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NAVY

Navy 35 at Texas State 21

TXST
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Will Johnson punt for 33 yds, downed at the Navy 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense−5.0Pregame prior−21.3Score differential−3.0Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:20: Tago Smith pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK) — NAVY win probability +3.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:46: Tago Smith 1 Yd Run (Nick Sloan Kick) — NAVY win probability +6.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:36: Robert Lowe run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK) — TXST win probability +8.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:43: Tago Smith pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 67 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:40: Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 12 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK) — TXST win probability +3.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:27TXST 4th & 12 at NAVY 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:46TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:52NAVY 4th & 1 at TXST 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:57TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:39TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:51NAVY 4th & 1 at midfield, up 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:44TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:30NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 5, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 3 at NAVY 7, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−4.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:37TXST 4th & 2 at NAVY 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:25NAVY 4th & 2 at TXST 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:53NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:20NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:14NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:46NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:43TXST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:36TXST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:43NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:40TXST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
23.5%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-5
23.5%
Jafus Gaines run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
23.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+1
23.5%
Will Johnson punt for 45 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 1 yd to the Navy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 4:0276% → 76%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
23.9%
Tago Smith pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+14
23.9%
Tago Smith run for 14 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
23.9%
Tago Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+17
23.9%
Noah Copeland run for 17 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
23.9%
Tago Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+6
23.9%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 6 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+14
24.1%
Chris Swain run for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 4:2625% → 25%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
24.6%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
24.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 7 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
24.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 5 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+8
24.9%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
25.0%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+10
25.0%
C.J. Best run for 10 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
25.1%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+16
25.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 16 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
25.1%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 3
OPP 6
-15
25.1%
Lowe,Robert rush for 4 yards to the NAVY2 (Drake, Jordan), PENALTY TXST face mask 15 yards to the NAVY21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 18
OWN 0
-7
24.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 8 yds to the Navy 13 TEXAS STATE Penalty, UR (N/A) to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 39
OPP 42
+27
24.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 27 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
25.2%
Jason Dann 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:0775% → 79%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
25.1%
Quinton Singleton run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
25.0%
Tago Smith run for 7 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
24.9%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
24.9%
Tago Smith pass incomplete to Brendan Dudeck, broken up by Craig MagerSimilar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+27
25.8%
Tago Smith run for 27 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
24.9%
Tago Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+15
24.9%
Tago Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, UR (Michael Odiari) to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
24.7%
Sanders, DeBrandon rush over left end for 2 yards to the TXST20 (Jeter-Gilmon, Jerrid), PENALTY NAVY holding (Brown, Demond) 10 yards to the TXST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+22
24.8%
Tago Smith pass complete to Thomas Wilson for 22 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
24.7%
Tago Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 9Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
24.7%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
21.5%
Tago Smith pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:1323% → 23%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
22.5%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+9
22.7%
Tyler Jones run for 9 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
22.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 11 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
23.2%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
23.1%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
23.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert Lowe, broken up by Paul QuessenberrySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
23.3%
Will Johnson punt for 33 yds, downed at the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:0078% → 81%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
21.9%
Noah Copeland run for 11 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
21.7%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+38
21.6%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 38 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
21.1%
Demond Brown run for 2 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+19
21.1%
Tago Smith pass complete to Geoffrey Whiteside for 19 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
20.9%
Tago Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.7%
Tago Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.1%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
18.0%
Tyler Jones run for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
18.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley Miller, broken up by Quincy AdamsSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
18.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ryan CardenSimilar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+17
18.0%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted James Britton return for 17 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:1182% → 90%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
17.9%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-6
17.9%
Tago Smith sacked by Colby Targun for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+24
17.5%
Jamir Tillman run for 24 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
16.9%
Tago Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.3%
Tago Smith 1 Yd Run (Nick Sloan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 6:0314% → 16%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
14.3%
Terrence Franks run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
14.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 8 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
14.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 3 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
14.8%
Jones,Tyler rush up middle for 2 yards to the TXST39 (Quessenberry, Paul), PENALTY TXST holding (Sarabia, Brandon) 10 yards to the TXST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+10
14.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 10 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
14.3%
Jones,Tyler deep out pass complete to Lowe,Robert for 53 yards to the NAVY10 (Adams, Quincy), PENALTY TXST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TXST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-9
14.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 6 yds to the TexSt 38 TEXAS STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jafus Gaines) to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 24
OWN 23
+7
13.9%
Terrence Franks run for 7 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+16
13.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 16 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+6
14.4%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
15.6%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
15.6%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+11
15.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 11 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
16.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+13
16.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 13 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
16.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 2 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+7
16.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 7 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+5
15.7%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.0%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
10.5%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 72 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+63
9.2%
Noah Copeland run for 63 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
8.5%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
8.5%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
8.7%
Tago Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.5%
Tago Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
10.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 1 yd to the TexSt 2Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
10.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
10.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley Miller, broken up by Brendon ClementsSimilar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+4
10.1%
Will Johnson punt for 38 yds , Parrish Gaines returns for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
7.2%
Noah Copeland run for 5 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-15
7.0%
Smith, Tago pass incomplete, PENALTY NAVY illegal use of hands (Binns, E.K.) 15 yards to the TXST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 20
OPP 46
0
7.2%
Tago Smith pass intercepted Germod Williams return for no gain to the TexSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
10.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-7
10.0%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Bradley Miller) to the TexSt 15Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+6
9.9%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
9.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
9.9%
Will Johnson punt for 48 yds, downed at the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:4193% → 95%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
6.7%
Tago Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
6.7%
Tago Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
6.6%
Quinton Singleton run for 2 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
6.5%
Toneo Gulley run for 6 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
6.4%
Tago Smith run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
6.5%
Tago Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 1
50
0
4.6%
Pablo Beltran punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
7.1%
C.J. Best run for 9 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+8
7.5%
Robert Lowe run for 8 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
7.4%
Robert Lowe run for 8 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
7.8%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
7.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
7.7%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-10
7.5%
Jones,Tyler pass complete to Best,C.J. for 3 yards to the TXST45 (Uzoma, Obi), PENALTY TXST holding (Fissell,Collin) 10 yards to the TXST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+14
7.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 14 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
7.7%
Will Johnson punt for 53 yds, downed at the Navy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
2.5%
Tago Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 2Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
2.5%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+1
2.6%
Tago Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 5Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+8
2.7%
Pablo Beltran punt for 47 yds for a 1ST down , Craig Mager returns for 8 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:575% → 14%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
4.9%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+10
4.9%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
5.0%
Terrence Franks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+7
4.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 7 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+1
4.3%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+6
4.2%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.1%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.3%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.3%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:4793% → 98%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
7.0%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+67
1.6%
Tago Smith pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 67 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
2.6%
C.J. Best run for 8 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+6
2.7%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
2.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 20 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
2.9%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
3.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
3.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
3.0%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 18 yds · 4:0499% → 99%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
1.1%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
1.1%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+7
1.1%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
1.1%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
0.8%
Tago Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 37 NAVY Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+5
0.8%
Tago Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 2
OPP 32
-5
1.2%
Tago Smith sacked by Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:401% → 5%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
1.3%
C.J. Best run for 8 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+4
1.4%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
1.4%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
1.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 7 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+12
1.5%
Robert Lowe run for 12 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
1.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 9 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+9
1.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 9 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
4.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 12 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23END OF GAME
12 plays · 43 yds · 0:5799% → 99%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
1.4%
Tago Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
1.3%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
1.3%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
1.3%
Tago Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
1.3%
Tago Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+21
1.3%
Chris Swain run for 21 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
1.2%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:36
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)
+8
TD · Q2 6:46
Tago Smith 1 Yd Run (Nick Sloan Kick)
-6.6
TD · Q4 12:43
Tago Smith pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 67 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com