Try the model
APP

App State 53 at Troy 14

TROY
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:04 · Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Simms McElfresh at the AppSt 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior+10.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q1 2:08: Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 4 yards Brandon Silvers fumbled, forced by Osvaldo Sombo, recovered by AppSt Olawale Dada , return for 20 yds, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +5.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:56: Marcus Cox run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +14.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:44: Bentlee Critcher kickoff for 64 yds , Chandler Worthy return for 99 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +14.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:41: Marcus Cox run for 33 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +18.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:40: Taylor Lamb run for 16 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +9.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 8 at APP 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    67.0%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:04TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:58APP 4th & 10 at TROY 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:44APP 4th & 9 at APP 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:25TROY 4th & 3 at APP 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    46.8%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 4 at TROY 35, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−1.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:41TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 40, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:35APP 4th & 3 at TROY 35, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 15 at APP 36, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:35TROY 4th & 1 at APP 27, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:22TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 49, down 39
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:58APP 4th & 2 at APP 24, up 39
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:23TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:04APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:56APP Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:44TROY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:41APP Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:40APP Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:22APP Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 5:3762% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
62.2%
Brandon Burks run for 22 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
62.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 9 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
62.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 5 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
62.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-5
62.2%
Chandler Worthy run for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+4
62.2%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+10
62.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Trey Page for 10 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
62.2%
Brandon Silvers run for no gain to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
62.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 2 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+12
62.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kennan Gilchrist) to the AppSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
62.2%
Silvers, B. screen pass incomplete to Edenfield, K.D. (Ross, Joel), PENALTY APP personal foul (Ross, Joel) 6 yards to the APP5, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
62.2%
TROY Penalty, false start (Dalton Bennett) to the AppSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
62.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 5 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
62.2%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the AppSt 5Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.5%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 0:1936% → 39%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
63.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, sideline interference (NA) to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
61.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 59 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
62.1%
Brandon Silvers run for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
62.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 2 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
62.4%
Khary Franklin run for 1 yd to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
62.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Kinderick DentSimilar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
61.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Simms McElfresh at the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:2638% → 40%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
61.6%
Terrence Upshaw run for 6 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+13
61.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 13 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
61.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 36Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+12
61.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 12 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+14
61.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Terrence Upshaw for 14 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
60.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 18 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
60.6%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 15
OPP 25
0
61.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for a loss of 1 yard Barrett Burns fumbled, forced by JaQuadrian Lewis, recovered by AppSt Marcus Cox , return for no gain to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 20
OPP 30
+10
61.4%
Marcus Cox run for 10 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
60.2%
Bentlee Critcher 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:5060% → 55%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
54.7%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 4 yards Brandon Silvers fumbled, forced by Osvaldo Sombo, recovered by AppSt Olawale Dada , return for 20 yds, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0855% → 53%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
54.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 4 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
54.4%
Chandler Worthy run for 7 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
55.0%
Brandon Silvers run for no gain to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
54.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+5
54.4%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
53.0%
Ryan Kay punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 4:5846% → 64%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
54.0%
Isaiah Lewis run for 2 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
54.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for 5 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+10
54.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 10 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
53.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Tacoi Sumler for 2 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+23
53.6%
Terrence Upshaw run for 23 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
53.0%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+10
52.9%
Lamb, Taylor deep pass incomplete to McElfresh, S., PENALTY TROY holding (Reddick, Darrin) 10 yards to the TROY29, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
52.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-4
50.6%
Cox, Marcus rush up middle for 25 yards to the TROY0, clock 11:32, PENALTY APP holding (Burns, Barrett) 4 yards to the TROY29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
50.8%
Ricky Fergerson run for 1 yd to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+5
51.2%
Lamb, Taylor deep pass incomplete to Meadors, S., PENALTY TROY offside defense (Peek, Garrett) 5 yards to the TROY23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+15
51.0%
Taylor Lamb run for 15 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
50.6%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.0%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
49.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-10
49.6%
Upshaw, T. rush right for loss of 1 yard to the APP40 (Young, Jacquez), PENALTY APP illegal block 10 yards to the APP31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 17
OWN 31
0
51.0%
Taylor Lamb run for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+8
51.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 8 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+9
51.4%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 40 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 9 yds to the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:4347% → 45%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-14
46.8%
TROY Penalty, personal foul (NA) to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+27
46.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 27 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
47.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
47.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 3 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+12
47.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 12 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
48.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jalen Harris for 1 yd to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-10
48.7%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Tyson Fernandez and Doug Middleton for a loss of 10 yards to the AppSt 49Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 19
OPP 49
+16
46.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 16 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
44.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to K.D. Edenfield, broken up by A.J. HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11FUMBLE TD
17 plays · 66 yds · 3:2157% → 64%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
42.6%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+15
41.9%
Marcus Cox run for 15 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
41.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
41.7%
Marcus Cox run for 10 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
41.6%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
41.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Barrett BurnsSimilar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+14
42.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 14 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
41.2%
Isaiah Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+6
39.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 6 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 6
OPP 16
-5
39.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+13
38.8%
Terrence Upshaw run for 13 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
37.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Bobo BeathardSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
37.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Tacoi SumlerSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 0
OWN 8
0
35.9%
TEAM SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
36.2%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
36.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+3
36.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Tacoi Sumler for 3 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
37.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete, broken up by Billy DobbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
36.8%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (NA) to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+2
36.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
36.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+11
35.4%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Latrell Gibbs return for 11 yds to the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
16.6%
Marcus Cox run for 33 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
23.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
23.2%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
23.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 10 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
24.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-2
24.9%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
23.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
23.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 5:3385% → 98%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
15.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 7 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+7
15.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 7 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
14.6%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-6
14.7%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 45 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Graham Fisher) to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+15
12.5%
Taylor Lamb run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
50
+7
11.7%
Ricky Fergerson run for 7 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
11.5%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
11.7%
Ricky Fergerson run for 3 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
11.7%
Ricky Fergerson run for 8 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+8
11.4%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
11.4%
Simms McElfresh run for 6 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
1.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 16 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 8 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
3.0%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
3.0%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Latrell Gibbs return for 15 yds to the Troy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
1.4%
Ricky Fergerson run for 6 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+3
1.4%
Ricky Fergerson run for 3 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 1
OPP 33
-2
1.4%
Ricky Fergerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
1.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:312% → 2%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
1.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 8 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-8
2.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 2 yds to the Troy 45 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (Teddy Ruben) to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
1.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+34
1.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Trey Page for 34 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
2.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-9
2.3%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Devan Stringer for a loss of 9 yards to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+4
1.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 4 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 36
-9
1.7%
Brandon Silvers sacked by D.J. Ward for a loss of 9 yards to the AppSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
0.9%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Brandon Silvers) to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
0.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 16 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
0.9%
Marcus Cox run for 23 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.6%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
0.6%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 13 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
0.6%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 10 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, substitution infraction (NA) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
0.6%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 4 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-5
0.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (Kinderick Dent) to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+13
0.6%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Kinderick Dent for 13 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
0.6%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Trey Page, broken up by A.J. HowardSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
0.6%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Cameron Peterson for 9 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
0.7%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-2
0.6%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+68
0.5%
Ricky Fergerson run for 68 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.3%
Kameron Bryant run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
0.3%
Tim Longmire run for 6 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
0.3%
Tim Longmire run for 2 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
0.3%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Jalen HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
0.3%
Ryan Kay punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
0.5%
Ricky Fergerson run for 10 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
0.3%
Eric Davidson run for 3 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+3
0.3%
Ricky Fergerson run for 3 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+2
0.3%
Kameron Bryant run for 2 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
0.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 48 yds, downed at the Troy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 27FUMBLE
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
0.2%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 4 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+7
0.2%
Tim Longmire run for 7 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
0.2%
Longmire, Tim rush right for 3 yards to the TROY42 (Howard, A.J.;Boggs, Eric), PENALTY TROY illegal block (Page, Trey) 10 yards to the TROY29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+10
0.2%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Tim Longmire for 10 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
0.2%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Cameron Peterson for 9 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+7
0.2%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 7 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
0.2%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 15
50
+1
0.2%
Tim Longmire run for 1 yd to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+1
0.2%
Marquell Beckwith run for 1 yd to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+15
0.2%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Kinderick Dent for 15 yds Kinderick Dent fumbled, forced by Toronto Thomas, recovered by AppSt Jordan FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
0.1%
Eric Davidson run for 12 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
0.1%
Eric Davidson run for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:41
Marcus Cox run for 33 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
-18.8
TD · Q2 9:44
Bentlee Critcher kickoff for 64 yds , Chandler Worthy return for 99 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q2 9:56
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com