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NMSU

New Mexico State 24 at Troy 41

TROY
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Steven Witkowski punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense+3.6Pregame prior+12.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:35: Maxwell Johnson kickoff for 54 yds , Chandler Worthy return for 89 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +6.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:57: Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +10.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:28: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 30 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:18: Jordan Chunn run for 18 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +6.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:04: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 11 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:55NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:01TROY 4th & 7 at NMSU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:35NMSU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 10
    Close callPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:37TROY 4th & 5 at NMSU 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:19NMSU 4th & 5 at TROY 6, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:28TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 41, down 10
    Close callPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:54TROY 4th & 3 at NMSU 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:18TROY 4th & 2 at NMSU 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−0.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:03TROY 4th & 3 at NMSU 17, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:55TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:49NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:35TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:57TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:28NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:18TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:04NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:26TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 4:0566% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
66.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 10 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.2%
Bryan Holmes run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
66.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
66.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 13 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
66.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 3 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
66.2%
John Johnson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
50
+7
66.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
66.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 16 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
66.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 8 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+6
66.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 6 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
66.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 1 yd to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
67.6%
Brandon Silvers run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
67.1%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
67.1%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+1
67.2%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
67.3%
Steven Witkowski punt for 49 yds , Bryan Holmes returns for no gain to the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:0868% → 69%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
67.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for no gain to the Troy 22Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+53
67.7%
Brandon Burks run for 53 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
68.3%
Brandon Silvers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+5
68.3%
Khary Franklin run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
68.3%
Silvers, B. deep pass incomplete to Worthy, C., PENALTY TROY ineligible downfield on pass (Hutson, Ethan) 5 yards to the NMSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
68.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+4
68.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+28
68.7%
Ryan Kay 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4FUMBLE
12 plays · 37 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
68.3%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
68.2%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+20
68.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 20 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
67.8%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
67.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 8 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
67.6%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
67.1%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
67.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
67.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
67.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-9
67.7%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Jamal Stadom for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 42 Tyler Rogers fumbled, recovered by Troy Jamal Stadom , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
70.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
70.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 2
50
+9
70.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
70.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
70.6%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted, touchback. Winston Rose return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5030% → 29%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.1%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
70.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Steven Witkowski punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
71.2%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+2
70.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
70.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jordan ChunnSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+7
69.5%
Ryan Kay punt for 37 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 7 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:4329% → 36%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
70.8%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+10
70.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 10 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
64.3%
Larry Rose III run for 53 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
71.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 12 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
70.5%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
70.2%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 3
50
0
70.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 3
50
0
70.8%
Steven Witkowski punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FUMBLE
11 plays · 59 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
71.7%
Brandon Silvers run for 5 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+18
71.7%
Khary Franklin run for 18 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
72.0%
Khary Franklin run for 4 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
72.8%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
72.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 5 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
72.9%
Khary Franklin run for 2 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+8
72.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 8 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
73.1%
Khary Franklin run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
73.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+11
72.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 11 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
73.2%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 30 Jordan Chunn fumbled, forced by Rodney Butler, recovered by NMxSt Dalton HerringtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12INT
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
73.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+33
74.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 33 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
72.0%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+8
71.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 8 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
70.9%
Brandon Betancourt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+6
71.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 6 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-4
71.8%
Brandon Betancourt run for 8 yds to the Troy 16 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-12 Yards) to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
72.2%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted JaQuadrian Lewis return for no gain to the Troy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 2:0076% → 80%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
75.5%
Khary Franklin run for 4 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+8
75.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 8 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
75.8%
Brandon Burks run for 9 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+44
76.4%
Brandon Burks run for 44 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
77.5%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Drew James and JB Copeland for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+8
77.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 8 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-14
76.4%
TROY Penalty, personal foul (Antonio Garcia) to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 18
OPP 37
+13
75.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 13 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
80.2%
Ryan Kay 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
79.6%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 3:4120% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
80.3%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+24
80.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 24 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
79.4%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
79.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+8
79.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 8 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
78.1%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
78.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 4 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+10
79.1%
Brandon Betancourt run for 10 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
78.1%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
78.1%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
82.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
79.4%
Maxwell Johnson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:2281% → 93%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
80.5%
Chandler Worthy run for 8 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-10
81.5%
Burks, Brandon rush left for 10 yards to the TROY49 (Hill, Lewis), PENALTY TROY holding (Garcia, Antonio) 10 yards to the TROY29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+10
80.1%
Chandler Worthy run for 10 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+3
80.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
81.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 25 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
82.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 13 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
82.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 8 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+3
82.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
82.5%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
82.5%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:2910% → 20%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
90.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 7 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
89.7%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
89.9%
Xavier Hall run for 17 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
79.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 30 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
82.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 7 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+5
83.2%
Khary Franklin run for 5 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
83.3%
John Johnson run for 12 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
84.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for no gain to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
83.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 8 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
83.6%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
50
-4
84.4%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 46 Brandon Silvers fumbled, recovered by Troy Brandon SilversSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
83.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
82.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Brandon BurksSimilar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 14
OWN 46
+1
81.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 40 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:4015% → 14%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
84.7%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
84.6%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+15
85.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 15 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
83.9%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
85.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 7 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-1
85.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+15
86.4%
Steven Witkowski punt for 57 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 15 yds to the Troy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:5687% → 87%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
86.5%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 15Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+43
86.2%
Brandon Burks run for 43 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
87.9%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+4
87.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 4 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+5
87.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+2
87.2%
Chandler Worthy run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
86.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon Betancourt, broken up by Darrin ReddickSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
87.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+9
86.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-12
85.4%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Jamal Stadom for a loss of 12 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 22
OWN 36
+5
88.1%
Brandon Betancourt run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 17
OWN 41
-11
88.2%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Tyler Roberts for a loss of 11 yards to the NMxSt 26 Tyler Rogers fumbled, recovered by Troy Jamal Stadom , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:3291% → 97%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
91.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 5 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
91.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+1
90.7%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+18
97.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 18 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:144% → 11%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
96.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 7 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
96.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph Matthews, broken up by Femi OdaiboSimilar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+7
96.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 7 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
96.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 12 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
96.2%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Tyler Roberts for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+31
96.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 31 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
95.5%
Brandon Betancourt run for 3 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
89.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 11 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:3894% → 99%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.5%
Khary Franklin run for no gain to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
93.4%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+8
94.4%
Brandon Burks run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
94.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+35
98.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 35 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+24
99.2%
Larry Rose III pass intercepted Montres Kitchens return for 24 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
98.9%
Khary Franklin run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
98.9%
Khary Franklin run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+3
98.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+7
98.8%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:57
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q3 5:28
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 30 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 12:35
Maxwell Johnson kickoff for 54 yds , Chandler Worthy return for 89 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com