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NMSU

New Mexico State 17 at Idaho 29

IDHO
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Kibbie Dome
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Win probability · IDHO
modelIDHO aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIDHO scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:04 · Elijhaa Penny run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Home team on offense+6.9Pregame prior+6.5Garbage-time factor+1.6Score differential+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:24: Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 49 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +4.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:12: Maxwell Johnson 23 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:16: Austin Rehkow 33 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +6.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:11: Larry Rose III run for 33 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +19.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:31: Jerrel Brown run for 14 yds for a TD, (Richard Montgomery failed ) — IDHO win probability +12.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IDHO made the numbers' call on 4 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:00IDHO 4th & 11 at IDHO 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:58NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:24NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:18IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:05NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:12NMSU 4th & 6 at IDHO 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:04IDHO 4th & 1 at NMSU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−2.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:14IDHO 4th & 4 at NMSU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%−1.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:15IDHO 4th & 1 at NMSU 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    77.6%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−10.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:16IDHO 4th & 4 at NMSU 16, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:05IDHO 4th & 4 at NMSU 41, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−2.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IDHO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:20IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:06NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:24IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:11NMSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IDHODrive 1TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:4062% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
62.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 6 yds to the Idaho 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+20
62.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 20 yds to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
62.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
62.3%
Richard Montgomery run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
62.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 9 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
62.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+19
62.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 19 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-20
62.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for a loss of 20 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 28
+12
62.3%
Matt Linehan run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+8
62.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Kawe Johnson) to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
62.3%
Chad Chalich run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.4%
Richard Montgomery run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK), (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 1:1036% → 38%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
63.7%
Andrew Allen run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+6
63.8%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+79
62.3%
Larry Rose III run for 79 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK), (Maxwell Johnson KICK), (Maxwell Johnson KICK), (Maxwell Johnson KICK), (Maxwell Johnson KICK), (Maxwell Johnson KICK), (Maxwell Johnson KICK), (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
62.1%
Jerrel Brown run for 2 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
62.0%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Deon Watson for 9 yds to the Idaho 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
62.1%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
62.1%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 30Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
61.7%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Deon WatsonSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+6
61.6%
Austin Rehkow punt for 39 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for 6 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
61.5%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
61.4%
Andrew Allen run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+3
61.3%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+14
61.6%
Steven Witkowski punt for 52 yds , David Ungerer returns for 14 yds to the Idaho 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
61.8%
Richard Montgomery run for 9 yds to the Idaho 29 Richard Montgomery fumbled, forced by Rodney Butler, recovered by NMxSt Lewis HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
60.3%
Teldrick Morgan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 31Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-10
60.4%
Andrew Allen sacked by Quinton Bradley for a loss of 10 yards to the Idaho 41 Andrew Allen fumbled, recovered by Idaho Maxx Forde , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 7TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:5862% → 67%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
62.4%
Chad Chalich run for 8 yds to the Idaho 49Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+2
62.8%
Chad Chalich run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
67.0%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 49 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.8%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
65.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
66.0%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+4
66.4%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+2
66.5%
Steven Witkowski punt for 38 yds , David Ungerer returns for 2 yds to the Idaho 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4067% → 67%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
66.8%
Aaron Duckworth run for no gain to the Idaho 38Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
66.6%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Justin PodrabskySimilar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+7
67.1%
Chad Chalich run for 7 yds to the Idaho 45Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
67.0%
Austin Rehkow punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3133% → 32%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
67.4%
Andrew Allen run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
67.7%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+1
68.1%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+2
68.4%
Steven Witkowski punt for 53 yds , David Ungerer returns for 2 yds to the Idaho 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11INT
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:2269% → 69%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
69.0%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
68.6%
Jerrel Brown run for 3 yds to the Idaho 48Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+20
68.4%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 20 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
69.4%
Elijhaa Penny run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+8
69.4%
Chad Chalich run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
69.4%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
69.4%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+8
68.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (8 Yards) to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
69.4%
Chad Chalich run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
69.4%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Deon Watson, broken up by Jerrion BurtonSimilar
Q2 10:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
69.3%
Chad Chalich pass intercepted Winston Rose return for no gain to the NMxSt 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
68.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 8 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-1
67.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-2
68.1%
Andrew Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+3
69.3%
Steven Witkowski punt for 37 yds , David Ungerer returns for 3 yds to the Idaho 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 13FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:4371% → 73%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
70.9%
Jerrel Brown run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
71.3%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 11 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
71.4%
Jerrel Brown run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
71.4%
Jerrel Brown run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
71.1%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 2 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
72.5%
Austin Rehkow 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:0828% → 32%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+53
72.1%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 53 yds to the Idaho 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
68.8%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
69.3%
Brandon Betancourt run for 4 yds to the Idaho 21Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+2
69.6%
Andrew Allen run for 2 yds to the Idaho 19Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+9
71.6%
Johnson, M field goal attempt from 38 GOOD, clock 03:45, PENALTY IDAHO roughing holder (Quinton Bradley) 9 yards to the IDAHO10, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
69.6%
Brandon Betancourt run for 8 yds to the Idaho 2Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
69.6%
Brandon Betancourt run for 1 yd to the Idaho 1Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
70.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Idaho 6Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
70.5%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Brandon Betancourt for 5 yds to the Idaho 1Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
71.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (NA) to the Idaho 6Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
68.5%
Maxwell Johnson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 15FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 2:0072% → 76%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
72.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
50
0
72.4%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Justin PodrabskySimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
50
+4
72.0%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+5
71.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+5
70.8%
Elijhaa Penny run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
72.6%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 23 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
72.7%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-10
75.4%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 8 yards to the NMSU2 (Hill, Lewis), PENALTY IDAHO holding (Jordan Rose) 10 yards to the NMSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 17
OPP 20
+7
75.2%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 7 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+30
76.3%
Austin Rehkow 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
74.3%
Andrew Allen run for 27 yds to the Idaho 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
72.1%
Andrew Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
73.4%
Andrew Allen run for no gain to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
74.2%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete, broken up by Quayshawne BuckleySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
75.2%
Steven Witkowski punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Idaho 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 17DOWNS
17 plays · 90 yds · 7:5976% → 83%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
76.0%
Chad Chalich run for 9 yds to the Idaho 18Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+7
76.4%
Jerrel Brown run for 7 yds to the Idaho 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.4%
Jerrel Brown run for 6 yds to the Idaho 31Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
76.8%
Jerrel Brown run for 10 yds to the Idaho 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
77.6%
Richard Montgomery run for 6 yds to the Idaho 47Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
77.7%
Jerrel Brown run for 2 yds to the Idaho 49Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
76.8%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
77.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-7
77.9%
Chad Chalich run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+6
76.6%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for 6 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+22
75.9%
Chad Chalich run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
78.1%
Jerrel Brown run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
78.1%
Jerrel Brown run for no gain to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
78.1%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Justin PodrabskySimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
77.2%
Chad Chalich run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.7%
Elijhaa Penny run for no gain to the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18INT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
83.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 4 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+3
83.2%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+4
83.8%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 4 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
82.3%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
82.4%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+14
83.1%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 14 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
82.0%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-1
82.2%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+9
82.8%
Andrew Allen pass intercepted Bradley Njoku return for 9 yds to the Idaho 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 19FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:0684% → 93%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
84.3%
IDAHO Penalty, delay of game (NA) to the Idaho 44Similar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+13
83.8%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 13 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+8
84.5%
Jerrel Brown run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
84.8%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
84.7%
Jerrel Brown run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+8
84.8%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 8 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.8%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
84.7%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 1 yd to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+5
86.3%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 5 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
93.2%
Austin Rehkow 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 1:589% → 30%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
90.9%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+5
90.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 5 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
90.5%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+18
90.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 18 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
89.4%
Rogers, Tyler pass incomplete to Bowen, Joshua, PENALTY IDAHO pass interference (Joe Smith) 8 yards to the IDAHO37, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
89.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 4 yds to the Idaho 33Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+33
70.2%
Larry Rose III run for 33 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
80.2%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
80.0%
Jerrel Brown run for 5 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+15
79.3%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Deon Watson for 15 yds to the Idaho 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
82.3%
Jerrel Brown run for 3 yds to the Idaho 44Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+9
82.5%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Deon Watson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
82.9%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 6 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
83.0%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
82.1%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Jacob SannonSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
80.5%
Austin Rehkow punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
80.6%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+7
81.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 4
OWN 11
-5
81.7%
Rogers, Tyler pass incomplete (Maxx Forde), PENALTY NMSU false start 5 yards to the NMSU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 6
-3
82.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Abram Holland) to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 12
OWN 3
0
82.1%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Jayshawn Jordan return for no gain to the NMxSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 23TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
95.0%
Jerrel Brown run for 14 yds for a TD, (Richard Montgomery failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
93.5%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Jayshawn Jordan return for a loss of 5 yards to the Idaho 29 IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (Quayshawne Buckley) to the Idaho 45Similar
Q4 7:31
1ST & -8
OWN 31
+3
93.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 25END OF GAME
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:5196% → 98%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
95.8%
Jerrel Brown run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
95.8%
Jerrel Brown run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
95.8%
Jerrel Brown run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
95.9%
Jerrel Brown run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+7
97.7%
Chad Chalich run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
97.8%
Jerrel Brown run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+8
97.8%
Chad Chalich run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
97.8%
Jerrel Brown run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 2
OPP 11
-1
97.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:11
Larry Rose III run for 33 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)
-19.2
TD · Q4 7:31
Jerrel Brown run for 14 yds for a TD, (Richard Montgomery failed )
+12.9
FG · Q4 14:16
Austin Rehkow 33 yd FG GOOD
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com