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GASO

Georgia Southern 28 at South Alabama 6

USA
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:18 · Ean Days run for 12 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:04: Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +9.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:52: Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 28 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon MISSED) — USA win probability +6.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:37: Matt Breida run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +11.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:48: Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 26 — GASO win probability +9.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:51: Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the GeoSo 48 — USA win probability +7.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 5 at USA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:47GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:28USA 4th & 23 at GASO 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:16GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:40USA 4th & 15 at GASO 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00USA 4th & 8 at USA 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:04USA 4th & 3 at USA 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:29GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 29, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:52USA 4th & 5 at GASO 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:52GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 45, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:08USA 4th & 1 at USA 22, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.7
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:59USA 4th & 11 at USA 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:37USA 4th & 9 at GASO 9, down 15
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.7%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    24.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−8.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:51USA 4th & 25 at USA 37, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:21GASO 4th & 8 at USA 23, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−4.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:21USA 4th & 9 at GASO 44, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−<0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:00GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:04GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:37GASO Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:21GASO Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
55.5%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jay Jones for 14 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
55.5%
Jay Jones run for 5 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
55.5%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
55.5%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
55.5%
Brandon McKee punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
55.6%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+5
55.5%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
55.6%
Matt Breida run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
55.5%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+7
55.5%
Devin Scott run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
55.5%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
55.5%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
14 plays · 39 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
55.9%
Brandon Bridge run for 9 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
56.1%
Jay Jones run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
55.9%
Brandon Bridge run for 12 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
56.3%
T.J. Glover run for 5 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-7
56.4%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Jay Ellison for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+17
55.8%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Claude Garrett for 17 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
56.5%
Terrance Timmons run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
56.5%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+9
56.4%
Brandon Bridge run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
56.6%
Jay Jones run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+2
56.6%
Jay Jones run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-5
56.4%
Bridge, Brandon pass complete to Smith, Shavarez for 18 yards to the GS6, PENALTY USA illegal formation (May, Chris) 5 yards to the GS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-12
56.2%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Jamal Johnson and Quaun Daniels for a loss of 12 yards to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 23
OPP 41
0
55.7%
Brandon McKee punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
55.9%
Matt Breida run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
55.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
55.4%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+2
55.8%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 2 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
56.1%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 28 yds, downed at the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
56.4%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 15 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
57.5%
Kendall Houston run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
57.7%
Kendall Houston run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
57.7%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
57.6%
Jay Jones run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 35 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
57.0%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
56.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
55.7%
Brandon McKee punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 1:0245% → 51%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
55.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
55.3%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+64
49.0%
Matt Breida run for 64 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
50.1%
Kendall Houston run for 4 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+17
50.3%
Kendall Houston run for 17 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
51.2%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
50.7%
Jay Jones run for 2 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
50.3%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
49.8%
Brandon McKee punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:5851% → 63%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
49.2%
Alfred Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+11
49.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+48
48.7%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 48 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
47.2%
Alfred Ramsby run for 3 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+16
47.2%
Matt Breida run for 16 yds to the SAlab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
47.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.5%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
40.8%
Jay Jones run for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
41.2%
Jay Jones run for 6 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-2
41.3%
Jay Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
40.8%
Brandon McKee punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
37.0%
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
37.0%
Alfred Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
37.3%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
37.6%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:4436% → 42%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
36.3%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
36.2%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Claude GarrettSimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+21
35.8%
Brandon Bridge run for 21 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
38.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+9
38.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
38.7%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
38.6%
Jay Jones run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-1
38.0%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jay Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+28
41.7%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 28 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.0%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
39.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 8 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
38.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson, broken up by Montell GarnerSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
39.3%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
38.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
39.4%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 42 yds , T.J. Glover returns for no gain to the SAlab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2138% → 36%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
38.2%
Jay Jones run for 6 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+3
38.3%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
38.1%
Kendall Houston run for no gain to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
36.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 44 yds, downed at the GeoSo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
36.9%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
36.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-3
36.1%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
38.0%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 36 yds, fair catch by T.J. Glover at the SAlab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
38.0%
Brandon Bridge run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
37.5%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
36.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+4
35.6%
Brandon McKee punt for 52 yds , Tray Butler returns for 4 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:2064% → 83%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
35.9%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+9
35.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Kentrellis Showers for 9 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
34.6%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
35.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Kentrellis ShowersSimilar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+18
36.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 18 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
33.4%
Alfred Ramsby run for 6 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-2
33.2%
Alfred Ramsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+37
33.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 37 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
32.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.8%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.6%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17DOWNS
14 plays · 51 yds · 0:0021% → 23%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
20.9%
T.J. Glover run for 11 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
21.8%
Jay Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 35Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-5
20.7%
Bridge, Brandon pass complete to Saxton, Wes for 14 yards to the USA49, PENALTY USA ineligible downfield on pass (Dearman, Drew) 5 yards to the USA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+20
20.7%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
50
+12
22.9%
Brandon Bridge run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
23.4%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+13
24.1%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 13 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
24.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+10
24.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
24.1%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
24.1%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Braedon Bowman for a loss of 1 yard Braedon Bowman fumbled, forced by Valdon Cooper, recovered by SAlab Braedon BowmanSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
23.6%
Brandon Bridge run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
22.9%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Bernard Dawson for a loss of 15 yards to the GeoSo 24 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, intentional grounding (Brandon Bridge) to the GeoSo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4886% → 90%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
13.6%
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+17
13.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 17 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
12.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for no gain to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
12.8%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+5
9.6%
Kevin Ellison pass intercepted Maleki Harris return for 5 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
17.1%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
17.0%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Claude GarrettSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-15
16.5%
Bridge, Brandon pass complete to Jones, Jay for 9 yards to the GS39, PENALTY USA illegal block (Meggs, Melvin) 15 yards to the USA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 25
OWN 37
0
15.0%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Terrance TimmonsSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 25
OWN 37
+21
14.8%
Brandon McKee punt for 36 yds, downed at the SOUTHALA 27 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, kick catching interference (T.J. Glover) to the GeoSo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20MISSED FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 5:0091% → 94%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
8.7%
Matt Breida run for 11 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
8.5%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+7
8.6%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
8.5%
Matt Breida run for 12 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
8.0%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-10
8.0%
Ramsby, L.A. rush for 5 yards to the USA19 (James, Ridge), PENALTY GS holding (Frye, Garrett) 10 yards to the USA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 19
OPP 34
+6
8.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the SAlab 27 Kevin Ellison fumbled, forced by Desmond LaVelle, recovered by GeoSo Kevin EllisonSimilar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+4
8.6%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
6.2%
Alex Hanks 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
6.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 4 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+12
6.6%
Brandon Bridge pass intercepted Robert Brice return for 12 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
5.0%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the SAlab 28Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
5.2%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the SAlab 28Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-4
5.3%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Jesse Kelley for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 29 Kevin Ellison fumbled, recovered by SAlab Desmond LaVelle , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
5.4%
Brandon Bridge run for 1 yd to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+14
5.4%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 14 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+48
5.9%
Brandon Bridge pass intercepted Edwin Jackson return for 48 yds to the SAlab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 2:0296% → 99%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
3.8%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+9
3.8%
Matt Breida run for 9 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
3.7%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 6 Kevin Ellison fumbled, recovered by GeoSo BJ JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
1.0%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 7 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+7
1.0%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 7 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.0%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Braedon BowmanSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+10
1.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 10 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
1.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
1.0%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 10 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
1.1%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
1.1%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Cameron BroadnaxSimilar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+1
1.1%
Brandon Bridge run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 9
OPP 44
-14
1.1%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Ryan George for a loss of 14 yards to the SAlab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
0.4%
Ean Days run for 7 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+12
0.4%
Ean Days run for 12 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:37
Matt Breida run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q2 10:04
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
-9.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:48
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 26
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com