Try the model
GASO

Georgia Southern 36 at New Mexico State 28

NMSU
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:19 · Team run for no gain to the NMxSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:36: Larry Rose III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:02: Alex Hanks 45 yd FG GOOD — GASO win probability +6.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 11:37: Alfred Ramsby run for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +12.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:33: Ean Days run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +7.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:58: Brandon Betancourt run for 5 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:11GASO 4th & 6 at NMSU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:38GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 10 at GASO 33, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    33.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:52NMSU 4th & 9 at GASO 29, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−6.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:14GASO 4th & 3 at NMSU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−0.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−7.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:15GASO 4th & 1 at NMSU 14, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−2.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−8.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:23GASO 4th & 5 at NMSU 5, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−7.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02GASO 4th & 3 at NMSU 27, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%−1.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−8.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:37NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 34, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:45GASO 4th & 11 at NMSU 13, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−9.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 47, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:09GASO 4th & 3 at NMSU 48, up 15
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:42NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 21, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:25GASO 4th & 9 at NMSU 46, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:12NMSU 4th & 6 at GASO 13, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−4.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:45NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:36NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:37GASO Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:33GASO Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:58NMSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:34GASO Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:20NMSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.5 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%−2.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
14.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
14.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
14.1%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-1
14.1%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+20
14.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 20 yds to the GeoSo 40 lat. to Adam Shapiro for no gain Adam Shapiro fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Valdon CooperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
14.8%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+15
14.9%
Matt Breida run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
14.8%
Alfred Ramsby run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
14.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Kentrellis ShowersSimilar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+1
14.8%
Devin Scott run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
14.9%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 39 yds, downed at the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 99 yds · 3:1916% → 20%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
15.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
15.9%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+13
15.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 13 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
15.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+5
16.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
16.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 35 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
16.3%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-1
16.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+21
16.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 21 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
16.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
19.8%
Xavier Hall run for 8 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
19.4%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 7 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 3
OWN 24
0
19.2%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-1
19.4%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
19.6%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 32 yds, downed at the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:4521% → 28%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
21.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 10 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
21.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
21.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
21.1%
Brandon Betancourt run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+12
20.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 12 yds to the GeoSo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
21.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
21.1%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+7
20.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 7 yds to the GeoSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.8%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
26.1%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
25.8%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+8
25.8%
Matt Breida run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
25.8%
Alfred Ramsby run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
25.4%
Favian Upshaw run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
25.2%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+1
25.6%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 22 Matt Breida fumbled, forced by Kalei Auelua, recovered by NMxSt Jacob NwangwaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 0:0732% → 32%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
31.9%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+8
32.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 8 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+23
32.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 23 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
33.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 10 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
33.1%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-3
33.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
32.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph Matthews, broken up by Nick WrightSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+3
31.8%
Maxwell Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8KICKOFF
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
33.2%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
33.0%
Favian Upshaw run for no gain to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-13
33.2%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 13 yards to the GeoSo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
40.1%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
40.1%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-3
39.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 4
OPP 24
-5
38.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 9
OPP 29
0
38.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam Shapiro, broken up by Deion StanleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:0261% → 65%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+46
39.1%
Alfred Ramsby run for 46 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
36.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
36.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Kentrellis ShowersSimilar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+6
38.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+5
38.3%
Devin Scott run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
36.8%
Alfred Ramsby run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
34.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
38.5%
Brandon Betancourt run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
39.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Steve WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+24
39.2%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted N/A return for 24 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:5264% → 66%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
35.8%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+2
35.8%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
37.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+4
38.1%
Alfred Ramsby run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
35.8%
Alfred Ramsby run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
35.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
37.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
34.1%
Alex Hanks 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13INT
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:0038% → 40%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
39.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 15 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
39.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
40.1%
Brandon Betancourt run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+13
39.5%
Brandon Betancourt run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
40.6%
Brandon Betancourt run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
40.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+27
39.6%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Matt Dobson return for 27 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:2765% → 67%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
35.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
32.8%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 6 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
32.5%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Zach WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+1
33.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
33.2%
Alex Hanks 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:1865% → 80%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
34.7%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
33.4%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
33.6%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Kentrellis Showers, broken up by JB CopelandSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
33.7%
Zach Walker run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
32.4%
Alfred Ramsby run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+4
31.7%
Alfred Ramsby run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
32.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
32.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 5 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+27
32.3%
Matt Breida run for 27 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
20.2%
Alfred Ramsby run for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
25.5%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
24.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
23.5%
Steven Witkowski punt for 45 yds , Tray Butler returns for 8 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:2177% → 83%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
23.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 17 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
22.0%
Matt Breida run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
21.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
21.4%
Alfred Ramsby run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+6
20.4%
Alfred Ramsby run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
19.4%
Alfred Ramsby run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
19.4%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
19.7%
Alfred Ramsby run for no gain to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
21.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+30
17.4%
Alex Hanks 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
18.8%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27 Larry Rose III fumbled, forced by Robert Brice, recovered by NMxSt Valerian Ume-EzeokeSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+6
19.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
19.4%
Xavier Hall run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
21.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+6
19.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+1
20.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 1 yd to the NMxSt 46 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, HK ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+11
19.4%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Deion Stanley return for 11 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:2185% → 93%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
14.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
14.4%
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+17
14.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
14.3%
Devin Scott run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
14.3%
Ean Days run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.9%
Ean Days run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:2610% → 10%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
10.0%
Andrew Allen run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+4
10.7%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
10.9%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
10.8%
Brandon Betancourt run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
50
-3
10.9%
Andrew Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 47 Andrew Allen fumbled, forced by Edwin Jackson, recovered by NMxSt Andrew AllenSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+11
10.3%
Steven Witkowski punt for 40 yds , Tray Butler returns for 11 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
6.6%
Alfred Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+15
6.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
5.9%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson, broken up by Lewis HillSimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
6.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+1
6.0%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
6.6%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Teldrick Morgan at the NMxSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 11:42
4TH & 5
OWN 21
+14
8.3%
Steven Witkowski punt for 40 yds , Tray Butler returns for 14 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
8.3%
Brandon Betancourt run for no gain to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
8.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 5 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
8.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Jerrel BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
4.4%
Devin Scott run for no gain to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-4
4.4%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 49 Kevin Ellison fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Kevin EllisonSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+5
4.8%
Alfred Ramsby run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
5.1%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:145% → 18%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
5.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 17 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
5.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+6
5.6%
Xavier Hall run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
5.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam ShapiroSimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
5.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 5 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+6
5.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 6 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
5.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 8 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+13
6.3%
Brandon Betancourt run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
6.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 2 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-2
6.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Dean for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+4
5.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 4 yds to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+8
5.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Brandon Betancourt for 8 yds to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.8%
Brandon Betancourt run for 5 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:2194% → 98%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
6.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+13
6.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 2
OPP 40
-4
6.0%
Ellison, Kevin rush for 20 yards to the NMSU20 (Hill, Lewis;Fitzpatrick, Ja), PENALTY GSO HL 4 yards to the NMSU36, 1ST DOWN GSO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
6.2%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+3
4.7%
Zach Walker run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+32
2.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 32 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 2:091% → 7%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
1.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
1.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
1.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 8 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
1.0%
Brandon Betancourt run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
1.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyler Rogers, broken up by Ross AlexanderSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
1.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 15 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
1.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 10 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
1.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 11 yds to the GeoSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
1.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam Shapiro, broken up by Nick WrightSimilar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+15
1.2%
Rogers, Tyler pass incomplete to Bowen, Joshua (Stanley, Deion), PENALTY GSO pass interference (Stanley, Deion) 15 yards to the GSO3, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
1.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph MatthewsSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
7.2%
Brandon Betancourt run for 3 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
3.0%
Team run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:37
Alfred Ramsby run for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q4 3:58
Brandon Betancourt run for 5 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)
+11.9
TD · Q3 1:33
Ean Days run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com