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ULM

UL Monroe 29 at App State 31

APP
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG-1.6APP 59.1%Justin Manton 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 7 · Q1 0:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:43 · Justin Manton 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+6.2Home team on offense−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:32: Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 12 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK) — ULM win probability +10.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:06: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 1 yd for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +15.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:10: Marcus Cox run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +29.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:42: Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ULM win probability +37.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:29: Bentlee Critcher 39 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +47.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 9:58ULM 4th & 10 at APP 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:43ULM 4th & 6 at APP 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−2.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00APP 4th & 12 at APP 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:03ULM 4th & 5 at APP 45, down 1
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:32APP 4th & 15 at APP 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:02APP 4th & 3 at ULM 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:01ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 3 at APP 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:44ULM 4th & 17 at APP 18, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−3.8
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−10.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:44APP 4th & 8 at ULM 43, down 2
    Close callPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−1.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:04ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−4.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:11APP 4th & 4 at ULM 49, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−2.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:40APP 4th & 10 at APP 5, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−5.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:39ULM 4th & 3 at APP 45, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−6.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−3.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:10APP 4th & 1 at ULM 20, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−3.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−20.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:04ULM 4th & 5 at APP 11, down 5
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%−2.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−14.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:42ULM 4th & 3 at APP 3, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−11.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−23.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:29APP 4th & 10 at ULM 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−33.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−46.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:21APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:32ULM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:02ULM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:24APP Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06APP Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:10APP Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:42ULM Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    58.8%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:5742% → 42%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
58.1%
Pete Thomas run for no gain to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
58.2%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+39
58.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 39 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
58.1%
Centarius Donald run for no gain to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
58.1%
Centarius Donald run for 8 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
58.1%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
58.1%
Pete Thomas run for 4 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+9
58.1%
Centarius Donald run for 9 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
58.1%
Tyler Cain run for 1 yd to the AppSt 12Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
58.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 12
-1
58.1%
Pete Thomas sacked by Eric Boggs and Kennan Gilchrist for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 13Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
57.8%
Justin Manton 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:2958% → 61%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
57.8%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 21Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
57.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Bobo BeathardSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
57.6%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Jones, Malachi, PENALTY ULM offside (Johnson, G) 5 yards to the APP26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+10
57.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 10 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
58.0%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
58.0%
Taylor Lamb run for 3 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+15
57.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 15 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
58.5%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+12
58.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 12 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
58.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+12
58.2%
Marcus Cox run for 12 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+12
58.6%
UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Justin Backus) to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
58.6%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
58.6%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
60.8%
Simms McElfresh run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 3:3840% → 41%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
59.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 8 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.7%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Devan StringerSimilar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
59.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 12 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
58.9%
Thomas, Pete pass incomplete to Ceaser, Rashon, QB hurry by Ward, D.J., PENALTY APP roughing passer (Ward, D.J.) 15 yards to the APP38, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
58.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
59.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to De'Vonte Haggerty for 9 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
59.9%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
59.3%
Pete Thomas sacked by Deuce Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 16
OPP 31
0
59.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Devan StringerSimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 16
OPP 31
+10
60.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 10 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
59.1%
Justin Manton 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4360% → 59%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.3%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
60.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
59.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+14
59.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 41 yds , Rashon Ceaser returns for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
50
+7
58.1%
Tyler Cain run for 7 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
58.0%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-2
58.3%
Pete Thomas sacked by John Law for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
59.3%
Justin Manton punt for 42 yds, downed at the AppSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
60.5%
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd to the AppSt 4Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+17
60.3%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted Lenzy Pipkins return for 17 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
50.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 12 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
53.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
52.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 18Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+2
52.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Terrence Upshaw for 2 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+29
52.1%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 42 yds , Rashon Ceaser returns for 29 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:0552% → 58%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
48.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 32 yds to the AppSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.3%
Tyler Cain run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.3%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by John LawSimilar
Q2 8:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.4%
Pete Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3844% → 52%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.4%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
43.6%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
44.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 25 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
45.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfresh, broken up by Bryce RaySimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
45.0%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+6
44.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 6 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+5
44.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 5 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
46.3%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+15
46.3%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Beathard, Bobo, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Hunter, Tre') 15 yards to the ULM6, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
46.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 14 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AppSt Marcus CoxSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+6
45.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 6 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
51.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Tacoi Sumler for 8 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:2354% → 54%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.9%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
45.7%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
45.8%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
44.6%
Manton, Justin punt 50 yards to the APP17, Beathard, Bobo return to the APP11 (Lewis, R;McCullum, M), PENALTY ULM holding (Haggerty, D) 5 yards to the ULM28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
46.2%
Justin Manton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 0:3946% → 66%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
46.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 15 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
48.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 11 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
49.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 5 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+31
50.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 31 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 1 yd for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-13
57.7%
Pete Thomas sacked by Ronald Blair for a loss of 13 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
62.1%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
61.8%
Lamb, Taylor pass complete to Burns, Barrett for 17 yards to the APP40 (Robinson, Cody;Kissinger, H), PENALTY APP illegal touching (Burns, Barrett) 0 yards to the APP23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+9
60.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 9 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
60.6%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 43 yds , Rashon Ceaser returns for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:2339% → 48%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
60.8%
Pete Thomas run for 3 yds to the LaMon 29 Pete Thomas fumbled, recovered by LaMon Pete ThomasSimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-5
60.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
61.2%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+20
62.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 20 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
58.4%
Centarius Donald run for 9 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
57.2%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
57.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 13 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
56.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 19 yds to the AppSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-7
56.1%
Pete Thomas sacked by Nathaniel Norwood for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 17
OPP 18
0
57.2%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by Doug MiddletonSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 17
OPP 18
0
59.3%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon Ceaser, broken up by Doug MiddletonSimilar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 17
OPP 18
+35
52.5%
Justin Manton 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
52.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 13 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
54.3%
Simms McElfresh run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+20
52.3%
Marcus Cox run for 20 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
57.1%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-1
57.0%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 43Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
56.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
52.4%
Taylor Lamb punt for 22 yds, downed at the LaMon 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
49.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Centarius Donald for 13 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
48.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by Ronald BlairSimilar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
48.7%
Centarius Donald run for 11 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
46.3%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
46.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tyler CainSimilar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-4
47.0%
Pete Thomas sacked by Nathaniel Norwood and Deuce Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 43Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
51.0%
Justin Manton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0051% → 53%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
51.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+27
50.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 27 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
55.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 4 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
55.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 4 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 2
OPP 47
-2
55.4%
Bobo Beathard run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
52.5%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2854% → 51%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
45.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 9Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+6
46.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 6 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
47.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 15
-15
48.9%
Justin Manton punt for 60 yds , Bobo Beathard returns for a loss of 15 yards to the AppSt 0 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (5 Yards) to the AppSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 46%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
49.5%
Terrence Upshaw run for 4 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+1
49.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd to the AppSt 10Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 5
OWN 10
-5
47.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 5Similar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 10
OWN 5
0
46.4%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 47 yds, downed at the LaMon 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
39.8%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 8
50
0
39.3%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Centarius DonaldSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 8
50
+5
40.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Centarius Donald for 5 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
42.4%
Justin Manton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 5:0049% → 87%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
48.5%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+1
49.3%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 20Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+2
47.3%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
48.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi Jones, broken up by Cody RobinsonSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+27
48.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 27 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
54.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 22 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
56.9%
Ricky Fergerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+9
56.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 9 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
54.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
51.9%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the LaMon 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
56.9%
Marcus Cox run for 11 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.7%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23TD
16 plays · 72 yds · 4:2228% → 71%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
72.4%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
73.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyrone Carter for 12 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
70.6%
Pete Thomas run for 1 yd to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+17
71.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 17 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
67.4%
Thomas, Pete pass incomplete to Holley, Ajalen, PENALTY APP pass interference (Gibbs, Latrell) 15 yards to the APP27, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
64.9%
Centarius Donald run for 6 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
64.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Centarius Donald for 5 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
64.9%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
64.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
66.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+8
69.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 8 yds to the AppSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
64.9%
Centarius Donald run for no gain to the AppSt 3Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
64.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Centarius DonaldSimilar
Q4 6:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q4 1:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 1:1346% → 91%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 7 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
50.2%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Jones, Malachi, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Pipkins, Lenzy) 15 yards to the APP47, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
51.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 12 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
53.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+11
52.7%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Jones, Malachi (Caldwell, Trey), PENALTY ULM pass interference (Caldwell, Trey) 11 yards to the ULM22, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
52.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
52.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
49.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Marcus CoxSimilar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
91.4%
Bentlee Critcher 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
90.6%
Critcher, B. kickoff 42 yards to the ULM23, Johnson, Alex return to the ULM23, Holley, Ajalen for loss of 40 yards to the ULM25 (Sombo, Osvaldo), PENALTY APP illegal formation 5 yards to the APP30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0026% → 21%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-10
75.2%
Thomas, Pete pass complete to Cain, Tyler for 13 yards to the APP47 (Middleton, Doug), PENALTY ULM holding (Mitchell, Colby) 10 yards to the ULM30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 20
OWN 30
0
78.6%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:29
Bentlee Critcher 39 yd FG GOOD
+47.6
TD · Q4 1:42
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-37.5
TD · Q4 6:10
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
+29.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com