Try the model
USA

South Alabama 47 at App State 21

APP
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-4.4APP 29.9%Grant McLaurin 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 0 · Q2 9:22
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:22 · Grant McLaurin 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense−11.0Score differential−4.4Garbage-time factor−1.7Pregame prior−8.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:22: Grant McLaurin 39 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +4.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:26: Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 67 yds for a TD, (Grant McLaurin KICK) — USA win probability +12.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:06: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 20 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +6.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:39: Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 43 yds for a TD, (Grant McLaurin MISSED) — USA win probability +12.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:44: Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 14 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +7.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:25USA 4th & 7 at APP 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:25APP 4th & 2 at APP 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:47APP 4th & 6 at APP 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:12USA 4th & 4 at APP 18, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.5%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:06APP 4th & 18 at APP 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:11USA 4th & 5 at APP 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:35APP 4th & 6 at USA 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:22USA 4th & 5 at APP 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:16APP 4th & 4 at APP 46, down 13
    Close callPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:31USA 4th & 5 at USA 47, up 13
    Close callPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:33APP 4th & 11 at APP 17, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:36APP 4th & 6 at USA 43, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:53USA 4th & 6 at USA 29, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:11USA 4th & 9 at USA 31, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:27USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:26USA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:06APP Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:44USA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:24USA Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:53APP Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:13USA Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:28APP Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
37.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 8 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 26
0
37.9%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
37.9%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 26 Marcus Cox fumbled, forced by Montell Garner, recovered by SAlab Terrell BrighamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2MISSED FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2162% → 61%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
38.2%
Jay Jones run for 12 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
38.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 4 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-1
38.2%
Jay Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 11Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
38.2%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
38.7%
Grant McLaurin 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by N/A return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
38.9%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the AppSt 15Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
38.8%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 15Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+3
38.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 3 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+10
38.7%
Taylor Lamb run for 10 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
38.7%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:4461% → 63%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
38.8%
Brandon Bridge run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 45Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+21
38.9%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 21 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
38.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 13 yds to the AppSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
38.7%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
38.7%
Jay Jones run for 3 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
37.4%
Brandon Bridge run for 8 yds for a TD, (Grant McLaurin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3238% → 38%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
38.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Montez McGuire, broken up by Montell GarnerSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
38.2%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
38.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Marcus Cox, broken up by Roman BuchananSimilar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
38.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 39 yds, downed at the SAlab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:1862% → 63%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
38.0%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Claude Garrett for 10 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
38.0%
Kendall Houston run for 5 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
37.8%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+10
37.9%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Cameron Broadnax for 10 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
37.5%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 18 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
37.3%
Jay Jones run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+18
37.3%
Jay Jones run for 18 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
37.2%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
37.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
37.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
37.3%
Grant McLaurin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
37.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 3 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
37.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Marcus Cox, broken up by Theo RichSimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-12
37.3%
Lamb, Taylor pass complete to Jones, Malachi for 10 yards to the APP33 (Ford, Qudarius), PENALTY APP pass interference (Jones, Malachi) 12 yards to the APP11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 19
OWN 0
+1
36.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 1 yd to the AppSt 12 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the AppSt 12Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
37.1%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:4964% → 64%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
36.5%
Jay Jones run for 4 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
36.5%
Jay Jones run for 7 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
36.5%
Brandon Bridge run for no gain to the AppSt 47Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+22
36.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 22 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
36.4%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 13 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-13
36.4%
Jay Jones run for no gain to the AppSt 12 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-13 Yards) to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 23
OPP 25
+14
36.5%
Jay Jones run for 14 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+4
36.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jay Jones for 4 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
36.0%
Grant McLaurin 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 2:3636% → 35%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
35.6%
Terrence Upshaw run for 4 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+15
35.8%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Lewis, Isaiah, PENALTY USA roughing passer (LaVelle,Desmond) 15 yards to the APP39, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
36.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Terrence Upshaw for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
36.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
50
0
36.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
50
+14
36.0%
Taylor Lamb run for 14 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
36.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 15 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
36.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Terrence UpshawSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
36.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for 4 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
35.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
34.6%
Zach Matics 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by N/A return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:1365% → 70%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
35.4%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Ronald Blair for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 16Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+37
35.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 37 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
34.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+16
34.3%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 16 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
34.0%
Brandon Bridge run for 2 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+3
34.0%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
34.3%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Claude GarrettSimilar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
29.9%
Grant McLaurin 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
30.6%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Jones, Malachi, PENALTY USA pass interference (Ford, Qudarius) 13 yards to the APP40, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
31.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
31.3%
Taylor Lamb run for 3 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
31.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Montez McGuireSimilar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
30.8%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5470% → 83%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
29.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 10 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
29.4%
Brandon Bridge run for 3 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+67
17.3%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 67 yds for a TD, (Grant McLaurin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:1621% → 29%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
20.7%
Taylor Lamb run for 9 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+2
21.5%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
21.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 9 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+15
22.3%
Lamb, Taylor pass intercepted by Brigham, Trrell at the USA15, Brigham, Trrell return to the USA28, out-of-bounds (Chapman, Jesse), PENALTY USA pass interference (Brigham, Trrell) 15 yards to the USA36, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
22.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Maleki Harris) to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
22.6%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-5
22.6%
McElfresh, S. pass complete to Lamb, Taylor for 5 yards to the USA14 (Gipson, Jimmie), PENALTY APP ineligible downfield on pass (Lamm, Kendall) 5 yards to the USA24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+4
22.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 4 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+20
28.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 20 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 1:2973% → 77%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
26.8%
Jay Jones run for 6 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
26.6%
Jay Jones run for no gain to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+5
26.9%
Brandon Bridge run for 5 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
26.0%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme Jones, broken up by Alex GraySimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
22.9%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Wes SaxtonSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+5
23.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
23.4%
Brandon McKee punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15END OF HALF
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:3528% → 22%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
27.5%
Taylor Lamb run for 9 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+14
28.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Isaiah Lewis for 14 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
28.5%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Jerome McClain and Jesse Kelley for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-2
23.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Terrence Upshaw for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+19
22.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 19 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2175% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
24.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jay Jones for 11 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
24.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
23.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
23.3%
Brandon Bridge run for 2 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+8
23.3%
Brandon Bridge run for 8 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
11.3%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 43 yds for a TD, (Grant McLaurin MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
16.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Jesse Chapman) to the AppSt 13Similar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 15
OWN 13
0
16.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Bobo BeathardSimilar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+5
15.9%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+5
15.8%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the AppSt 23Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-6
15.9%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Theo Rich and Ridge James for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 17Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
15.8%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 38 , T.J. Glover returns for no gain to the SAlab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:2189% → 97%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
10.6%
Jay Jones run for 2 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
10.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Cameron Broadnax for 9 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
10.5%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Cameron Broadnax for 30 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
10.0%
Kendall Houston run for 7 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
10.0%
Kendall Houston run for no gain to the AppSt 14Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
3.0%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 14 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
2.9%
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd to the AppSt 8Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+7
2.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 7 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+5
3.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 5 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 23
OWN 7
+10
2.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for 10 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+11
2.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Isaiah Lewis for 11 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
3.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
3.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 23 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
3.2%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
3.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi Jones, broken up by Montell GarnerSimilar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
3.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi Jones, broken up by Qudarius FordSimilar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
3.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:3998% → 99%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
1.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+11
1.8%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 11 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
1.7%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Braedon Bowman, broken up by John LawSimilar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
1.8%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Terrance Timmons for 4 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+7
1.8%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 7 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
0.8%
Terrance Timmons run for 30 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:251% → 2%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
1.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
50
+23
1.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 23 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
1.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
1.1%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+18
0.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 18 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete, broken up by Theo RichSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
0.6%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Sumler, Tacoi (Garner, Montell), PENALTY USA pass interference (Garner, Montell) 4 yards to the USA2, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.6%
Taylor Lamb run for no gain to the SAlab 2Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Drew Bailey for 2 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
1.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
1.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
1.2%
Matt Floyd run for no gain to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
1.2%
Brandon McKee punt for 36 yds , Bobo Beathard returns for no gain to the AppSt 35 Bobo Beathard fumbled, recovered by SAlab Xavier JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:3199% → 100%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
0.7%
Terrance Timmons run for 9 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+6
0.6%
Terrance Timmons run for 6 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
0.7%
Terrance Timmons run for 15 yds to the AppSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.3%
Berron Tyson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:420% → 0%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
0.3%
Ricky Fergerson run for 7 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
0.3%
Ricky Fergerson run for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+12
0.3%
Kameron Bryant run for 12 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
0.3%
Kameron Bryant pass complete to Barrett Burns for 19 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
0.3%
Kameron Bryant pass incomplete to Montez McGuireSimilar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+27
0.3%
Kameron Bryant run for 27 yds to the SAlab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
0.3%
Ricky Fergerson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 4
OPP 5
-13
0.3%
Ricky Fergerson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 3 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SAlab 18Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 17
OPP 18
+14
0.3%
Bryant, Kameron pass incomplete to Sumler, Tacoi, PENALTY USA pass interference (Fuller, Steven) 14 yards to the USA4, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
0.3%
Ricky Fergerson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 3Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
0.3%
Kameron Bryant run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 7Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.3%
Kameron Bryant pass complete to Isaiah Lewis for 7 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
0.3%
Berron Tyson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-2
0.3%
Berron Tyson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-1
0.3%
Berron Tyson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 31 Berron Tyson fumbled, recovered by SAlab Berron TysonSimilar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
0.2%
Brandon McKee punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26INT
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
0.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 5 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+11
0.2%
Kameron Bryant pass complete to Montez McGuire for 11 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
0.2%
Bryant, Kameron pass incomplete to Sumler, Tacoi, PENALTY USA pass interference (May, E.J.) 15 yards to the USA34, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
0.2%
Kameron Bryant run for 10 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
0.2%
Kameron Bryant pass complete to Isaiah Lewis for 2 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
0.2%
Kameron Bryant pass intercepted E.J. May return for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
0.2%
Matt Floyd run for 1 yd to the SAlab 2Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
0.2%
Matt Floyd run for 1 yd to the SAlab 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:26
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 67 yds for a TD, (Grant McLaurin KICK)
-12
TD · Q3 12:39
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 43 yds for a TD, (Grant McLaurin MISSED)
-12
TD · Q3 8:44
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 14 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com