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TXST

Texas State 37 at New Mexico State 29

NMSU
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+10.5NMSU 13.4%Tyler Rogers pass complete to TeldrickMorgan for 21 yds for a TD, (TylerRogers pass to Gregory Hogan forTwo-Point Conversion)AWAY 37 - HOME 29 · Q4 2:35
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:35 · Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rogers pass to Gregory Hogan for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 206Home team on offense−20.9Pregame prior−1.3Score differential−10.3Garbage-time factor−11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:30: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 2 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +12.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:39: Terrence Franks run for 14 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +8.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:27: Larry Rose III run for 13 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:52: Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 23 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +9.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:35: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rogers pass to Gregory Hogan for Two-Point Conversion) — NMSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:44TXST 4th & 4 at NMSU 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.8%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04TXST 4th & 2 at NMSU 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 7 at TXST 45, down 10
    Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:31TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:07NMSU 4th & 10 at TXST 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:07TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 40, up 10
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:23NMSU 4th & 9 at TXST 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:23TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:52TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:04NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:11TXST 4th & 1 at NMSU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−3.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:44NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:27NMSU 4th & 1 at TXST 13, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−1.8
    85% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−7.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:58TXST 4th & 11 at NMSU 26, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−3.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:58NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 27, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:23TXST 4th & 7 at NMSU 46, up 16
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    92.5%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:16NMSU 4th & 6 at TXST 13, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−4.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:57NMSU 4th & 17 at TXST 17, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−2.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:22TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 23, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:00TXST 4th & 5 at NMSU 42, up 8
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:55NMSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:04TXST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:25TXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:30NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:39TXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:27NMSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:52TXST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:35NMSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
22.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-3
22.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+17
22.9%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 32 yds NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0977% → 76%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
23.3%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
23.3%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+8
23.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 8 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
23.3%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
23.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+6
23.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 6 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
24.2%
Will Johnson 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4924% → 25%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
24.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-1
24.2%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+86
25.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 86 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:4775% → 74%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
25.2%
Tyler Jones run for 9 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
25.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
25.0%
Terrence Franks run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
24.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
25.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
25.0%
Randy Price run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+10
24.8%
Terrence Franks run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
24.8%
Terrence Franks run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-1
24.8%
Terrence Franks run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+5
25.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 5 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+14
25.9%
Robert Lowe run for 14 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5INT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.1%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
26.1%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
26.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 2 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
26.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+9
26.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
26.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 6 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-3
26.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+22
26.7%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Germod Williams return for 22 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:2674% → 76%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
26.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 8 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+17
26.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 17 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
26.1%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+5
26.1%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+5
26.4%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
26.1%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
23.8%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 2:2524% → 24%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.7%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
23.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
23.7%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
24.1%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+8
24.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Dean for 8 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
24.3%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
24.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam ShapiroSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
24.8%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+1
24.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 1 yd to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
23.9%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
24.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 1 yd to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-10
24.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 19
OWN 11
0
24.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley Miller, broken up by Chris AcostaSimilar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 19
OWN 11
+9
25.2%
Tyler Jones run for 9 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
25.4%
Will Johnson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:0624% → 24%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
24.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+24
24.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 24 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
25.5%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
25.5%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
25.5%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+5
25.5%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-4
24.8%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
23.7%
Maxwell Johnson 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
25.0%
Jafus Gaines run for 12 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
24.6%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
24.6%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+2
24.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
24.9%
Will Johnson punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11MISSED FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:3123% → 23%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+47
23.1%
Larry Rose III run for 47 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
25.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Adam Shapiro) to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+7
24.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 7 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+7
25.0%
Xavier Hall run for 7 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 6
OPP 27
-3
24.6%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
23.2%
Maxwell Johnson 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
23.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+6
23.8%
Jafus Gaines run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
23.4%
Terrence Franks run for 7 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
22.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun Mercer, broken up by Adaryan JonesSimilar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+3
23.6%
Will Johnson punt for 42 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:1723% → 39%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
23.0%
Larry Rose III run for 23 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
24.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 11 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
24.9%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+9
25.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 9 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
25.8%
Brandon Betancourt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
25.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 3 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+5
24.8%
Brandon Betancourt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
26.4%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+8
26.4%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 2 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.2%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
31.5%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 14
OWN 24
-5
32.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (Ryan Melton) to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 19
OWN 19
0
32.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Lawrence WhiteSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 19
OWN 19
+17
33.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 17 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
32.6%
Will Johnson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Gregory Hogan at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
33.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 1 yd to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
33.2%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-5
32.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Thomas McGwire) to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+3
32.0%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
31.5%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 28 yds, downed at the NMxSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:3269% → 81%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
30.6%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 48 Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by TexSt Tyler JonesSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+13
32.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 13 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
30.6%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
32.5%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
30.6%
Randy Price run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+15
29.4%
Terrence Franks run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
19.2%
Terrence Franks run for 14 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT TD
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5520% → 13%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
20.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Adam Shapiro) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
20.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph MatthewsSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
19.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel BrownSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+9
19.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
13.2%
Kelly Kingseed punt blocked by blocked by Terrence Franks return for 10 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1714% → 23%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
13.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
14.2%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
14.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+35
14.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 35 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
15.8%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
15.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+7
15.2%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+13
23.3%
Larry Rose III run for 13 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:2979% → 92%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
21.4%
Randy Price run for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
20.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, PS (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
21.8%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
21.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+7
21.4%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
20.7%
Randy Price run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
19.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 9 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
18.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+10
18.6%
Robert Lowe run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
17.7%
Randy Price run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+4
17.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Randy Price for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
17.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+23
8.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 23 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21INT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Andrew Dean, broken up by Kris PetersenSimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
10.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph MatthewsSimilar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
10.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
11.4%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
12.1%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
12.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 19 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
12.9%
Brandon Betancourt run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-5
12.9%
Rogers, Tyler pass complete to Matthews, Josep for loss of 65 yards to the NMSU2, PENALTY NMSU ineligible downfield on pass (Candelaria, D.) 5 yards to the TXST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+2
12.1%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
12.1%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Craig Mager return for no gain to the TexSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22MISSED FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:1593% → 93%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
7.4%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+43
7.3%
Tyler Jones run for 43 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
6.4%
Randy Price run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
6.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+11
6.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 11 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
6.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Adrian Bellard) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
0
6.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Terrence FranksSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 35
0
6.4%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+9
6.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 9 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
6.7%
Will Johnson 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
9.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Isaiah Folasa-Lutui) to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+6
8.9%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+2
8.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 2 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+3
8.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
8.8%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
5.6%
Tyler Jones run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
5.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
5.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
5.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
5.9%
Will Johnson punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Gregory Hogan at the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25DOWNS
16 plays · 63 yds · 4:196% → 4%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
5.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 15 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
5.9%
Larry Rose III run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
6.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 9
50
0
6.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph MatthewsSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 9
50
+21
6.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 21 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
7.2%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
7.2%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+4
7.1%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
7.2%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+9
6.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 9 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 3
OPP 10
-3
7.1%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 13Similar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+10
6.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 10 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
7.2%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel Brown, broken up by Craig MagerSimilar
Q4 5:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-11
5.1%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSt 17 Tyler Rogers fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Adam ShapiroSimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
0
4.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2896% → 98%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
3.9%
Terrence Franks run for 4 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
3.9%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
2.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley Miller, broken up by Jaden WrightSimilar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
2.2%
Will Johnson punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Gregory Hogan at the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:383% → 13%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
2.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 13 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
2.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 8 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
2.9%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
2.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 19 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
3.1%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
3.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+7
2.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
13.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rogers pass to Gregory Hogan for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:3595% → 97%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
4.7%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+3
4.8%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+3
3.3%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
3.2%
Will Johnson punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29END OF GAME
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:464% → 6%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
3.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
4.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 7 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
4.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
4.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 4 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+7
4.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
4.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 15 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
5.4%
Clock 00:07, TEAM pass incomplete, PENALTY TXST substitution infraction 5 yards to the TXST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 5
OPP 36
0
6.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:30
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 2 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)
+12.7
TD · Q4 2:35
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rogers pass to Gregory Hogan for Two-Point Conversion)
+10.5
TD · Q3 2:52
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 23 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com