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ACU

Abilene Christian 38 at Troy 35

TROY
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:27 · Ryan Kay punt for 44 yds , Tyler Chapa returns for 7 yds to the AblCh 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior+24.0Home team on offense+0.6Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:06: Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cedric Gilbert for 63 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK) — ACU win probability +8.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:49: De'Andre Brown run for 47 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK) — ACU win probability +20.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 6:10: Nik Grau 27 yd FG GOOD — ACU win probability +23.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:17: Adrian Duncan run for 9 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK) — ACU win probability +11.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:20: Brandon Burks run for 1 yd for a TD ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +35.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ACU made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26TROY 4th & 2 at ACU 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:53ACU 4th & 4 at TROY 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ACU 4th & 7 at TROY 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:27TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:44ACU 4th & 15 at ACU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:49TROY 4th & 3 at ACU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:07TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:11TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 4 at ACU 47, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:10ACU 4th & 4 at TROY 10, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.1%−1.8
    88% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−26.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:10TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−3.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ACU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:26ACU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:46TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:13TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:39TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:21TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:06ACU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:49ACU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:17ACU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:20TROY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
82.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 7 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
82.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
82.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
82.5%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-2
82.5%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
82.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
82.5%
Ryan Kay punt for 50 yds, downed at the AblCh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:5818% → 22%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
81.8%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
81.8%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Noah Cheshier for 9 yds to the AblCh 24Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+11
81.8%
Herschel Sims run for 11 yds to the AblCh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
81.7%
Herschel Sims run for 14 yds to the AblCh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
81.6%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jonathan Parker for 9 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+9
81.6%
Herschel Sims run for 9 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
81.5%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
81.5%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jace Hudson for 11 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
81.5%
Herschel Sims run for 10 yds to the Troy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
81.5%
Herschel Sims run for no gain to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
78.4%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Monte Green-Avery for 12 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK), (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
78.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 18 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
79.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to K.D. EdenfieldSimilar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
79.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Khary FranklinSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+8
79.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 8 yds to the AblCh 49Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
79.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AblCh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
77.8%
Herschel Sims run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 18Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+10
77.9%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jamie Walker for 10 yds to the AblCh 28Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+7
77.7%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Noah Cheshier for 7 yds to the AblCh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
77.6%
Herschel Sims run for 10 yds to the AblCh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
77.3%
Herschel Sims run for no gain to the AblCh 45Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
77.4%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 5
50
+1
77.4%
Herschel Sims run for 1 yd to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
77.6%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 39 yds, downed at the Troy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 2:0875% → 80%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
75.4%
John Johnson run for 13 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
75.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
75.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
75.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
76.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+53
75.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 53 yds to the AblCh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 0
OWN 0
+4
75.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the AblCh 5 ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the AblCh 5Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:4622% → 23%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Monte Green-AverySimilar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.8%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 5 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
77.9%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cedric Gilbert for 14 yds to the AblCh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
76.6%
Herschel Sims run for 14 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
76.4%
Herschel Sims run for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
76.4%
Herschel Sims run for 1 yd to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-1
76.5%
Parker McKenzie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
77.2%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Bryan Holmes at the Troy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
77.6%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
77.6%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 6 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+4
77.1%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 4 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
77.7%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 19Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+9
77.5%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 9 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
77.4%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+7
77.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 44 yds , Tyler Chapa returns for 7 yds to the AblCh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
75.0%
Parker McKenzie sacked by Lonnie Gosha for a loss of 5 yards to the AblCh 30Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+1
75.4%
Herschel Sims run for 1 yd to the AblCh 31Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-1
75.9%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Herschel Sims for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 30Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+8
76.4%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 38 yds , Bryan Holmes returns for 8 yds to the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:3677% → 84%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
76.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 9 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+8
77.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 8 yds to the AblCh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
78.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jarvis BentleySimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
77.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 7 yds to the AblCh 36Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-15
77.8%
Silvers, B. screen pass incomplete to Worthy, C., PENALTY TROY pass interference (Worthy, C.) 15 yards to the TROY49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+15
76.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 15 yds to the AblCh 36Similar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+21
77.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 21 yds to the AblCh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
78.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the AblCh 8Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+6
78.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the AblCh 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the AblCh 1Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.7%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 10INT
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:0518% → 18%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
81.6%
McKenzie, Parke sideline pass complete to Hudson, Jace for 12 yards to the ACU37, PENALTY ACU holding (Funk, Codey) 10 yards to the ACU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+2
81.8%
Parker McKenzie run for 2 yds to the AblCh 17Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-6
81.9%
Parker McKenzie sacked by Tyler Roberts for a loss of 6 yards to the AblCh 11Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+12
82.1%
Parker McKenzie pass intercepted Femi Odaibo return for 12 yds to the AblCh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:2283% → 88%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
82.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete, broken up by Damon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-1
82.9%
Teddy Ruben run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 12Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+12
88.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
87.1%
De'Andre Brown run for 9 yds to the AblCh 24Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+8
86.6%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cade Stone for 8 yds to the AblCh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
86.7%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cade Stone for 5 yds to the AblCh 37Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
86.4%
De'Andre Brown run for 4 yds to the AblCh 41Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-3
85.7%
De'Andre Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:3512% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
88.0%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Cedric GilbertSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
88.1%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete, broken up by Tyler RobertsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+13
88.2%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 13 yds to the AblCh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
87.5%
Herschel Sims run for 13 yds to the AblCh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
86.8%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+49
87.4%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Monte Green-Avery for 49 yds to the TROY 3 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.8%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Jamie Walker, broken up by Terris LewisSimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.1%
Demarcus Thompson run for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.5%
Demarcus Thompson 3 Yd Run (Nik Grau Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:0481% → 91%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
80.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 9 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-1
81.8%
Khary Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
80.3%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
81.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
80.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 2 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+14
80.3%
Brandon Silvers run for 14 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+42
82.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 42 yds to the AblCh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
90.7%
Khary Franklin run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1511% → 21%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.0%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 13 yds to the AblCh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
88.1%
De'Andre Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 37Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+63
79.5%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cedric Gilbert for 63 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5983% → 81%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
83.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
82.9%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 5 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
81.7%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to K.D. Edenfield, broken up by Justin StewartSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
80.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AblCh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 17INT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
78.4%
Herschel Sims run for 2 yds to the AblCh 37Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
78.3%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 9 yds to the AblCh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
76.9%
McKenzie, Parke sideline pass complete to Thompson, Demar for 18 yards to the TROY36 (Reddick, Darrin), PENALTY ACU false start (Funk, Codey) 5 yards to the ACU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
78.9%
Herschel Sims run for no gain to the AblCh 41Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+7
79.2%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 7 yds to the AblCh 48Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-5
77.9%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (N/A) to the AblCh 43Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+12
79.7%
Parker McKenzie pass intercepted Femi Odaibo return for 2 yds to the Troy 45 TROY Penalty, illegal block (Joe Lofton) to the Troy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
82.4%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
82.1%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to John Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+5
81.1%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 5 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
81.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyler Chapa at the AblCh 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:4321% → 44%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
78.7%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to De'Andre Brown for 20 yds to the AblCh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
76.5%
McKenzie, Parke deep pass incomplete to Hudson, Jace (Young, Jacquez), PENALTY TROY offside defense (Timmons, B.) 5 yards to the TROY47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+47
55.8%
De'Andre Brown run for 47 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 43 yds · 1:4965% → 66%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
64.8%
Khary Franklin run for 3 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+9
64.4%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Kinderick Dent for 9 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
65.0%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Nyck Young, broken up by Travis Tarver IISimilar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
64.7%
Khary Franklin run for 3 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+22
62.0%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to John Johnson for 22 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
68.4%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Bryan Holmes, broken up by Tyler ChapaSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
67.5%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the AblCh 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
68.1%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to B.J. ChittySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
65.5%
Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Epps at the AblCh 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 21FG
16 plays · 82 yds · 7:1040% → 70%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
59.9%
De'Andre Brown run for 8 yds to the AblCh 16Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 2
OWN 16
0
59.3%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Noah CheshierSimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+7
60.8%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 7 yds to the AblCh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
59.1%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cedric Gilbert for 7 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
56.5%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cade Stone for 2 yds to the AblCh 32Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+8
57.5%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Noah Cheshier for 8 yds to the AblCh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
55.7%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 35Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-10
59.1%
Brown, De'Andre rush up middle for 5 yards to the ACU40 (Odaibo, Femi), PENALTY ACU holding (Walker, Jamie) 10 yards to the ACU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 25
OWN 25
+5
59.4%
De'Andre Brown run for 5 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+36
59.7%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jonathan Epps for 21 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Montres Kitchens) to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
51.9%
De'Andre Brown run for 3 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+15
51.3%
McKenzie, Parke deep pass incomplete to Thompson, Demar, PENALTY TROY roughing passer (Dobbs, Billy) 15 yards to the TROY16, 1ST DOWN ACU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
51.3%
Herschel Sims run for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
51.3%
Parker McKenzie run for 1 yd to the Troy 13Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+3
53.3%
Parker McKenzie run for 3 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
30.1%
Nik Grau 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0038% → 33%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
37.6%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 3 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
38.2%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
36.3%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 7
OWN 10
-5
34.7%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Troy 5Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 12
OWN 5
+5
33.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds , Tyler Chapa returns for 5 yds to the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:0377% → 96%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
23.0%
Herschel Sims run for 1 yd to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+3
21.7%
Herschel Sims run for 3 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+2
23.4%
Herschel Sims run for 2 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+10
21.8%
McKenzie, Parke sideline pass incomplete to Parker, Jonatha, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Young, Nyck) 10 yards to the TROY20, 1ST DOWN ACU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
16.2%
Adrian Duncan run for 1 yd to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
16.2%
Adrian Duncan run for 10 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
4.3%
Adrian Duncan run for 9 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 0:575% → 39%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
50
0
4.7%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Brandon Burks for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 10
50
0
4.5%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 10
50
+49
4.3%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to John Johnson for 49 yds to the AblCh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.4%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd for a TD ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0894% → 94%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
5.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 42Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 12
OWN 42
-2
5.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:20
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd for a TD ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+35
FG · Q4 6:10
Nik Grau 27 yd FG GOOD
-23.3
TD · Q3 1:49
De'Andre Brown run for 47 yds for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK)
-20.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com