Try the model
TROY

Troy 34 at Idaho 17

IDHO
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Kibbie Dome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IDHO
modelIDHO aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playIDHO scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:00 · Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd to the Troy 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense−1.1Pregame prior+12.4Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:20: Jordan Chunn run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +11.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:54: Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 64 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +9.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:56: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 51 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +12.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:49: Jerrel Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +11.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:30: Matt Linehan pass intercepted for a TD Montres Kitchens return for 28 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +16.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IDHO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 13:16IDHO 4th & 2 at IDHO 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:35TROY 4th & 1 at IDHO 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:00IDHO 4th & 1 at TROY 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:26IDHO 4th & 2 at TROY 6, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%−0.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−4.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:36TROY 4th & 4 at IDHO 22, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:56IDHO 4th & 21 at TROY 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−1.9
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:56TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:28TROY 4th & 9 at IDHO 25, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.5%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:54IDHO 4th & 6 at IDHO 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:00TROY 4th & 18 at TROY 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−4.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:28IDHO 4th & 2 at TROY 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−14.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:08TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 48, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:53TROY 4th & 3 at IDHO 16, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%−0.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−10.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:20IDHO 4th & 10 at TROY 35, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:12TROY 4th & 3 at IDHO 3, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−8.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:06IDHO 4th & 4 at TROY 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−1.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:24TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:08IDHO 4th & 12 at IDHO 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:18TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IDHO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:16TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:20TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:54IDHO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:56TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:49IDHO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:30TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:4436% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
64.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+8
64.3%
Josh Anderson run for 8 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+30
64.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 30 yds to the Idaho 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
63.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 41 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
63.7%
R Montgomery rush for loss of 2 yards to the IDAHO23 (Hall, Tray), PENALTY TROY offside defense (Odaibo, Femi) 10 yards to the IDAHO35, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+4
63.8%
Jerrel Brown run for 4 yds to the Idaho 34Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
63.8%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
63.7%
Elijhaa Penny run for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 33Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
63.6%
Austin Rehkow punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
62.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 8 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+9
62.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 9 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
62.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 9 yds to the Idaho 48Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+6
62.6%
Josh Anderson run for 6 yds to the Idaho 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
62.6%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Ryan Edwards for a loss of 7 yards to the Idaho 49Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 17
OPP 49
+6
62.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Idaho 43Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+5
62.7%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete, PENALTY IDAHO offside defense (Quinton Bradley) 5 yards to the IDAHO38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+7
62.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 7 yds to the Idaho 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
62.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
62.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Idaho 23Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
62.6%
Khary Franklin run for 1 yd to the Idaho 22Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 1
OPP 22
-2
62.7%
Josh Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 4FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:3461% → 62%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
60.8%
Jerrel Brown run for 18 yds to the Idaho 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
61.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 4 yds to the Idaho 46Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+9
61.5%
Jerrel Brown run for 9 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
61.7%
Jerrel Brown run for 8 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
61.7%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
61.7%
Jerrel Brown run for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
61.7%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Justin PodrabskySimilar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+1
61.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
62.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCain, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Davis, Ethan) 21 yards to the TROY14, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
62.0%
Jerrel Brown run for no gain to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+8
62.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 8 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
61.7%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
61.6%
Austin Rehkow 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:4040% → 43%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
60.1%
Khary Franklin run for 24 yds to the Idaho 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
59.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+4
59.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
59.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
56.6%
Ryan Kay 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 6MISSED FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:3457% → 55%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+30
57.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 30 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
59.0%
Jerrel Brown run for 12 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
59.4%
Matt Linehan rush for 9 yards to the TROY25 (Young, Jacquez), PENALTY TROY personal foul (Young, Jacquez) 21 yards to the TROY13, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
59.4%
Jerrel Brown rush for 2 yards to the TROY11 (Chunn, Jordan), PENALTY IDAHO holding (Mason Woods) 10 yards to the TROY23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+5
59.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 5 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 18
0
59.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete, broken up by JaQuadrian LewisSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 18
-6
57.7%
Matt Linehan run for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 21
OPP 24
+41
55.4%
Austin Rehkow 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 5:3645% → 59%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
55.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
55.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+2
55.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+27
55.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 27 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
54.0%
Khary Franklin run for a loss of 10 yards to the Idaho 46Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 20
OPP 46
+10
54.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 10 yds to the Idaho 36Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+10
53.5%
Khary Franklin run for 10 yds to the Idaho 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-8
53.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for a loss of 8 yards to the Idaho 34Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 18
OPP 34
+6
53.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Idaho 28Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+3
53.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 3 yds to the Idaho 25Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+11
54.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 11 yds to the Idaho 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
53.0%
Josh Anderson run for 1 yd to the Idaho 13Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
41.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 8TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:1744% → 53%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
43.5%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+64
52.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 64 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:5049% → 62%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
51.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 2 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+1
51.0%
Khary Franklin run for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+13
51.0%
Khary Franklin run for 13 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
38.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 51 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 10TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:0140% → 55%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
40.4%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Justin Podrabsky, broken up by Sam LebbieSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+64
40.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 64 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
43.5%
Jerrel Brown run for 14 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
43.5%
Jerrel Brown run for 1 yd to the Troy 1Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.2%
Jerrel Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FUMBLE
10 plays · 49 yds · 0:0050% → 52%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
49.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+3
49.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+16
49.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 16 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
47.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 6 yds to the Idaho 47Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-2
47.3%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 49Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+14
47.8%
Chandler Worthy run for 14 yds to the Idaho 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
47.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete, broken up by Bradley NjokuSimilar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
47.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to K.D. EdenfieldSimilar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+10
47.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 10 yds B.J. Chitty fumbled, forced by Bradley Njoku, recovered by Idaho Armond HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:1548% → 49%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
48.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for 15 yds to the Idaho 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
46.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 14 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
49.0%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
48.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
47.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the Idaho 48Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
48.4%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
46.5%
Austin Rehkow punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+21
44.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 21 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
43.5%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 25
-5
44.5%
TROY Penalty, false start (Ethan Hutson) to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 20
OWN 20
-1
44.4%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 21
OWN 19
+6
44.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 6 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 15
OWN 25
-3
45.5%
Khary Franklin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 14:00
4TH & 18
OWN 22
0
46.4%
Ryan Kay punt blocked by Tony Lashley blocked by Tony LashleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 15INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0050% → 46%
Q3 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
49.5%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
49.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
47.7%
Matt Linehan run for 4 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
45.9%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted Montres Kitchens return for no gain to the Troy 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:0058% → 59%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
41.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 20 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
39.1%
Josh Anderson run for 1 yd to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+2
39.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+5
39.7%
IDAHO Penalty, offside defense (Quayshawne Buckley) to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
39.3%
Brandon Silvers run for no gain to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
40.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 40 yds, fair catch by David Ungerer at the Idaho 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 17INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
41.4%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the Idaho 14Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
41.3%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted Montres Kitchens return for no gain to the Troy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:1464% → 65%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
35.8%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Mitchell Roland) to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
37.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 19 yds to the Idaho 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
35.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 9 yds to the Idaho 38Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+15
35.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 15 yds to the Idaho 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
34.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Idaho 20Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
34.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+4
35.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 4 yds to the Idaho 16Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
35.3%
Ryan Kay 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 19INT TD
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:2339% → 19%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
39.3%
Aaron Duckworth run for 1 yd to the Idaho 21Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
39.2%
Jerrel Brown run for 8 yds to the Idaho 29Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
39.2%
Jerrel Brown run for 1 yd to the Idaho 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
37.6%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
36.8%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Joshua McCain) to the Idaho 25Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 15
OWN 0
0
35.4%
PENALTY TROY unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY IDAHO unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+28
19.3%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted for a TD Montres Kitchens return for 28 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
21.2%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the Idaho 44Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+21
21.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 21 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
22.4%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Justin PodrabskySimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
22.3%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
21.5%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+9
20.7%
Matt Linehan run for 9 yds to the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 6:3584% → 94%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
16.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+9
16.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 9 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
15.4%
Khary Franklin run for 6 yds to the Troy 43 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+1
16.1%
Khary Franklin run for 1 yd to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
16.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+18
15.0%
Khary Franklin run for 18 yds to the Idaho 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
13.0%
Khary Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+1
13.1%
Khary Franklin run for 1 yd to the Idaho 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+21
13.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 6 yds to the Idaho 42 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, roughing passer (Quinton Bradley) to the Idaho 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
12.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
12.3%
Brandon Silvers run for 4 yds to the Idaho 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+8
12.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 8 yds to the Idaho 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
12.3%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the Idaho 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
12.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Idaho 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
12.6%
Kinderick Dent pass incomplete TROY Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
6.4%
Ryan Kay 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
6.6%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 15 yds to the Idaho 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
6.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 12 yds to the Idaho 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
7.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 6 yds to the Idaho 45Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+9
7.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 9 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
7.6%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon Watson, broken up by Tray HallSimilar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
7.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+4
7.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for 4 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
7.5%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
4.8%
Khary Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+5
5.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+6
4.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 1
OWN 49
-5
5.0%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
5.0%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds, downed at the Idaho 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
3.4%
Elijhaa Penny run for 8 yds to the Idaho 23Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+2
3.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the Idaho 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
3.5%
Matt Linehan sacked by Garrett Peek for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 23Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
3.4%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Justin PodrabskySimilar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
3.3%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
3.3%
Austin Rehkow punt for 46 yds, downed at the Troy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:1897% → 99%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
2.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
2.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+6
2.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
2.6%
Khary Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+3
1.6%
Khary Franklin run for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+1
1.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
1.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
0.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 7 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:30
Matt Linehan pass intercepted for a TD Montres Kitchens return for 28 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
-16.2
TD · Q2 4:56
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 51 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q2 7:20
Jordan Chunn run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com