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GASO

Georgia Southern 28 at Texas State 25

TXST
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:08 · Ryan Nowicki punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Home team on offense−53.3Score differential−44.6Pregame prior−1.8Garbage-time factor−18.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:28: Will Johnson 39 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +3.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:14: Alfred Ramsby run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +6.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:04: Matt Breida run for 43 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +12.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:05: Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 32 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +10.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:00: Tyler Jones pass intercepted for a TD Matt Dobson return for 100 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +14.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:37GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:34TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:47TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00GASO 4th & 4 at TXST 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:28TXST 4th & 9 at GASO 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:10TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 46, down 11
    Close callPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:17GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 10, up 11
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:47TXST 4th & 7 at GASO 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:41GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:40GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 33, up 11
    Close callPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00TXST 4th & 1 at GASO 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−10.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:55TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 31, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:37GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 39, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:12TXST 4th & 1 at GASO 30, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:08GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 35, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:02GASO 4th & 2 at TXST 37, up 25
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:02GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:14GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:04GASO Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:05TXST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:00GASO Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
29.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
29.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 8 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
29.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 5 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
29.7%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
29.7%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
29.7%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+5
29.7%
Will Johnson punt for 43 yds , Tray Butler returns for 5 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
30.8%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
30.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
30.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
30.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
30.8%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+8
30.9%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 55 yds , Craig Mager returns for 8 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
32.2%
Terrence Franks run for 1 yd to the TexSt 16Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+1
32.2%
Terrence Franks run for 1 yd to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
32.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 8
OWN 17
-3
31.8%
Will Johnson punt for 53 yds , Tray Butler returns for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 14 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the GeoSo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 4:2167% → 70%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
32.6%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+13
32.7%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Derek Keaton for 13 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
32.5%
Ellison, Kevin deep out pass incomplete to Showers, Kentrellis, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Mager,Craig) 15 yards to the GSU45, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
32.1%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+9
32.4%
Matt Breida run for 9 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+41
32.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 41 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
31.8%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
31.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.8%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:1031% → 30%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
30.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 1 yd to the TexSt 12Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+1
30.8%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+13
30.0%
Robert Lowe run for 13 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
30.7%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
30.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 24 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexSt Tyler JonesSimilar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
30.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
29.8%
Will Johnson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tray Butler at the GeoSo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0771% → 70%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
29.1%
Alfred Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-5
29.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+5
29.5%
Favian Upshaw run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+3
29.2%
Favian Upshaw run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
29.6%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:4630% → 36%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
30.2%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+8
30.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 8 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.3%
Terrence Franks run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+26
30.3%
Terrence Franks run for 26 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
32.0%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+25
31.8%
C.J. Best run for 25 yds to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
32.7%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
32.6%
Terrence Franks run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
31.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
35.5%
Will Johnson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1466% → 75%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
33.9%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Kentrellis Showers for 5 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+22
33.9%
Alfred Ramsby run for 22 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+34
32.4%
Matt Breida run for 34 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
31.6%
Alfred Ramsby run for 8 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
24.9%
Alfred Ramsby run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.5%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
25.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 11 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
26.5%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
26.8%
Randy Price run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
26.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Terrence FranksSimilar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
25.8%
Will Johnson punt for 52 yds, downed at the GeoSo 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
26.3%
Alfred Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+1
26.5%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+4
26.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
27.1%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:2126% → 25%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
26.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley MillerSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
25.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 13 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
26.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 3 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
26.6%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
26.4%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+1
24.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 1 yd to the GeoSo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
24.4%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
25.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Matt BreidaSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+8
25.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Devin Scott for 8 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
24.5%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 26 yds, downed at the TexSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:3724% → 24%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
24.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for no gain to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
23.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 17 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
25.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 4 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-6
25.8%
Tyler Jones sacked by Deshawntee Gallon for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
23.5%
Jones,Tyler deep out pass complete to Gunter,Brice for 42 yards to the GSU9, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TXST illegal forward pass (Jones,Tyler) 0 yards to the TXST49, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.4%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
24.6%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Kentrellis ShowersSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
24.9%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Kentrellis ShowersSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
25.5%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
24.8%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
25.5%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
24.7%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Antonio Glover return for no gain to the GeoSo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 2:4877% → 90%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
22.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 5 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
22.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
23.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Kentrellis Showers for 5 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
22.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Alfred Ramsby for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+43
10.2%
Matt Breida run for 43 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:5214% → 25%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
14.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Terrence FranksSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
13.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 11 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
14.3%
Terrence Franks run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
14.6%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
14.7%
Tyler Jones sacked by Bernard Dawson for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 15
OPP 40
-15
13.8%
Jones,Tyler sideline pass complete to Gunter,Brice for 7 yards to the GSU33 (Williams, Caleb), PENALTY TXST pass interference (Franks, Terrence) 15 yards to the TXST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 30
OWN 45
-9
13.3%
Tyler Jones sacked by Quaun Daniels for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 39
OWN 36
+15
12.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley Miller for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (Matt Dobson) to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
14.3%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+12
14.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 12 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
14.8%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
25.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 32 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2579% → 78%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.7%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
20.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
21.2%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
21.7%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 22 yds, downed at the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19INT TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:5222% → 9%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
22.3%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+23
23.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 23 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
25.4%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+14
25.4%
Tyler Jones run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
25.4%
Terrence Franks run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
25.4%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
23.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 5 yds to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+100
9.4%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted for a TD Matt Dobson return for 100 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
0.6%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
0.6%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
0.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Lawrence White, broken up by Deion StanleySimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+36
0.6%
Will Johnson punt for 36 yds , Brandan Thomas returns for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
0.5%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
0.5%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
0.4%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+3
0.5%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 51 yds , Craig Mager returns for 3 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 4:500% → 1%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley MillerSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
0.4%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+5
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 5 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 6 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+6
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Randy Price for 6 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 24 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brice GunterSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-6
0.4%
Tyler Jones sacked by Justice Ejike for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+18
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 18 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
0.5%
Tyler Jones run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+9
0.5%
Jones,Tyler flag pass incomplete to White,Lawrence, PENALTY GSU holding (Hicklin, Tay) 9 yards to the GSU10, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
0.5%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.5%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.5%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
0.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 15 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
0.3%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+9
0.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 9 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
0.3%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the GeoSo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
0.2%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 12
OWN 28
-5
0.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, delay of game (Kevin Ellison) to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+1
0.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+11
0.2%
Matt Breida run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
0.2%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
0.2%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+13
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 13 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 18 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 14 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon Smith, broken up by Darius JonesSimilar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Randy Price for 7 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+9
0.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 9 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
0.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben Ijah, broken up by Nick WrightSimilar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+15
0.3%
Jones,Tyler flag pass incomplete to Garrey,Ryan, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Stanley, Deion) 15 yards to the GSU6, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 6 yds for a TD, (T. Jones Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
0.1%
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
0.1%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+2
0.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 2
OPP 37
-8
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:00
Tyler Jones pass intercepted for a TD Matt Dobson return for 100 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q3 10:04
Matt Breida run for 43 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 6:05
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 32 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com