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TROY

Troy 20 at UL Monroe 22

ULM
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:05 · Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the Troy 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+11.7Home team on offense−2.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:51: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 19 yds for a TD UL MONROE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +7.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  2. TD · Q2 0:41: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 4 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +13.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:05: Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 15 yds for a TD, (Brayle Brown failed ) — ULM win probability +11.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:36: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Silvers failed) — TROY win probability +28.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:08: Justin Manton 29 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +18.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 7 at ULM 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:19TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:54TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:39ULM 4th & 5 at TROY 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:39TROY 4th & 18 at TROY 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:17ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 42, up 13
    Close callPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:51ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:24TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ULM 4th & 22 at ULM 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−3.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:05TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 10, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:13ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:05TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 9, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:08ULM 4th & 2 at TROY 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−3.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:05TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 30, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 36, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:33ULM 4th & 10 at TROY 40, up 5
    Close callPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    75.8%−0.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:08ULM 4th & 12 at TROY 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−17.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−31.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:32TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:54ULM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:51TROY Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:41TROY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
78.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 13 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 17
OWN 41
+7
78.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Nyck Young for 7 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
78.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
78.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
78.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:1578% → 78%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
78.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 12 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
78.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
50
+3
78.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 3 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
78.6%
Pete Thomas run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
78.5%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
78.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 7 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+23
78.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 23 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-12
78.0%
Pete Thomas sacked by Tyler Roberts for a loss of 12 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+3
77.8%
Pete Thomas run for 3 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
77.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+37
77.6%
Justin Manton 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.6%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.6%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
77.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Nyck Young, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
77.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 1:1077% → 80%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
77.2%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
77.3%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+64
79.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 64 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
78.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-2
78.4%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+7
78.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-5
78.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 51 yds , Rashon Ceaser returns for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6FG
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:1079% → 83%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
78.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+21
78.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 21 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
79.0%
Tyler Cain run for 5 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+7
78.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 7 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
79.4%
Tyler Cain run for 1 yd to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+30
79.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 30 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
79.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tony Cook for 3 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
79.9%
Pete Thomas run for 5 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
79.6%
Tyler Cain run for 3 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
79.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
79.8%
Tyler Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+6
79.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 6 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
83.0%
Justin Manton 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
81.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 7 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+3
81.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
81.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-8
81.5%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Michael Johnson and Gerrand Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 18
OWN 26
0
82.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for no gain to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 18
OWN 26
0
82.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
83.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 35Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+3
83.4%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+4
83.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Centarius Donald for 4 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
83.3%
Justin Manton punt for 56 yds, downed at the Troy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
10 plays · 98 yds · 3:3917% → 27%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
82.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the Troy 3Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+4
83.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 4 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+8
83.1%
Brandon Silvers run for 8 yds to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
82.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+3
82.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Trey Page for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
81.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 11 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
81.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 33 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
80.7%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
73.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 19 yds for a TD UL MONROE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
79.6%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
79.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for no gain to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
78.4%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
77.6%
Justin Manton punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.3%
Khary Franklin run for no gain to the Troy 20Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
76.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+10
77.3%
Khary Franklin run for 10 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
75.8%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+3
76.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jalen Harris for 3 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
76.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
77.3%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds, downed at the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
78.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
77.7%
Tyler Cain run for 5 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
77.5%
Pete Thomas pass intercepted Femi Odaibo return for no gain to the LaMon 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:4428% → 41%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
72.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 13 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
71.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+17
71.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 17 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
70.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 4 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
66.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 4 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.5%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
66.6%
Pete Thomas sacked by Billy Dobbs and Mark Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
64.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 13 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
67.4%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
69.0%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+15
68.2%
Thomas, Pete pass left pass incomplete to Holley, Ajalen (Hall, Tray), PENALTY TROY pass interference (Hall, Tray) 15 yards to the TROY42, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
69.7%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-9
69.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard line TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaMon Pete Thomas , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
50
-4
66.3%
Pete Thomas sacked by Jamal Stadom for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 46
0
64.9%
Justin Manton punt for 47 yds, downed at the Troy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
63.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to K.D. EdenfieldSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+3
63.3%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
64.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to B.J. ChittySimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
65.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0067% → 63%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
66.7%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
67.0%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
65.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
62.9%
Justin Manton punt for 50 yds, downed at the Troy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
62.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 5 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+2
62.3%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+1
63.5%
Chandler Worthy run for 1 yd to the Troy 9Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 2
OWN 9
0
64.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the Troy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:0366% → 79%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
66.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
66.2%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+7
64.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 7 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+4
64.0%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
66.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 15 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
67.7%
Centarius Donald run for 6 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+15
78.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 15 yds for a TD, (Brayle Brown failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
72.9%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Gerrand Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
74.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 7 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
74.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5175% → 74%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
75.2%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
75.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 5 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
75.7%
Centarius Donald run for no gain to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
73.8%
Justin Manton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:2528% → 26%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
72.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 9 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+13
69.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 13 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
69.0%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Michael Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+30
77.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 30 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
72.2%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+5
73.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 5 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+7
74.3%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Joey Gautney for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 45 Brandon Silvers fumbled, recovered by LaMon Lorenzo Jackson , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
82.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+9
83.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 9 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.2%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
83.0%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
81.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
80.0%
Justin Manton punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2622% → 57%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+43
78.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 43 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
73.6%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
73.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+24
74.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 24 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
71.3%
Brandon Silvers run for 4 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+2
71.3%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
42.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Silvers failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 5:2856% → 79%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+29
55.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 29 yds to the ULMONROE 40 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
61.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 7 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+7
63.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 7 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
63.7%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
63.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 6 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+6
60.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 6 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
63.8%
Tyler Cain run for 4 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
63.8%
Pete Thomas run for 4 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+2
60.8%
Pete Thomas run for 2 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
63.8%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
63.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
60.8%
Pete Thomas sacked by Jamal Stadom for a loss of 10 yards to the Troy 12Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
78.9%
Justin Manton 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:3628% → 20%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
69.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 12 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
65.6%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Joey Gautney and Cody Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 16
OWN 43
0
78.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to B.J. Chitty, broken up by Mitch LaneSimilar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 16
OWN 43
+5
79.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 5 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
80.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to K.D. Edenfield TROY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0090% → 88%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
90.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 15
OWN 48
-5
88.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:36
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Silvers failed)
-28.5
FG · Q4 2:08
Justin Manton 29 yd FG GOOD
+18.2
TD · Q2 0:41
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 4 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com