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UAPB

Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0 at Texas State 65

TXST
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUAPB aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUAPB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.1TXST 99.7%Jason Dann 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 45 · Q3 10:57
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:57 · Jason Dann 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior+26.4Home team on offense+27.9Score differential+25.0Blowout margin+12.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.5Garbage-time factor+8.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:28: Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 11 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK) — TXST win probability +0.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:30: Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 16 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK) — TXST win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:13: Robert Lowe run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK) — TXST win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:44: Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 16 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK) — TXST win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:13: Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 31 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK) — TXST win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UAPB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00UAPB 4th & 2 at UAPB 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:05UAPB 4th & 9 at TXST 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UAPB 4th & 12 at UAPB 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:29UAPB 4th & 6 at UAPB 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:22UAPB 4th & 7 at TXST 44, down 28
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:57TXST 4th & 7 at UAPB 13, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:57UAPB 4th & 16 at UAPB 30, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:43UAPB 4th & 6 at UAPB 29, down 51
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:37UAPB 4th & 4 at UAPB 42, down 51
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:58UAPB 4th & 7 at UAPB 48, down 65
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:46TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:28TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:30TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:13TXST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:44TXST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:13TXST Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:40TXST Touchdown, up 57 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:02TXST Touchdown, up 64 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UAPBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
95.5%
Benjamin Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
95.5%
Aaron Lagrone run for no gain to the ArkPB 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+8
95.5%
Benjamin Anderson pass complete to Aaron Lagrone for 8 yds to the ArkPB 27 ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+35
95.5%
Dylan Neiheiser punt for 51 yds , Craig Mager returns for 35 yds to the ArkPB 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:3395% → 95%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
95.2%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the ArkPB 37Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+6
95.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 6 yds to the ArkPB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
95.2%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the ArkPB 30Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+13
95.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 13 yds to the ArkPB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
95.2%
C.J. Best run for 17 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 3MISSED FG
17 plays · 52 yds · 7:415% → 6%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.1%
Micheal Wilson run for 4 yds to the ArkPB 29Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
95.1%
Benjamin Anderson pass complete to Wesley Hawthorne for 11 yds to the ArkPB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
95.1%
Micheal Wilson run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 43Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
95.0%
Benjamin Anderson pass incomplete to Wesley HawthorneSimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+8
95.1%
Benjamin Anderson pass complete to Isiah Ferguson for 8 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
95.0%
Micheal Wilson run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
95.0%
Benjamin Anderson pass complete to Willie Young for 5 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+7
95.0%
Benjamin Anderson run for 7 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.0%
Benjamin Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
95.0%
Benjamin Anderson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+10
95.0%
Benjamin Anderson pass complete to Joel Porchia for 10 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
95.0%
Aaron Lagrone run for 4 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-3
95.0%
Aaron Lagrone run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 23 Aaron Lagrone fumbled, forced by Mershad Dillon, recovered by ArkPB Benjamin AndersonSimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-5
95.0%
ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+5
95.1%
Aaron Lagrone run for 5 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+39
93.8%
Tyler Strickland 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:3794% → 95%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
94.0%
Tyler Jones run for 20 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
94.2%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 3
50
+5
94.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 5 yds to the ArkPB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
94.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 17 yds to the ArkPB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
94.2%
C.J. Best run for 11 yds to the ArkPB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-8
94.2%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 15 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the ArkPB 25Similar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 18
OPP 25
+14
94.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 14 yds to the ArkPB 11Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
95.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 11 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:286% → 6%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.5%
Anderson, B. post pass incomplete to Young, Willie, PENALTY TXST roughing passer (Berry,Karee) 15 yards to the UAPB40, 1ST DOWN UAPB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
94.5%
Aaron Lagrone run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 43Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
94.4%
Benjamin Anderson pass complete to Wesley Hawthorne for 4 yds to the ArkPB 47Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-9
94.4%
Benjamin Anderson sacked by Michael Orakpo and Jeff Banks for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkPB 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
94.5%
Dylan Neiheiser punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:2395% → 97%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
94.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 7 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+3
94.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 3 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
94.5%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+4
94.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 4 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
94.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 6 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+17
94.7%
Robert Lowe run for 17 yds to the ArkPB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
94.8%
Tyler Jones run for 12 yds to the ArkPB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
94.8%
Terrence Franks run for 13 yds to the ArkPB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
94.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the ArkPB 16Similar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+16
97.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 16 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
96.4%
Benjamin Anderson run for 6 yds to the ArkPB 45Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
96.3%
Aaron Lagrone run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 48Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-5
96.3%
ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, false start (N/A) to the ArkPB 43Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
96.5%
Benjamin Anderson pass incomplete to Wesley HawthorneSimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
96.5%
Dylan Neiheiser punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:3397% → 98%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+71
97.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 71 yds to the ArkPB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.3%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:412% → 1%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
98.2%
Willie Young run for 7 yds to the ArkPB 29Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
98.0%
Benjamin Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+11
98.1%
Benjamin Anderson run for 11 yds to the ArkPB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
98.1%
Benjamin Anderson pass complete to Wesley Hawthorne for 13 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
98.0%
Benjamin Anderson run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
98.0%
Benjamin Anderson pass incomplete to Joel PorchiaSimilar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
98.9%
Benjamin Anderson pass incomplete to Joel PorchiaSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
99.0%
Dylan Neiheiser punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:2599% → 99%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
98.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 10 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
98.7%
Terrence Franks run for 7 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+17
98.7%
Tyler Jones run for 17 yds to the ArkPB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
98.7%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 43Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+12
98.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brice Gunter for 12 yds to the ArkPB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
98.7%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 29Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
98.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus Gaines, broken up by Kevin Rucker Jr.Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+8
98.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 8 yds to the ArkPB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
98.7%
Tyler Jones sacked by Antonio Jenkins and Kyle Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkPB 24Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+8
98.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 8 yds to the ArkPB 16Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
99.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 16 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:381% → 1%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.4%
Aaron Lagrone run for 6 yds to the ArkPB 30Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
99.5%
Aaron Lagrone run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.6%
Micheal Wilson run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 38Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
99.6%
Benjamin Anderson run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 40Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
99.5%
Micheal Wilson run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 42 Micheal Wilson fumbled, forced by David Mayo, recovered by TexSt Germod WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:3799% → 100%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
99.4%
Tyler Jones sacked by Demarcus Berry for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkPB 44Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+5
99.4%
ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the ArkPB 39Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+8
99.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 8 yds Brandon Smith fumbled, forced by Kevin Rucker Jr., recovered by TexSt Ben Ijah for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 31 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+29
99.6%
Benjamin Anderson run for 29 yds to the ArkPB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
99.6%
Robert Lowe run for 13 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for no gain Ben Ijah fumbled, recovered by TexSt N/ASimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-4
99.6%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the TEXSTATE 47 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+10
99.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brice Gunter for 10 yds to the ArkPB 47Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+19
99.6%
Robert Lowe run for 19 yds to the ArkPB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
99.6%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the ArkPB 21Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+5
99.6%
ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, Defensive offside (Marc Lucien) to the ArkPB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
99.6%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the ArkPB 9Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
99.6%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the ArkPB 8Similar
Q3 14:51
4TH & 2
OPP 8
-5
99.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the ArkPB 13Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
99.7%
Jason Dann 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Aaron Lagrone run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 28Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.7%
Benjamin Anderson run for 8 yds to the ArkPB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Benjamin Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Benjamin Anderson pass incomplete to Isiah Ferguson, broken up by Damani AlexceeSimilar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-6
99.7%
Benjamin Anderson sacked by Michael Orakpo and David Mayo for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkPB 30Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Dylan Neiheiser punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+51
99.7%
Robert Lowe run for 51 yds to the ArkPB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
99.7%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 13Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+9
99.8%
Terrence Franks run for 9 yds to the ArkPB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Terrence Franks run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Micheal Wilson run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 27Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.8%
Benjamin Anderson run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 29Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Benjamin Anderson pass incomplete to Isiah FergusonSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Dylan Neiheiser punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkPB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 45 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
99.8%
Connor White pass complete to Brice Gunter for 14 yds to the ArkPB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for 6 yds to the ArkPB 25Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
99.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
99.8%
Connor White run for 14 yds to the ArkPB 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the ArkPB 2Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
99.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkPB 3Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+1
99.8%
Connor White run for 1 yd Connor White fumbled, recovered by ArkPB J LockettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.9%
Brian Handley run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkPB 19Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+17
99.9%
Benjamin Anderson pass complete to Marvante King for 17 yds to the ArkPB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.9%
Benjamin Anderson sacked by Stephen Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkPB 35Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Aaron Lagrone run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 37Similar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Benjamin Anderson run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 42Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Dylan Neiheiser punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:23100% → 100%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 12 yds to the ArkPB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to David Lewis for 7 yds to the ArkPB 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
Connor White run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+12
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Jack Rhoades for 12 yds to the ArkPB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Connor White pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 6 yds to the ArkPB 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+8
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 8 yds to the ArkPB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-8
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkPB 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 0
OPP 12
+5
99.9%
White,Connor rush over right end for loss of 1 yard to the UAPB13, out-of-bounds (Jenkins, A.), PENALTY UAPB face mask (Jenkins, A.) 5 yards to the UAPB7, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.9%
Louis Rubin run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 5Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Louis Rubin run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
100.0%
Aaron Lagrone run for 4 yds to the ArkPB 28Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+15
100.0%
Anderson, B. deep out pass incomplete to Young, Willie, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Rosemond,Dila) 15 yards to the UAPB43, 1ST DOWN UAPB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
100.0%
Micheal Wilson run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 46Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
100.0%
Micheal Wilson run for 1 yd to the ArkPB 47Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Aaron Lagrone run for no gain to the ArkPB 47 Aaron Lagrone fumbled, forced by Demetrius Woodard, recovered by TexSt Darius HoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
100.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 7 yds to the ArkPB 40Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+5
100.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
100.0%
Fred Nixon run for 12 yds to the ArkPB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
100.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 8 yds to the ArkPB 13 Stedman Mayberry fumbled, recovered by TexSt N/A for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
100.0%
Louis Rubin run for 9 yds to the ArkPB 4Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Louis Rubin run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 23PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 4:580% → 0%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
100.0%
Marcus Terrell run for 6 yds to the ArkPB 26Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-5
100.0%
ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, false start (N/A) to the ArkPB 21Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
100.0%
Dennis Brunson run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 23Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+12
100.0%
Marcus Terrell pass complete to John Hawkins for 12 yds to the ArkPB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
100.0%
ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, false start (Trevon Raegan) to the ArkPB 30Similar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+15
100.0%
Dennis Brunson run for no gain to the ArkPB 30 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Rusmin Nikocevic) to the ArkPB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Marcus Terrell pass incomplete to Marvante KingSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Marcus Terrell run for no gain to the ArkPB 45Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+3
100.0%
Brian Handley run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 48Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Dylan Neiheiser punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
100.0%
M Jones run for 7 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-2
100.0%
M Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:30
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 16 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 9:13
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q1 1:28
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 11 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com