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ARK

Arkansas 21 at Auburn 45

AUB
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.9AUB 97.2%Daniel Carlson 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 21 - HOME 38 · Q4 9:55
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:55 · Daniel Carlson 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Pregame prior+9.2Home team on offense+26.1Score differential+13.5Garbage-time factor+12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:20: Jeremy Johnson pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 18 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:06: Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 17 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +3.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:28: Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +7.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:42: Nick Marshall run for 19 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +7.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:39: Brandon Allen pass intercepted for a TD Jermaine Whitehead return for 33 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +9.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 13:27ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:09ARK 4th & 6 at AUB 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:34AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:27AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:24ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00AUB 4th & 6 at ARK 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:04ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:30ARK 4th & 10 at AUB 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:30AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:47ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:55AUB 4th & 14 at ARK 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:00ARK 4th & 13 at ARK 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:18ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 30, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:37AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:44ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:01AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:20AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:06ARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:28ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:42AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:39AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:15AUB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:138% → 8%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
92.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
91.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius Wilson, broken up by Jonathan JonesSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+7
91.9%
Brandon Allen run for 7 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
91.7%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3892% → 91%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
91.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 3 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
91.5%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Sammie Coates for 13 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
91.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 3
50
-10
91.5%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gage Batten) to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
91.3%
Ricardo Louis run for no gain to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+14
91.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Cameron Artis-Payne for 14 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
91.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+49
91.4%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Melvin Ray for 49 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:419% → 11%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.3%
Korliss Marshall run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
91.1%
Korliss Marshall run for 13 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
91.0%
Alex Collins run for 20 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
90.7%
Alex Collins run for 21 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
90.6%
Korliss Marshall run for no gain to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
89.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 14 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2990% → 91%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
89.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 19 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
90.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
89.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+15
89.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Rohan Gaines) to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+9
89.7%
Corey Grant run for 9 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
89.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to C.J. Uzomah for 26 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:3110% → 10%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.3%
Korliss Marshall run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
90.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+20
90.3%
Brandon Allen run for 4 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (16 yards) (Angelo Blackson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
50
+11
89.7%
Jonathan Williams run for 11 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
89.7%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+5
89.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 5 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
89.6%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:09
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
89.8%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 33 yds, downed at the Aub 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
7 plays · 98 yds · 2:3090% → 93%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
90.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 7 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+7
89.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 7 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+62
90.0%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 62 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
90.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 7 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-5
90.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 10 yds to the Ark 5 AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Patrick Miller) to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
90.4%
Corey Grant run for 2 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+18
92.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 18 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:598% → 12%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
91.8%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+26
91.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 26 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
91.4%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Holding (TEAM) to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
91.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+10
91.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 10 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
87.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 17 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1089% → 89%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
89.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
89.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 9 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-1
89.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+4
88.7%
Daniel Carlson punt for 62 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 4 yds to the Ark 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 4:4711% → 22%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
89.2%
Korliss Marshall run for 8 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+3
88.9%
Korliss Marshall run for 3 yds to the Ark 18 Korliss Marshall fumbled, recovered by Ark Jared Cornelius for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
88.8%
Alex Collins run for 18 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
88.6%
Alex Collins run for 11 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
88.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 7
50
+1
87.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jonathan Williams for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+14
87.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 14 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
87.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 18 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
86.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 11 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
78.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4883% → 80%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.7%
Corey Grant run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
82.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 7 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
82.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
81.6%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Avery Young) to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+7
80.3%
Daniel Carlson punt for 54 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 7 yds to the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5121% → 20%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
79.2%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
79.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to AJ DerbySimilar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
79.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Cody HollisterSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+13
80.2%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 48 yds , Quan Bray returns for 13 yds to the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 1:1582% → 81%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
82.0%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 20 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
82.8%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 8 yds D'haquille Williams fumbled, forced by Tiquention Coleman, recovered by AubSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
83.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
82.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
83.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to C.J. UzomahSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
83.0%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+4
81.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 4 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
80.6%
Daniel Carlson 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:4880% → 88%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
80.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
80.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for no gain to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+6
78.4%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Corey Grant for 6 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
79.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
78.9%
Nick Marshall run for 5 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+28
79.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Melvin Ray for 28 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
81.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 12 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
81.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
88.0%
Nick Marshall run for 19 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3114% → 14%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Patrick Arinze for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
86.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius WilsonSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+18
86.4%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 42 yds , Quan Bray returns for 18 yds to the Aub 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
88.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the Ark 46 Cameron Artis-Payne fumbled, forced by Tevin Beanum, recovered by Ark Rohan GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:1017% → 16%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
83.5%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+17
82.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 17 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
81.5%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+5
81.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 5 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-6
81.9%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
84.5%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 23 yds, downed at the Aub 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:5387% → 85%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+19
86.9%
Corey Grant run for 19 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
87.1%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 16 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
88.1%
Corey Grant run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 6
50
-4
88.2%
Nick Marshall run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-5
86.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 15
OWN 41
0
86.3%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
85.1%
Daniel Carlson punt for 44 yds, downed at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18INT TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:1616% → 5%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
84.1%
Korliss Marshall run for 3 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+33
93.1%
Brandon Allen pass intercepted for a TD Jermaine Whitehead return for 33 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
95.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:287% → 6%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
93.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Brey Cook) to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
93.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 15 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
92.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jonathan Williams for a loss of 3 yards Jonathan Williams fumbled, forced by Robenson Therezie, recovered by Ark Jonathan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+6
93.7%
Korliss Marshall run for 6 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
93.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
93.6%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 13 yds · 4:4495% → 97%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
95.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 13 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+28
95.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 28 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
95.7%
Nick Marshall run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
95.8%
Nick Marshall run for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+5
95.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
96.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
96.1%
Corey Grant run for 11 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
96.2%
Nick Marshall run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+6
96.3%
Corey Grant run for 6 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-5
96.3%
Nick Marshall sacked by Taiwan Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+45
97.2%
Daniel Carlson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:553% → 3%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Demetrius Wilson) to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
96.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Korliss Marshall for 14 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
96.6%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
96.6%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter Henry, broken up by Justin GarrettSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
96.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-7
96.7%
Brandon Allen sacked by Cassanova McKinzy for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
97.1%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 52 yds, downed at the Aub 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22PUNT TD
8 plays · 8 yds · 4:3097% → 100%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+32
97.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 32 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
97.9%
Nick Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+15
97.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 15 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
98.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
98.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+7
98.3%
Corey Grant run for 7 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
98.4%
Corey Grant run for 24 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Corey Grant run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:521% → 1%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.8%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
99.8%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+14
99.8%
Peyton Barber run for 14 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:39
Brandon Allen pass intercepted for a TD Jermaine Whitehead return for 33 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+9
TD · Q2 4:28
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q3 10:42
Nick Marshall run for 19 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com