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CP

Cal Poly 10 at New Mexico State 28

NMSU
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2014 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadCP aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreCP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:40 · Stephen Pyle punt for 46 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for 9 yds to the NMxSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Home team on offense+28.3Pregame prior−1.0Score differential+11.0Garbage-time factor+7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:07: Xavier Hall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:20: Stephen Pyle 24 yd FG GOOD — CP win probability +6.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: CP has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:45: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line — NMSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:05: Larry Rose III 6 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick) — NMSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:51: Larry Rose III 6 Yd Run (Maxwell Johnson Kick) — NMSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CP made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:30NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 41, tied
    Close callWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:56NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:09CP 4th & 9 at NMSU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:42NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:00CP 4th & 8 at CP 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:31NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:20CP 4th & 4 at NMSU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:27CP 4th & 8 at CP 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:21CP 4th & 7 at CP 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:53NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 40, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:38CP 4th & 5 at CP 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:16CP 4th & 9 at CP 10, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:11NMSU 4th & 25 at NMSU 40, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:40CP 4th & 4 at CP 31, down 18
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:43NMSU 4th & 3 at CP 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:46NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:48CP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:07NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:05NMSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:51NMSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5937% → 41%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.6%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
36.8%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
37.0%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
37.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 5 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
37.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 4 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-4
38.0%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+5
37.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
38.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 14 yds to the CPoly 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
38.8%
Brandon Betancourt run for 10 yds to the CPoly 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
39.1%
Brandon Betancourt run for no gain to the CPoly 30Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
41.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 30 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 2TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:1659% → 61%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
40.9%
Kori Garcia run for 15 yds to the CPoly 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
40.7%
Kori Garcia run for 1 yd to the CPoly 39Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+4
41.2%
Chris Brown run for 4 yds to the CPoly 43Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+13
41.3%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
41.0%
Chris Nicholls run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
40.8%
Kori Garcia run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
40.9%
Chris Brown run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
41.4%
Kenny Mitchell run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
41.1%
Brandon Howe run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+14
41.2%
Chris Brown run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
38.7%
Brandon Howe run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stephen Pyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:3440% → 41%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
40.3%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+11
40.9%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
41.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Andrew DeanSimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
40.9%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
41.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
41.0%
Jalen Warfield punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Chris Nicholls at the CPoly 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 4INT
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:3759% → 60%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
40.6%
Brandon Howe run for 4 yds to the CPoly 14Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+6
40.6%
Chris Nicholls run for 6 yds to the CPoly 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
40.6%
Chris Brown run for 7 yds to the CPoly 27Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
40.3%
Brandon Howe run for no gain to the CPoly 27Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
41.0%
Chris Nicholls run for 6 yds to the CPoly 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
40.8%
Brandon Howe run for 6 yds to the CPoly 39Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
40.1%
Chris Brown pass complete to Roland Jackson Jr. for 2 yds to the CPoly 41Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
40.2%
Brandon Howe run for 3 yds to the CPoly 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
40.2%
Kori Garcia run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+10
39.7%
Chris Brown pass intercepted Winston Rose return for 10 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:5744% → 56%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
43.5%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
44.6%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+8
44.5%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the CPoly 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
45.6%
Brandon Betancourt run for 3 yds to the CPoly 43Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
45.8%
Brandon Betancourt run for 4 yds to the CPoly 39Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+25
45.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 25 yds to the CPoly 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
47.1%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the CPoly 8Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+6
47.3%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the CPoly 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
47.6%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the CPoly 2Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 0
OPP 2
+1
48.5%
CAL POLY Penalty, Defensive Holding (1 Yards) to the CPoly 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.1%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4948% → 46%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
52.5%
Chris Brown run for 24 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
50.9%
Brandon Howe run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+2
51.3%
Chris Nicholls run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-3
51.9%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
54.5%
Stephen Pyle punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0856% → 54%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
55.6%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
55.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+2
55.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
54.4%
Stephen Witkowski punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chris Nicholls at the CPoly 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1346% → 43%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
54.5%
Chris Brown run for 2 yds to the CPoly 44Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
54.3%
Kenny Mitchell run for no gain to the CPoly 44Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-10
55.7%
CAL POLY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CPoly 34Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 18
OWN 34
+10
57.9%
Kori Garcia run for 10 yds to the CPoly 44Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
56.8%
Stephen Pyle punt for 39 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for no gain to the NMxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2757% → 55%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
57.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
56.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
55.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+12
54.9%
Stephen Witkowski punt for 47 yds , Chris Nicholls returns for 12 yds to the CPoly 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 10FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:0146% → 49%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+39
53.8%
Chris Nicholls run for 39 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
50.8%
Chris Brown run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
51.0%
Brandon Howe run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
53.3%
Chris Brown run for no gain to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
50.9%
Stephen Pyle 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
53.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1848% → 45%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
52.1%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 27Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+3
53.0%
Chris Brown run for 3 yds to the CPoly 30Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
54.0%
Chris Brown pass incomplete to Kori GarciaSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+5
55.1%
Stephen Pyle punt for 35 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:2256% → 56%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
56.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 6 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-1
56.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
55.5%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Chris Fletcher return for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
49.9%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 6 yards to the CPoly 48 Chris Brown fumbled, recovered by NMxStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:4058% → 77%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
57.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 12
50
+5
56.0%
Brandon Betancourt run for 5 yds to the CPoly 45Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+17
57.1%
Brandon Betancourt run for 17 yds to the CPoly 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
62.0%
Brandon Betancourt run for 4 yds to the CPoly 24Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
62.1%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the CPoly 24Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+11
61.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 11 yds to the CPoly 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
62.8%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the CPoly 5Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+2
63.0%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the CPoly 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
63.0%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the CPoly 6Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
76.5%
Larry Rose III 6 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:3926% → 23%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.8%
Chris Brown run for 10 yds to the CPoly 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
73.2%
Kori Garcia run for 7 yds to the CPoly 42Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
72.0%
Kori Garcia run for 3 yds to the CPoly 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
72.5%
Kori Garcia run for 2 yds to the CPoly 47Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
72.5%
Kori Garcia run for 1 yd to the CPoly 48Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
73.4%
Chris Nicholls pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+2
77.1%
Stephen Pyle punt for 44 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:2278% → 81%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
78.1%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+1
78.4%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
78.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
79.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 12 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
80.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
80.4%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+6
80.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 6 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
81.0%
Stephen Witkowski punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chris Nicholls at the CPoly 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:5219% → 17%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
81.2%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 10Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+22
81.6%
Kori Garcia run for 22 yds to the CPoly 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
80.1%
Kori Garcia run for 6 yds to the CPoly 38Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
78.7%
Kori Garcia run for 2 yds to the CPoly 40Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-3
79.7%
Chris Nicholls run for a loss of 3 yards to the CPoly 37Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
82.6%
Stephen Pyle punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:4085% → 97%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
84.6%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
85.5%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+8
84.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
86.5%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the CPoly 47Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+6
86.9%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the CPoly 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
87.1%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the CPoly 40Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+12
88.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 12 yds to the CPoly 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
89.6%
Xavier Hall run for 13 yds to the CPoly 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
89.8%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the CPoly 12Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+6
89.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the CPoly 6Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
97.0%
Larry Rose III 6 Yd Run (Maxwell Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:114% → 3%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
96.4%
Dano Graves run for 2 yds to the CPoly 11Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+4
96.4%
Dano Graves run for 4 yds to the CPoly 15Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
96.6%
Dano Graves pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 4
OWN 15
-5
96.7%
CAL POLY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CPoly 10Similar
Q4 7:16
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
96.7%
Stephen Pyle punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Gregory Hogan at the CPoly 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:3798% → 98%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-17
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 27
OWN 38
+2
97.8%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 25
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 25
OWN 40
0
97.5%
Stephen Witkowski punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CPoly 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:223% → 2%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.1%
Dano Graves run for 6 yds to the CPoly 31Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
97.5%
Dano Graves pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
97.7%
Chris Nicholls run for no gain to the CPoly 31Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+9
97.9%
Stephen Pyle punt for 46 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for 9 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:4998% → 99%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
98.2%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
98.4%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+24
98.5%
Larry Rose III run for 24 yds to the CPoly 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
98.7%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the CPoly 33Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+2
98.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the CPoly 31Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+1
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 1 yd to the CPoly 30Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+2
98.9%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the CPoly 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:292% → 2%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
98.1%
Dano Graves pass complete to Chris Nicholls for 4 yds to the CPoly 32Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
98.2%
Chris Nicholls run for 5 yds to the CPoly 37Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-5
98.3%
CAL POLY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CPoly 32Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+6
98.2%
Kori Garcia run for 6 yds to the CPoly 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:05
Larry Rose III 6 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)
+13.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:45
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line
+7.7
TD · Q2 8:07
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com