2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreSHSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:34 · Lachlan Edwards punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:23: Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 28 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:56: Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:28: Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 18 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:15: Brandon Harris run for 46 yds for a TD, (Two pt rush, Kenny Hilliard GOOD) — SHSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SHSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 12:08SHSU 4th & 20 at SHSU 15, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q1 7:56SHSU 4th & 2 at LSU 21, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%57% to convertField goal3.2%−0.174% to makePunt2.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 10:34SHSU 4th & 2 at SHSU 43, down 27Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:43SHSU 4th & 9 at LSU 49, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 2:05LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 30, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q2 0:41SHSU 4th & 13 at LSU 48, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 12:20LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 46, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 10:24SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 22, down 35Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:29LSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 45, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.137% to convertField goal99.7%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 6:06SHSU 4th & 5 at SHSU 30, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 3:35LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 26, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 12:24SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 23, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:12SHSU 4th & 20 at SHSU 36, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.110% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:00SHSU 4th & 14 at LSU 42, down 56Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.119% to convertField goal0.0%30% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q2 8:15LSU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick99.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call99.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSHSUDrive 1INT6 plays · 26 yds · 1:052% → 2%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.4%
Jared Johnson pass intercepted Dwayne Thomas return for no gain to the LSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD1 play · 94 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+94
98.4%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 94 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:122% → 2%
LSUDrive 4TD6 plays · 59 yds · 1:3798% → 98%
SHSUDrive 5DOWNS8 plays · 54 yds · 2:202% → 2%
LSUDrive 6TD9 plays · 79 yds · 3:5098% → 99%
SHSUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:562% → 2%
Q1 2:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
98.4%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to LaDarius Brown SAM HOUSTON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Donald Jackson III) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD13 plays · 80 yds · 3:5598% → 99%
SHSUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 2:371% → 1%
Q2 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+16
99.1%
Jared Johnson pass complete to LaDarius Brown for 16 yds to the SmHou 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
99.1%
Jared Johnson sacked by Jermauria Rasco for a loss of 2 yards to the SmHou 33Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
99.1%
Lachlan Edwards punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD7 plays · 81 yds · 1:5099% → 99%
SHSUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 1:161% → 1%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
99.5%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Keshawn Hill for 11 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamal Adams) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 22 yds · 4:2899% → 100%
Q2 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+7
99.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to John Diarse for 7 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
99.5%
Anthony Jennings run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 30 Anthony Jennings fumbled, recovered by LSU Anthony JenningsSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.5%
Jamie Keehn punt for 56 yds , Trenier Orr returns for 2 yds to the SmHou 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 36 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q2 1:40
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+3
99.7%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Keshawn Hill for 3 yds to the SmHou 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+15
99.7%
LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Jermauria Rasco) to the SmHou 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
99.6%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Keshawn Hill for 10 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q3 12:20
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Jamie Keehn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trenier Orr at the SmHou 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:460% → 0%
LSUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q3 7:29
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Jamie Keehn punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trenier Orr at the SmHou 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 18FUMBLE1 play · -11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-11
99.9%
Jared Johnson sacked by D.J. Welter for a loss of 11 yards to the SmHou 1 Jared Johnson fumbled, forced by Danielle Hunter, recovered by LSU Deion Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q3 6:06
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Lachlan Edwards punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
SHSUDrive 22INT7 plays · 66 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
99.9%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Yedidiah Louis for 8 yds to the SmHou 37Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+48
99.9%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Yedidiah Louis for 48 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+18
99.9%
Jared Johnson pass intercepted Rickey Jefferson return for 18 yds to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
99.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 22 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 15 yds to the SmHou 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+15
99.9%
Harris, Brandon pass incomplete to Dupre, Malachi, PENALTY SAMHOUSTON pass interference (Orr, Trenier) 15 yards to the SAMHOUSTON5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 8 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:290% → 0%
Q4 12:24
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+30
100.0%
Lachlan Edwards punt for 49 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 30 yds to the SmHou 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25TD4 plays · 42 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
SHSUDrive 26PUNT9 plays · 1 yds · 2:480% → 0%
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-9
100.0%
Don King III sacked by Sione Teuhema for a loss of 9 yards to the SmHou 37Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 19
OWN 37
-6
100.0%
Don King III sacked by Dwayne Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the SmHou 31Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 20
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Lachlan Edwards punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27FUMBLE7 plays · 40 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+17
100.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 17 yds to the SmHou 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
100.0%
Brandon Harris run for a loss of 5 yards to the SmHou 34 Brandon Harris fumbled, recovered by LSU Brandon Harris Brandon Harris run for 10 yds to the SmHou 34Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+7
100.0%
Brandon Harris run for 7 yds to the SmHou 36 Brandon Harris fumbled, forced by Tyrel Stokes, recovered by LSU Brandon Harris , return for a loss of 9 yards to the SmHou 36 Brandon Harris fumbled, recovered by SmHou Conterez PierceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 28DOWNS8 plays · 22 yds · 3:080% → 0%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
100.0%
King III, Don pass incomplete to Louis, Yedidiah, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Paris, Ed) 15 yards to the LSU38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SAMHOUSTON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
100.0%
Don King III sacked by Kendell Beckwith for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 18
OPP 46
-10
100.0%
Don King III sacked by Sione Teuhema for a loss of 10 yards to the SmHou 44Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 28
OWN 44
+14
100.0%
Don King III pass complete to Rickey Smith for 14 yds to the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 3:56
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 13:28
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 18 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q1 10:23
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 28 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
+0.1