 (McClarty,D.), PENALTY USA holding (Dearman, Drew) 10 yards to the USA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+14
86.3%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Jereme Jones for 14 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
87.5%
Kendall Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+5
87.1%
Terrance Timmons run for 5 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+46
86.7%
Hunter Vaughn pass intercepted David Mims return for 46 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:0424% → 32%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
76.5%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
76.5%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+9
79.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 9 yds to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
76.5%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-4
76.5%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 13Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
79.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
68.5%
Will Johnson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4683% → 85%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
83.0%
Hunter Vaughn run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 20Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+4
82.4%
Kendall Houston run for 4 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+2
81.6%
Hunter Vaughn run for 2 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
84.9%
Brandon McKee punt for 29 yds, downed at the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27END OF GAME
17 plays · 51 yds · 1:4725% → 19%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
74.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 5
50
0
72.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 5
50
-2
73.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+21
78.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 21 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
69.8%
Tyler Jones sacked by Jesse Kelley for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 18
OPP 39
0
81.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 18
OPP 39
+11
84.0%
Jones,Tyler pass incomplete to Best,C.J., PENALTY USA pass interference (Earl, Devon) 11 yards to the USA28, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
74.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
75.4%
Robert Lowe run for 10 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
74.2%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
80.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+5
83.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 5 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+6
85.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 6 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
80.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
80.7%
TEAM pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:18
Terrance Timmons run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)
+24.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.3
TD · Q3 11:00
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Danny Woodson for 8 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)
+14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com