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TXST

Texas State 22 at UL Monroe 18

ULM
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDSAFETYTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Will Johnson punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Pregame prior+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:47: Justin Manton 43 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +3.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:00: Centarius Donald run for 6 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK) — ULM win probability +7.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:49: Robert Lowe run for 15 yds for a TD UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside (NA) declined, (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +9.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:50: Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 40 yds for a TD, (Two pt rush, Tyler Jones GOOD) — TXST win probability +24.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:29: Robert Lowe run for 21 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +43.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 9 of 11TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37ULM 4th & 17 at TXST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:37TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 31, down 3
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:22TXST 4th & 10 at ULM 38, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:47ULM 4th & 11 at TXST 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:47TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:00TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:52ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 37, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:40TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:02ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 47, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.6%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ULM 4th & 6 at TXST 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:21ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 35, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−2.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:22TXST 4th & 1 at ULM 28, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−2.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−7.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:06ULM 4th & 6 at TXST 11, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−10.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:57TXST 4th & 2 at ULM 12, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−1.0
    86% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−6.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:20ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 37, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:50TXST 4th & 5 at ULM 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:50ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−5.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:29ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.2%−5.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:51ULM 4th & 1 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.8%−13.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:06TXST 4th & 4 at ULM 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 5:00ULM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:49TXST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:50TXST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    21.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:29TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.5%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
53.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 13 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
53.5%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 49 TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal forward pass (Tyler Jones) to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+6
53.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 6 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-9
53.5%
Tyler Jones sacked by Hunter Kissinger for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
53.5%
Will Johnson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:2554% → 55%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
53.7%
Centarius Donald run for 19 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
53.8%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+21
53.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 21 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
54.0%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+2
54.0%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+4
54.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (4 Yards) to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
54.0%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
54.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Centarius DonaldSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
54.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 15
OPP 32
-8
53.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaMon Pete ThomasSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 23
OPP 40
+6
53.8%
Centarius Donald run for 6 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 17
OPP 34
+51
54.5%
Justin Manton 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
55.0%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+2
55.0%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+5
55.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 5 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
55.2%
Will Johnson punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
55.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 6 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+8
55.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 8 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
55.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 4 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
55.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 5 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+6
55.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 6 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
56.1%
Pete Thomas sacked by Michael Odiari for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 13
50
+5
55.6%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
55.8%
Pete Thomas pass intercepted David Mims return for no gain to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:3544% → 44%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
55.7%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 42 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 16
OWN 32
+10
56.3%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+9
55.2%
Tyler Jones run for 9 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
55.0%
Robert Lowe run for 11 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
55.0%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
55.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-2
55.2%
Tyler Jones sacked by Lorenzo Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+57
56.4%
Will Johnson 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6FG
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:3556% → 61%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
56.0%
PENALTY ULM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY TXST unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
56.7%
Tyler Cain run for 9 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
57.5%
Tyler Cain run for no gain to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
57.0%
Tyler Cain run for 4 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
57.7%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Tyler Cain for 3 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+9
57.7%
Tyler Cain run for 9 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
57.8%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Tyler Cain for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+14
57.1%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 14 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
58.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaMon Brayle BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+1
58.0%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
57.3%
Brayle Brown pass incomplete, broken up by Trey McgowanSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
61.0%
Justin Manton 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
59.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 5 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
59.8%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-5
60.6%
C.J. Best run for 5 yds to the TexSt 26 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Ben Ijah) to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
60.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for no gain to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 9
OWN 16
+4
61.3%
Will Johnson punt for 64 yds , Trey Caldwell returns for 4 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:3363% → 75%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
62.7%
Centarius Donald run for 9 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-4
63.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+28
62.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 28 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
64.4%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+4
64.3%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+18
63.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 18 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
64.6%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
64.6%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+9
65.9%
Pete Thomas run for 9 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
66.7%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.6%
Centarius Donald run for 6 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
71.1%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-4
71.0%
Tyler Jones sacked by Lorenzo Jackson and Ray Stovall for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
72.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
72.6%
Will Johnson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
73.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 5 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
74.0%
Tyler Cain run for 4 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
73.8%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
73.1%
Justin Manton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0426% → 25%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
73.6%
Tyler Jones sacked by Cody Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+7
73.9%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-1
73.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+45
75.0%
Will Johnson punt for 45 yds , Rashon Ceaser returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:2875% → 76%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
75.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 7 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
75.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
75.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 3 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
75.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 6 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+22
75.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 22 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
78.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 6 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
79.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 7 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
79.1%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
79.3%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
79.1%
Tyler Cain run for 4 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
78.6%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
77.6%
Justin Manton punt for 41 yds, downed at the TexSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14SF
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:5321% → 18%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
78.6%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 5Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+5
78.8%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 4
OWN 10
-10
81.9%
Tyler Jones sacked by Michael Johnson for a loss of 10 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
83.7%
Pete Thomas run for 5 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-5
83.9%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the LaMon 49 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (Chase Regian) to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
83.6%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-8
83.2%
Pete Thomas sacked by David Mayo for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 35Similar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+5
81.8%
Justin Manton punt for 48 yds , Craig Mager returns for 5 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:3317% → 30%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+27
82.6%
C.J. Best run for 27 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
80.8%
Terrence Franks run for 14 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
80.6%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-1
80.0%
Terrence Franks run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+8
81.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 8 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+3
80.7%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
79.2%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+9
79.2%
C.J. Best run for 9 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
70.3%
Robert Lowe run for 15 yds for a TD UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside (NA) declined, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 4:4378% → 84%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
78.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 13 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
79.8%
Pete Thomas run for 4 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
80.2%
Tyler Cain run for 5 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
79.5%
Pete Thomas run for 5 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
80.5%
Cain, Tyler rush right for loss of 7 yards to the ULM45 (Mims,David;Mayo,David), PENALTY ULM holding (Regian, Chase) 10 yards to the ULM42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+7
79.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 7 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+4
79.5%
Tyler Cain run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-5
79.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 48Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+37
78.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 37 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
80.9%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
80.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
79.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
83.6%
Justin Manton 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:0917% → 15%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.5%
Tyler Jones run for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
82.2%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
81.3%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+28
82.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 28 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
79.4%
Terrence Franks run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+10
79.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 10 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
80.4%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
79.0%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
79.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus Gaines, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+5
84.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 5 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
84.9%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the LaMon 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
88.2%
Pete Thomas run for 1 yd to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+15
88.1%
Thomas, Pete deep out pass incomplete to Ceaser, Rashon, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Shaw,Aaron) 15 yards to the ULM28, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
88.5%
Pete Thomas run for 7 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
88.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by Craig MagerSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
88.0%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
87.9%
Justin Manton punt for 39 yds, downed at the TexSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:0810% → 35%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
90.3%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-1
89.1%
Terrence Franks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+5
90.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 5 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+21
90.0%
C.J. Best run for 21 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
87.8%
McDowell,B deep pass complete to Price,Randy for 29 yards to the ULM16 (Pipkins, Lenzy), PENALTY TXST holding (Sarabia,B) 10 yards to the TXST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+8
89.6%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 12
OPP 47
0
88.6%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+7
89.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 7 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+40
65.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 40 yds for a TD, (Two pt rush, Tyler Jones GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0073% → 70%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
73.0%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
72.7%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
71.2%
Pete Thomas run for no gain to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
70.0%
Justin Manton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 2:0133% → 83%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
66.9%
C.J. Best run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+10
67.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 10 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
63.3%
C.J. Best run for 23 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
60.5%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+21
17.4%
Robert Lowe run for 21 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 22 yds · 1:3833% → 28%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
33.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
31.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+8
30.2%
Pete Thomas run for 8 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+5
31.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 5 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
36.2%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
34.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 8 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
36.6%
Pete Thomas run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 1
50
0
28.2%
Centarius Donald run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4092% → 94%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
50
+1
8.3%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
8.4%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
5.6%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
5.6%
Will Johnson punt for 30 yds, downed at the LaMon 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:29
Robert Lowe run for 21 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)
-43
TD · Q4 6:50
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 40 yds for a TD, (Two pt rush, Tyler Jones GOOD)
-24.2
TD · Q3 5:49
Robert Lowe run for 15 yds for a TD UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside (NA) declined, (Will Johnson KICK)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com