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UL

Louisiana 44 at New Mexico State 16

NMSU
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.2NMSU 16.3%Maxwell Johnson 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 9:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:34 · Maxwell Johnson 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior−35.2Home team on offense+0.6Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:26: Terrance Broadway pass complete to Jared Johnson for 5 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK) — UL win probability +1.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:09: Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK) — UL win probability +4.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:44: Effrem Reed run for 2 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK) — UL win probability +6.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:23: Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 4 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK) — UL win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:15: Teldrick Morgan 42 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson PAT blocked) — NMSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:05NMSU 4th & 3 at UL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34NMSU 4th & 5 at UL 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:04UL 4th & 10 at NMSU 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    78.2%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:36NMSU 4th & 1 at UL 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−1.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:30UL 4th & 1 at UL 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:12NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:44NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 46, down 11
    Close callPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:18UL 4th & 5 at UL 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:36NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 41, down 11
    Close callPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:10NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:42UL 4th & 14 at UL 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:26NMSU 4th & 4 at UL 13, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:01UL 4th & 6 at NMSU 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:50UL 4th & 18 at NMSU 46, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:01NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 22, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:36UL 4th & 2 at UL 27, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 2:26UL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:09UL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:44UL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:23UL Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:15NMSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:16UL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:26UL Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:09NMSU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1FG
18 plays · 70 yds · 5:2113% → 16%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
13.4%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
13.4%
Larry Rose III run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
13.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
13.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+10
14.0%
Larry Rose III run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
14.3%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+2
14.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for 2 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
14.9%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+5
15.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 5 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
15.5%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
15.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel BrownSimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+24
15.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 24 yds to the LaLaf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
15.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel BrownSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
16.1%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
16.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
16.3%
Maxwell Johnson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:0484% → 83%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.3%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
16.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
16.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
16.4%
Terrance Broadway run for no gain to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+11
16.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 11 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
16.8%
Effrem Reed run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-5
16.8%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+4
17.5%
Terrance Broadway run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+19
17.6%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 19 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
17.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+6
18.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
18.2%
Terrance Broadway run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
18.4%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+3
19.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
19.2%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.2%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Jared Johnson for 5 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:4118% → 20%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.3%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
18.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+24
18.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
50
-1
19.5%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 49 Tyler Rogers fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Rodrick StephensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:5682% → 81%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
18.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 7 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+3
18.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
18.3%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Matthew BarnesSimilar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
18.3%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
18.5%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
19.3%
Daniel Cadona punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:2419% → 21%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
19.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 15 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
19.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 24 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
20.6%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
20.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 5 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
20.5%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-3
21.1%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0080% → 79%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
20.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
19.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
19.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Effrem Reed for 3 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
20.7%
Daniel Cadona punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Gregory Hogan at the NMxSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0821% → 21%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
21.2%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+1
21.4%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
20.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
21.1%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the NMxSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 0:5180% → 84%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
20.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 31 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
20.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
16.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1917% → 17%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.8%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
17.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 10 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
16.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
16.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
16.8%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
16.7%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 44 yds, downed at the LaLaf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1283% → 82%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
17.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+1
17.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
17.4%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+1
17.7%
Daniel Cadona punt for 53 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2417% → 17%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
16.9%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
16.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
17.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+5
16.8%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 35 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 5 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 2:4683% → 92%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
16.9%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
17.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 9 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+8
16.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
16.3%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
16.2%
Terrance Broadway run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+25
15.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 25 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
14.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+15
14.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to C.J. Bates for 15 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.6%
Effrem Reed run for 2 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:2811% → 10%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
10.8%
Xavier Hall run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
11.2%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
11.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Xavier HallSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
10.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
10.0%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 36 yds, downed at the LaLaf 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
8.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2792% → 98%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
8.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
8.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Illegal Participation (5 Yards) to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+3
8.1%
Terrance Broadway run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+10
8.2%
Effrem Reed run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+37
7.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 37 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
7.2%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+8
7.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 8 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 4 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:452% → 10%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.8%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
1.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 17 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
1.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+13
1.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
1.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
9.8%
Teldrick Morgan 42 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:2196% → 97%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
4.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
4.0%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Stephen Meredith for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 16
OWN 30
0
3.9%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+2
4.1%
Terrance Broadway run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
3.4%
Daniel Cadona punt blocked by Adam Shapiro blocked by Adam ShapiroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:047% → 5%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
6.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for no gain to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
4.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+6
4.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 6 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
4.5%
Maxwell Johnson 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:1597% → 98%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
2.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
2.6%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+10
2.6%
Terrance Broadway run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+7
2.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
2.1%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
2.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
2.0%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
2.2%
Daniel Cadona punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:153% → 3%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
3.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+8
2.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 8 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+5
2.9%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
2.9%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Tracy Walker return for 14 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:4499% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
1.3%
Al Riles run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+5
1.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
0.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Jared Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:451% → 1%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
0.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
0.5%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Tracy Walker return for 5 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
0.4%
Effrem Reed run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
0.4%
Terrance Broadway pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+6
0.4%
Terrance Broadway run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
0.3%
Effrem Reed run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+27
0.3%
Effrem Reed run for 27 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
0.3%
Darius Hoggins run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
Darius Hoggins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:310% → 0%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.2%
Marquette Washington run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Jevante Watson return for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
0.2%
Effrem Reed run for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
0.2%
Darius Hoggins run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-12
0.2%
Brooks Haack sacked by Stephen Meredith for a loss of 12 yards to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
0.2%
Daniel Cadona punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.1%
Marquette Washington run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
0.1%
Marquette Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.1%
Marquette Washington run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
0.1%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 59 yds, downed at the LaLaf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
0.2%
Effrem Reed run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
0.2%
Effrem Reed run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+1
0.2%
Effrem Reed run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+56
0.2%
Daniel Cadona punt for 45 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 56 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
0.1%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
0.1%
Andrew Allen run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+4
0.1%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.1%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
0.1%
Effrem Reed run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Darius Hoggins run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
0.1%
Darius Hoggins run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:15
Teldrick Morgan 42 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson PAT blocked)
+8.5
TD · Q2 0:44
Effrem Reed run for 2 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q3 11:23
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 4 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)
-5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com