Try the model
IDHO

Idaho 30 at Texas State 35

TXST
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreIDHO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:32 · Austin Rehkow punt for 50 yds , Craig Mager returns for 7 yds to the TexSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+19.9Home team on offense+9.6Garbage-time factor+1.2Score differential+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:35: Elijhaa Penny run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Linehan failed ) — IDHO win probability +13.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:48: Terrence Franks run for 70 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +13.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:31: Aaron Duckworth run for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +15.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:25: Tyler Jones run for 27 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +12.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:00: Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +13.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7IDHO made the numbers' call on 13 of 13
  1. Q1 10:17IDHO 4th & 8 at TXST 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56IDHO 4th & 1 at TXST 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:00IDHO 4th & 7 at TXST 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:10IDHO 4th & 16 at IDHO 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:32IDHO 4th & 13 at IDHO 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:16TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 5, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:22IDHO 4th & 17 at TXST 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:22TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 40, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:22TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:32IDHO 4th & 13 at IDHO 13, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:46TXST 4th & 1 at IDHO 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 47, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:53IDHO 4th & 5 at IDHO 16, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:27IDHO 4th & 1 at TXST 16, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−1.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−6.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:07IDHO 4th & 5 at IDHO 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:39TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 10, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:25IDHO 4th & 1 at IDHO 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:25IDHO 4th & 1 at IDHO 44, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−1.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:00IDHO 4th & 1 at TXST 1, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−4.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:25TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 37, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5IDHO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:13TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:01TXST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:46TXST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:15IDHO Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:48TXST Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:31IDHO Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:25TXST Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:00IDHO Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IDHODrive 1FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:4316% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 14 yds to the Idaho 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
84.0%
Aaron Duckworth run for 5 yds to the Idaho 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+12
84.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 12 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
84.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
84.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 4 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+12
84.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Kristoffer Olugbode for 12 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
84.0%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 7 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
84.0%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 1 yd to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+5
84.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 5 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
84.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
84.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCain, broken up by Craig MagerSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
84.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCain IDAHO Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+29
82.3%
Austin Rehkow 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
82.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 7 yds Demun Mercer fumbled, forced by Marc Millan, recovered by Idaho Broc WestlakeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:5618% → 19%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
82.0%
Matt Linehan run for 5 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
82.0%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 4 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
82.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Justin PodrabskySimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+6
82.2%
Elijhaa Penny run for 6 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
81.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 7 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 3
OPP 19
0
81.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-4
81.1%
Matt Linehan sacked by Dallas McClarty for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
81.1%
Austin Rehkow 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0081% → 82%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
81.2%
Tyler Jones run for 14 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
81.4%
C.J. Best run for 7 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+2
81.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
81.6%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
81.8%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the Idaho 48Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
81.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 5 yds to the Idaho 43Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
81.8%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Russell Siavii return for no gain to the Idaho 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
80.1%
Matt Linehan sacked by Craig Mager for a loss of 8 yards to the Idaho 32Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 18
OWN 32
+7
80.6%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 7 yds to the Idaho 39Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-5
80.5%
Matt Linehan sacked by Michael Odiari for a loss of 5 yards to the Idaho 34Similar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
80.9%
Austin Rehkow punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
81.8%
Terrence Franks run for 70 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 7INT
17 plays · 66 yds · 3:1818% → 19%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.1%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Justin PodrabskySimilar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.1%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Stephan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 12 yds to the Idaho 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
82.3%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 12 yds to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
81.9%
Matt Linehan sacked by Craig Mager for a loss of 8 yards to the Idaho 41Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+7
82.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 7 yds to the Idaho 48Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+25
82.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Kristoffer Olugbode for 25 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
81.4%
Matt Linehan run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+9
81.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 9 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
81.4%
Matt Linehan run for no gain to the TexSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
80.8%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon Watson, PENALTY TXST roughing passer (Smith,Stephen) 7 yards to the TXST7, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
80.8%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Steven Matlock) to the TexSt 12Similar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
80.9%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 3 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
80.8%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted Germod Williams return for 5 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
1 play · 95 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+95
84.4%
Terrence Franks run for 95 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:2315% → 14%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
85.3%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 9 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+3
85.0%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 3 yds to the Idaho 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
85.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 11 yds to the Idaho 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
84.9%
Matt Linehan sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Idaho 33Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+5
85.4%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 5 yds to the Idaho 38Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
85.7%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
86.0%
Austin Rehkow punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
85.3%
Terrence Franks run for 1 yd to the TexSt 6Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 9
OWN 6
-4
85.3%
Tyler Jones sacked by Quinton Bradley for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 2Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 13
OWN 2
+3
85.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 3 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 10
OWN 5
0
84.8%
Will Johnson punt for 47 yds, downed at the Idaho 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:1515% → 13%
Q2 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+13
84.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 13 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
85.2%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
84.8%
Aaron Duckworth run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
84.7%
Aaron Duckworth run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
84.1%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+16
84.8%
Matt Linehan run for 16 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
84.1%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-7
84.8%
Matt Linehan sacked by Michael Odiari for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
84.1%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon WatsonSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 17
OPP 24
+41
86.6%
Austin Rehkow 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
86.1%
Terrence Franks run for 11 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.2%
Terrence Franks run for 5 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
86.7%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
86.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Felix Romero) to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+6
86.5%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+6
85.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 6 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
86.6%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
86.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 9
OWN 47
+3
85.7%
Will Johnson punt for 40 yds , Joshua McCain returns for 3 yds to the Idaho 16Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
86.3%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1613% → 12%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-7
87.2%
Matt Linehan sacked by Michael Odiari for a loss of 7 yards to the Idaho 9Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 17
OWN 9
+5
87.9%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 5 yds to the Idaho 14Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-1
87.7%
Matt Linehan sacked by Michael Odiari and Karee Berry for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 13Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 13
OWN 13
+7
88.4%
Austin Rehkow punt for 50 yds , Craig Mager returns for 7 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 1:3688% → 92%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
88.0%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
88.0%
Terrence Franks run for 5 yds to the Idaho 49Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+5
87.7%
Terrence Franks run for 5 yds to the Idaho 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
88.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
88.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon Smith, broken up by Jayshawn JordanSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+38
87.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 38 yds to the Idaho 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
88.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley MillerSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
88.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley MillerSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
88.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 5 yds to the Idaho 1Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
93.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Kristoffer Olugbode for 6 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+5
92.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 5 yds to the Idaho 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
93.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 4 yds to the Idaho 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.9%
Terrence Franks run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
90.9%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
91.2%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
90.8%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
90.4%
Will Johnson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Joshua McCain at the Idaho 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
91.6%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 3 yds to the Idaho 14Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+2
91.7%
Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds to the Idaho 16Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
91.8%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+43
91.8%
Austin Rehkow punt for 43 yds , Craig Mager returns for 43 yds to the Idaho 16 Craig Mager fumbled, forced by Buck Cowan, recovered by Idaho Austin RehkowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 18TD
18 plays · 84 yds · 6:158% → 15%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
91.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 12 yds to the Idaho 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
91.7%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 12 yds to the Idaho 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
91.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 7 yds to the Idaho 47Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
90.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
90.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
90.9%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Nick Von Rotz) to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+8
91.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 8 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-15
90.1%
Elijhaa Penny rush over right tackle for 1 yard to the TXST33 (Mayo,David), PENALTY IDAHO illegal block (Mike Marboe) 15 yards to the TXST49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 22
OPP 49
+14
91.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 14 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+10
91.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 10 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
90.1%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
90.5%
Kristoffer Olugbode run for 9 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
90.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jake Manley for no gain to the TexSt 16Similar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
93.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
93.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+7
93.0%
Matt Linehan run for 1 yd to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Karee Berry) to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
85.4%
Richard Montgomery run for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Bradley Njoku return for no gain to the Idaho 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
87.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jake Manley for 7 yds to the Idaho 46Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-2
87.0%
Matt Linehan sacked by Michael Odiari for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 44Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
87.2%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCain, broken up by Craig MagerSimilar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
88.3%
Austin Rehkow punt for 55 yds, downed at the TexSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
89.2%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 4
OWN 7
-1
89.2%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 6Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+4
88.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 4 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
87.9%
Will Johnson punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Joshua McCain at the TexSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 22TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:2812% → 26%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
87.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Justin PodrabskySimilar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
87.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+20
88.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for 20 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
87.0%
Richard Montgomery run for 10 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Linehan failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4778% → 92%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
78.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 1 yd to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+70
92.2%
Terrence Franks run for 70 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:179% → 27%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
91.5%
Aaron Duckworth run for 27 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-8
90.0%
Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds to the Idaho 46 IDAHO Penalty, Offensive holding (Mason Woods) to the Idaho 44Similar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 18
OWN 44
+21
91.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 21 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
89.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 23 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
88.8%
Aaron Duckworth run for 5 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
73.1%
Aaron Duckworth run for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:0281% → 95%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
80.7%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+8
81.8%
Robert Lowe run for 8 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
82.2%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
82.5%
Terrence Franks run for 5 yds to the Idaho 46Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
82.6%
Terrence Franks run for 1 yd to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
83.0%
Terrence Franks run for 4 yds to the Idaho 41Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
83.3%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the Idaho 37Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+10
82.7%
Robert Lowe run for 10 yds to the Idaho 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
95.3%
Tyler Jones run for 27 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 26TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:255% → 20%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
94.6%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for a loss of 4 yards to the Idaho 21Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
94.7%
Aaron Duckworth run for 4 yds to the Idaho 25Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 9 yds to the Idaho 34Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
94.2%
Matt Linehan run for 1 yd to the Idaho 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
94.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 7 yds to the Idaho 42Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
93.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCain, broken up by Trey McgowanSimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
94.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the Idaho 44Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+9
94.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 9 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
93.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 2 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
93.7%
Aaron Duckworth run for 6 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
93.6%
Aaron Duckworth run for 3 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+33
93.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 33 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
92.9%
Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.9%
Aaron Duckworth run for no gain to the TexSt 4 Aaron Duckworth fumbled, recovered by Idaho Mike MarboeSimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
93.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.2%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3190% → 93%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
90.0%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
90.0%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+3
89.3%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
92.9%
Will Johnson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Joshua McCain at the Idaho 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 28INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
88.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 17 yds to the Idaho 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Richard Montgomery, broken up by Germod WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
86.7%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted Germod Williams return for no gain to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 11
OWN 27
-1
93.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:31
Aaron Duckworth run for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q4 14:48
Terrence Franks run for 70 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q4 3:00
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com