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MISS

Ole Miss 41 at Vanderbilt 3

VAN
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Nissan Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:53 · Colby Cooke punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Home team on offense−8.4Pregame prior−26.9Score differential−3.2Garbage-time factor−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:28: Jaylen Walton run for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK) — MISS win probability +0.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:19: Andrew Fletcher 25 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +2.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:42: Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK) — MISS win probability +2.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:10: Stephen Rivers pass intercepted for a TD Cliff Coleman return for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK) — MISS win probability +6.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:29: I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK) — MISS win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:22VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:06MISS 4th & 13 at VAN 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:11VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 45, down 10
    Close callPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:19MISS 4th & 8 at VAN 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:53VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:07VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:38VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 41, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:22VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 27, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:02MISS 4th & 1 at VAN 2, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:19VAN 4th & 2 at MISS 2, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:23VAN 4th & 9 at MISS 9, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:06MISS 4th & 3 at VAN 30, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:34VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 30, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:28MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:42MISS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:10MISS Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:29MISS Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:02MISS Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2687% → 86%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.5%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
13.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 14 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
13.7%
Jaylen Walton run for 6 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
14.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+5
14.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
14.5%
Bo Wallace run for 4 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
14.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 2 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+5
14.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 5 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
15.0%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Jaylen WaltonSimilar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
15.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 12 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
14.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:5315% → 15%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
14.8%
Ralph Webb run for 11 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
15.0%
Ralph Webb run for 11 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
15.2%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
15.5%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
15.5%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
15.4%
Colby Cooke punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 5:0985% → 84%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
15.2%
Mark Dodson run for 7 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+20
15.2%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 20 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
15.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 9 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-1
15.1%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
15.4%
Jeremy Liggins run for 2 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
15.4%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 9 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+3
15.4%
DeVante Kincade run for 3 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
15.5%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 27 yds to the Vandy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
15.6%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 6Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 0
OPP 6
-10
15.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Fahn Cooper) to the Vandy 16Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 0
OPP 16
+3
15.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
16.2%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
16.4%
Andrew Fletcher 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4916% → 17%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
16.2%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
16.2%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
16.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Channing Ward) to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
16.5%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
16.7%
Dallas Rivers run for 4 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
16.8%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
16.6%
Colby Cooke punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
19 plays · 72 yds · 5:4583% → 85%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
17.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
16.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+20
16.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 20 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
16.5%
Bo Wallace sacked by Caleb Azubike for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 36Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
16.7%
Mark Dodson run for no gain to the Vandy 36Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+21
16.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 21 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
16.8%
Bo Wallace run for 2 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
16.9%
Bo Wallace run for 3 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+5
17.2%
Bo Wallace pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 5 yds to the Vandy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-6
16.9%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 11Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
17.1%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Derrick JonesSimilar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 0
OPP 11
+9
17.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ryan White) to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
16.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Fahn Cooper) to the Vandy 7Similar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 0
OPP 7
-5
16.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Fahn Cooper) to the Vandy 12Similar
Q2 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
17.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 4 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
17.2%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 9:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
17.4%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 9:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
14.9%
Andrew Fletcher 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:1417% → 17%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
16.6%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
16.6%
Dallas Rivers run for 1 yd to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+13
16.4%
Stephen Rivers pass complete to Kris Kentera for 13 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
16.7%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Dallas RiversSimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-13
16.7%
Stephen Rivers sacked by Robert Nkemdiche for a loss of 13 yards to the Vandy 20 VANDERBILT Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Stephen Rivers) to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 23
OWN 20
+12
16.1%
Ralph Webb run for 12 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
16.7%
Colby Cooke punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:0385% → 88%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
15.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 18 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
14.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 8 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+17
14.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 17 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
13.9%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
14.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 9 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
14.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
11.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 3:2311% → 10%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
10.9%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
10.8%
Dallas Rivers run for 4 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-5
11.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Andrew Jelks) to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+11
10.5%
Stephen Rivers pass complete to Steven Scheu for 11 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
11.3%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
11.0%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 3
50
-5
11.1%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Spencer Pulley) to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
10.1%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+1
9.9%
Colby Cooke punt for 47 yds , Anthony Alford returns for 1 yd to the Miss 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9END OF HALF
7 plays · 48 yds · 0:5590% → 94%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
10.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+9
9.7%
Bo Wallace run for 9 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+31
9.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 31 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
7.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 6 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+5
5.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 5 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
5.8%
Bo Wallace sacked by Caleb Azubike for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10INT TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4510% → 3%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
9.5%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+39
3.3%
Stephen Rivers pass intercepted for a TD Cliff Coleman return for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:274% → 3%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
3.5%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 33Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+8
3.2%
Stephen Rivers pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 8 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
3.4%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+7
3.3%
Colby Cooke punt for 45 yds , Anthony Alford returns for 7 yds to the Miss 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:0197% → 99%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
3.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-8
3.2%
Bo Wallace sacked by Vince Taylor for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+21
3.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 21 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
3.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 8 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
2.6%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+17
2.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 17 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
2.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 25 yds to the Vandy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
2.4%
DeVante Kincade run for 3 yds to the Vandy 11Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+9
2.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 9 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:581% → 1%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.4%
C.J. Duncan run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
0.9%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
0.9%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Kris KenteraSimilar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
0.9%
Colby Cooke punt for 41 yds, downed at the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:1399% → 99%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
1.3%
Mark Dodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
1.2%
Ryan Buchanan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+13
1.2%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 13 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
1.0%
Mark Dodson run for 2 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+2
1.0%
Mark Dodson run for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+14
0.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tre Bell) to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
0.8%
Ryan Buchanan pass incomplete to Jeremy LigginsSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
0.8%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 13 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
0.8%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 5 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+9
0.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 9 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
0.7%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Quintavius Burdette for 7 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
0.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Vandy 4Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
0.6%
DeVante Kincade run for 2 yds to the Vandy 2Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
0.7%
DeVante Kincade run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15DOWNS
17 plays · 81 yds · 6:310% → 0%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
0.3%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+28
0.3%
Ralph Webb run for 28 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
0.3%
Dallas Rivers run for 4 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+10
0.2%
Dallas Rivers run for 10 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
0.3%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+15
0.2%
Stephen Rivers pass complete to Steven Scheu for 15 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
0.2%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Trey WilkinsSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
0.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
0.2%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Chandler DorrellSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+8
0.2%
Stephen Rivers pass complete to Steven Scheu for 8 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.2%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Miss 6Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
0.1%
Stephen Rivers pass complete to Kellen Williams for 5 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
0.1%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 2Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.1%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
0.4%
DeVante Kincade run for 6 yds to the Miss 8 DeVante Kincade fumbled, recovered by Vandy Vince Taylor , return for 3 yds to the Miss 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q4 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
0.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Miss 4Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 0
OPP 4
-5
0.1%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 9Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.2%
Stephen Rivers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.2%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q4 10:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
0.1%
Tommy Openshaw 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 6:09100% → 100%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.2%
Jeremy Liggins run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
0.2%
Mark Dodson run for 9 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
0.2%
Mark Dodson run for 1 yd to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+8
0.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 8 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
0.2%
Jeremy Liggins run for 3 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
0.1%
Ryan Buchanan run for 12 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
0.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
0.1%
Ryan Buchanan run for 6 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-1
0.1%
Jeremy Liggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
0.2%
Ryan Buchanan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:260% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Kris KenteraSimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Kris KenteraSimilar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+24
0.1%
Colby Cooke punt for 49 yds , Markell Pack returns for 24 yds to the Miss 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20END OF GAME
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
0.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 9 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+15
0.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 15 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
0.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 4 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
0.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+2
0.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:10
Stephen Rivers pass intercepted for a TD Cliff Coleman return for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)
-6.2
TD · Q2 4:42
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)
-2.6
FG · Q2 9:19
Andrew Fletcher 25 yd FG GOOD
-2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com