Try the model
LIB

Liberty 55 at App State 48

APP
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:54 · Bentlee Critcher punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 145Pregame prior+2.5Home team on offense−1.7Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Garbage-time factor−1.4Time remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:36: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 60 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +16.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:29: D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK) — LIB win probability +23.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:46: Terrence Upshaw run for 60 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Shaedon Meadors pass to Bobo Beathard GOOD), (Two pt pass, Taylor Lamb pass to Bobo Beathard GOOD) — APP win probability +39.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:19: Josh Woodrum run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK) — LIB win probability +32.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 9 yds for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK) — LIB win probability +17.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q2 14:44LIB 4th & 7 at LIB 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:50APP 4th & 7 at LIB 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:42APP 4th & 1 at APP 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:50LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:58APP 4th & 5 at LIB 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−5.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:45LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:04APP 4th & 3 at LIB 16, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−10.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:11LIB 4th & 10 at APP 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−9.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:29LIB 4th & 6 at APP 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−10.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:47APP 4th & 3 at LIB 21, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.7%−0.9
    74% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−10.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:54APP 4th & 5 at APP 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:57LIB 4th & 4 at APP 40, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%−4.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−3.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:46LIB 4th & 3 at APP 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−0.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−12.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:52APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:23LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:46LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:49APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:42LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:36APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:29LIB Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:46APP Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    70.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    70.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:19LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1TD
2 plays · 38 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
60.4%
Marcus Cox run for 38 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2940% → 41%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 9 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
60.3%
WOODRUM, J. sacked for loss of 6 yards to the LIBERTY28 (Blair, Ronald;Law, John), PENALTY APP face mask (Blair, Ronald) 15 yards to the LIBERTY49, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
60.3%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+16
60.3%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Gabe Henderson for 16 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
60.3%
Darrin Peterson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-10
60.3%
ABNAR, D.J. rush for 2 yards to the APP30 (Blair, Ronald;Howard, A.J.), PENALTY LIBERTY holding (HANSON, M.) 10 yards to the APP42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+5
60.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 5 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+22
60.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 22 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
60.3%
Stephon Masha run for 4 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
60.3%
D.J. Abnar run for 5 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
60.3%
Nicky Fualaau run for 2 yds to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
60.3%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 3 yds to the AppSt 1Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.3%
D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3FUMBLE
10 plays · 63 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.2%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+30
60.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 30 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
61.0%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
61.0%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the Liber 35Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+8
60.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 8 yds to the Liber 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
61.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 5 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+7
61.1%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the Liber 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
61.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 5 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-2
61.1%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 12 Marcus Cox fumbled, recovered by Liber Kenny ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 4:0440% → 48%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
60.0%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 8 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+5
59.8%
WOODRUM, J. pass complete to PETERSON, D. for 4 yards to the LIBERTY24 (Howard, A.J.), PENALTY APP offside (Lamb, Taylor) 5 yards to the LIBERTY25, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.9%
WOODRUM, J. pass complete to HENDERSON, G. for 4 yards to the LIBERTY29 (McGowan, B.), PENALTY APP offside (Dada, Olawale) 5 yards to the LIBERTY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+15
59.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Stephon Masha for 15 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
59.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
58.9%
Josh Woodrum run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 44 Josh Woodrum fumbled, recovered by Liber N/ASimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+5
59.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Gabe Henderson for 5 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+13
59.1%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dexter Herman for 13 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
58.5%
D.J. Abnar run for 2 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
52.3%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dexter Herman for 24 yds for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5754% → 61%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
54.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
53.7%
Taylor Lamb run for 9 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
60.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 63 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
59.1%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 25Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+5
59.2%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 5 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-1
59.5%
Josh Woodrum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 29Similar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
60.1%
Trey Turner punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4662% → 66%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
61.8%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
61.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
66.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 40 yds , Dakota Kelly returns for no gain for a TD Dakota Kelly fumbled, recovered by AppSt Aaron Krah for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
58.9%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 75 yds for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.2%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
60.1%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Dominique Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
59.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 10 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
59.4%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
58.5%
D.J. Abnar run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 15Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 13
OWN 15
0
58.7%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to D.J. AbnarSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+8
59.5%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 8 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
59.8%
Trey Turner punt for 56 yds, downed at the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:2260% → 49%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
60.3%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+1
60.8%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+6
59.7%
Taylor Lamb run for 6 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+39
49.1%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds Marcus Cox fumbled, forced by Jacob Hagen, recovered by Liber Kenny Scott , return for 39 yds, (John Lunsford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12INT
9 plays · 52 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
48.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 28 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
51.5%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
51.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+17
50.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 17 yds to the Liber 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
52.6%
Terrence Upshaw run for 5 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-5
52.6%
Taylor Lamb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 30 Taylor Lamb fumbled, recovered by AppSt Taylor Lamb , return for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+7
50.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Terrence Upshaw for 7 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+24
50.0%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted Tyrin Holloway return for 24 yds to the Liber 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1255% → 56%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
44.6%
Josh Woodrum run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 36 Josh Woodrum fumbled, recovered by Liber Josh Woodrum , return for no gain to the Liber 36Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+11
46.5%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Gabe Henderson for 11 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-2
44.8%
D.J. Abnar run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
43.9%
Trey Turner punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14FG
7 plays · 66 yds · 1:3347% → 53%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
46.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 7 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+52
47.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 52 yds to the Liber 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
52.0%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the Liber 19Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
52.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+3
50.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 3 yds to the Liber 16Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
53.2%
Bentlee Critcher 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
49.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 2:4950% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
50.0%
D.J. Abnar run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
50.3%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 7 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
50.3%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to D.J. Abnar for 13 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
48.0%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Dante ShellsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+41
48.5%
D.J. Abnar run for 41 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
46.3%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Darrin PetersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
46.3%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to D.J. AbnarSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
47.4%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Dexter Herman, broken up by Doug MiddletonSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
41.0%
John Lunsford 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3544% → 62%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 8 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
45.9%
Terrence Upshaw run for 7 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
62.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 60 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:0743% → 52%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
56.7%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 36 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
53.1%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Gabe HendersonSimilar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
53.2%
D.J. Abnar run for 2 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+15
52.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 15 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
50.0%
D.J. Abnar run for 2 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
50.0%
D.J. Abnar run for 2 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
51.6%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Darrin PetersonSimilar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
47.8%
John Lunsford 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4749% → 69%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
49.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
47.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 15 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
52.8%
Terrence Upshaw run for 11 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
68.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 48 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Stephon MashaSimilar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.1%
Josh Woodrum pass intercepted Doug Middleton return for no gain to the Liber 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21FG
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:4569% → 73%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
68.8%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+15
68.9%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Burns, Barrett, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference (HAGEN, J.) 15 yards to the LIBERTY28, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
70.0%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
69.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 7 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
68.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfresh, broken up by Jacob HagenSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
73.4%
Bentlee Critcher 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1827% → 56%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.2%
D.J. Abnar run for 4 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
72.3%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to D.J. Abnar, broken up by Joel RossSimilar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+24
73.7%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dexter Herman for 24 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
69.3%
D.J. Abnar run for 4 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
69.3%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+6
69.1%
D.J. Abnar run for 6 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
67.5%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 12 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+19
66.8%
D.J. Abnar run for 19 yds to the AppSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
66.9%
ABNAR, D.J. rush for loss of 1 yard to the APP4 (Sombo, Osvaldo), PENALTY APP offside (Ross, Joel) 2 yards to the APP1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.8%
D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:3551% → 52%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.9%
Terrence Upshaw run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
51.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Bobo BeathardSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
53.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
51.5%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3954% → 52%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
45.8%
Josh Woodrum run for 5 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
45.4%
D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 14:36
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
46.0%
Josh Woodrum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+57
48.3%
John Lunsford 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25TD
1 play · 60 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
87.5%
Terrence Upshaw run for 60 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Shaedon Meadors pass to Bobo Beathard GOOD), (Two pt pass, Taylor Lamb pass to Bobo Beathard GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2716% → 55%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.7%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Gabe HendersonSimilar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.9%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 15 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
82.1%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to D.J. Abnar for 7 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
80.8%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
50
+3
79.9%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+15
80.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Osvaldo Sombo) to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
78.1%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
77.6%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+1
79.4%
Josh Woodrum run for 1 yd to the AppSt 25Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+5
81.7%
D.J. Abnar run for 5 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
77.6%
D.J. Abnar run for 4 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
77.6%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
45.5%
Josh Woodrum run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27MISSED FG
18 plays · 60 yds · 6:1960% → 58%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
60.2%
Upshaw, T. rush for 25 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds (SCOTT, K.), PENALTY APP holding (Gossett, Colby) 1 yards to the APP24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 11
OWN 24
+5
60.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 5 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
60.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 6 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
60.9%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+7
64.6%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
65.0%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+8
65.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 8 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
65.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 6 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+6
68.3%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the Liber 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
68.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
68.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+12
63.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 12 yds to the Liber 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
66.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 14Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 13
OPP 14
-1
65.8%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 15Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+32
57.7%
Bentlee Critcher 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 28TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 77%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
40.5%
D.J. Abnar run for 5 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
40.5%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
42.7%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
40.5%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Nicky FualaauSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
40.5%
D.J. Abnar run for 5 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
22.6%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 9 yds for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 29INT
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
28.1%
Marcus Cox run for 16 yds to the Liber 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
28.1%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted, touchback. Jacob Hagen return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:46
Terrence Upshaw run for 60 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Shaedon Meadors pass to Bobo Beathard GOOD), (Two pt pass, Taylor Lamb pass to Bobo Beathard GOOD)
+39.2
TD · Q4 6:19
Josh Woodrum run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Lunsford KICK)
-32.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-28.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com